Official results of the October 2 elections in Latvia

It has been known already that political unions are inherently unstable and during last parliamentary elections only political unions were elected into the Latvian Parliament (Saeima). Purists would remind me that Harmony Centre has transformed into the political force which tends to position itself as a social democratic party. That is right but the heterogeneity of its membership, lack of truly democratic decision making process within that party, and relatively young age of the Harmony Centre party allows me to categorize it more like a political union rather than a stable party. But the internal composition of the political unions is not the issue I want to discuss tonight but rather to publish the latest significant news about the late elections.

Since almost two weeks it is announced that he Unity won the most seats (33) in the 100 member parliament, Harmony Center (29) came second, Union of Greens of Farmers (22) came third, and All for Latvia & For Good Latvia got eight seats each. The possible size and program of the governing coalition is still negotiated and incumbent Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis is prime figure behind this process.

Positions of different political unions was known so far but exact knowledge about who is who in the new parliament was officially announced only today. Since we have the official information (see below) it is possible to finally evaluate possible candidates for ministerial positions and their replacements into the new parliament. That would be most probably the next entry, because there is still about two weeks until the first session of the 10th Saeima, and the negotiations about the new governing coalition are bitter at times when all attention should be actually focused on the overhaul of the antiquated economic structure and boosting "green shoots" of the nascent economy.




Photo: Ieva Čīka/LETA

UNITY (33)

From the Riga electoral district: Ģirts Valdis Kristovskis (PS), Ojārs Kalniņš (PS), Lolita Čigāne (PS), Rasma Kārkliņa (PS), Ints Dālderis (JL), Inguna Rībena (JL), Andris Buiķis (JL), Ilze Viņķele (PS), Imants Lieģis (PS).

From the Livonian electoral district: Valdis Dombrovskis (JL), Artis Pabriks (SCP), Ilma Čepāne (PS), Ainars Latkovskis (JL), Ina Druviete (PS), Edvards Smiltēns (SCP), Andris Vilks (PS), Arvils Ašeradens (PS), Dzintars Ābiķis (SCP), Guntars Galvanovskis (JL), Dzintra Hirša (PS) un Ingmārs Čaklais (PS).

From the Latgale electoral district: Aleksejs Loskutovs (SCP) un Kārlis Šadurskis (PS),

From the electoral district in Courland: Solvita Āboltiņa (JL), Janīna Kursīte-Pakule (PS), Silva Bendrāte (JL) un Ingrīda Circene (JL).

From the electoral district in Semigallen: Sarmīte Ēlerte (PS), Artis Kampars (JL), Dzintars Zaķis (JL), Atis Lejiņš (SCP), Aigars Štokenbergs (SCP) un Klāvs Olšteins (JL).


HARMONY CENTER (29)

From the Riga electoral district: Jānis Urbanovičs, Sergejs Dolgopolovs, Andrejs Klementjevs, Artūrs Rubiks, Boriss Cilevičs, Sergejs Mirskis, Nikolajs Kabanovs, Igors Pimenovs, Mihails Zemļinskis, Igors Meļņikovs, Aleksejs Holostovs, Ņikita Ņikoforovs un Igors Zujevs.

From the Livonian electoral district: Ivans Klementjevs, Jānis Ādamsons, Juris Silovs, Aleksandrs Sakovskis.

From the Latgale electoral district: Jānis Tutins, Raimonds Rubiks, Ivans Ribakovs, Vladimirs Nikonovs, Aleksandrs Jakimovs, Aleksejs Burunovs, Sergejs Fjodorovs, Dmitrijs Rodionovs,

From the electoral district in Courland: Valērijs Agešins, Valērijs Kravcovs.

From the electoral district in Semigallen: Valentīns Grigorjevs un Vitālijs Orlovs.


UNION OF GREENS AND FARMERS (22)

From the Riga electoral district: Raimonds Vējonis, Kārlis Seržants, Jānis Strazdiņš,

From the Livonian electoral district: Jānis Dūklavs, Ingmārs Līdaka, Iveta Grigule, Armands Krauze, Vitauts Staņa, Andris Bērziņš

From the electoral district in Semigallen: Augusts Brigmanis, Andris Bērziņš, Uldis Augulis, Dace Reinika, Aivars Dronka

From the Latgale electoral district: Staņislavs Šķesters, Jānis Klaužs un Rihards Eigims

From the electoral district in Courland: Gundars Daudze, Aija Barča, Dana Reizniece, Oskars Zīds un Jānis Vucāns.


FOR GOOD LATVIA (8)

No Rīgas ievēlēti - Ainārs un Inese Šleseri (LPP/LC)

No Kurzemes ievēlēts Edgars Zalāns (TP)

No Vidzemes ievēlēti: Māris Kučinskis (TP) un Guntis Ulmanis

No Latgales ievēlēti: Rita Strode (LPP/LC) un Imants Bekešs,

No Zemgales ievēlēts Andris Šķēle (TP)


ALL FOR LATVIA (8)

No Rīgas ievēlēti: Dzintars Rasnačs (TB/LNNK) un Einārs Cilinskis (VL)

No Vidzemes ievēlēti: Raivis Dzintars (VL), Visvaldis Lācis (VL), Jānis Dombrava (VL)

No Latgales ievēlēta Inese Laizāne (VL)

No Kurzemes ievēlēts Gaidis Bērziņš (TB/LNNK)

No Zemgales ievēlēts Imants Parādnieks (VL)

P.S. Here are links to my latest articles on LV elections in Postimees, Delfi, Ukrainian daily, and TBT

Apņēmība un slava

Latvieši met izaicinājumu vispārzināmām patiesībām, atkal ievēlot krīzes valdību
Latvijas nesenie notikumi ir likuši pārskatīt vairākas modernās politekonomijas aksiomas. Pirmkārt, saglabāt stabilu valūtu sabrukuma apstākļos ir pašnāvnieciski. Latvija saglabāja savu eiro piesaistīto valūtu un ir atguvusi konkurētspēju, pateicoties t.s. iekšējai devalvācijai - lielu sabiedrisko tēriņu un algu samazināšanai. Finansu optimizācija pielīdzināma ap 14% no iekšzemes kopprodukta.
Pastāv aksioma, ka vēlētāji soda valdības, kuras uzspiež stingru ekonomisko politiku. Bet premjerministra Valda Dombrovska vadītā koalīcija uzvarēja 2. oktobra parlamenta vēlēšanās ar 58,6% balsu, par spīti tam, ka pārraudzīja iekšzemes kopprodukta krišanos par rekordlieliem - 18% - 2009. gadā. V. Dombrovska partija Vienotība gandrīz divkāršoja savu vietu skaitu parlamentā - tā ieguva 33 no 100 vietām.
Vēlētāji atspēkoja arī citu pieņēmumu,- ka nauda neizbēgami izkropļo politisko procesu, sevišķi nabadzīgajās valstīs. Galvenā oligarhu partiju apvienība Par labu Latviju tika sagrauta līdz 8 vietām, kaut gan tā bagātīgi šķieda naudu priekšvēlēšanu kampaņai, no-pērkot pat vispopulārāko neatkarīgo avīzi valstī. Vēlētāji, izrādās, pamatoti to vainoja par neapdomīgu politku treknajos gados. Pirms tam šīm pie apvienības piederīgām partijām Saeimā bija 33 vietas.
Ārzemnieki, kuri aizdeva Latvijai 7,5 miljardus eiro, ir atviegloti. Ekonomika atkal pieaug ar straujo eksporta un rūpniecības produkcijas kāpumu (gan saglabājas augsts bezdarbs ). Bet V.Dombrovskim ir jārisina jauna problēma. Ir parādījies jauns politiskais spēks –Saskaņas Centrs – centriski kreisa partija, kas galvenokārt apvieno etniskos krievus un pa daļai arī tos latviešus, kas ir vīlušies esošajās partijās. Saskaņas centrs jaunajā parlamentā ieguvis 29 vietas.
Saskaņas centrs varētu mēģināt aizvilināt Dombrovska galvenos partnerus - Zaļo un Zemnieku savienību, kura ieguvusi 22 vietas. Lai to novērstu, Dombrovskis varētu piedāvāt SC darījumu - nākt vismazākās koalīcijas partijas vietā, kurai ir 8 vietas. Tā ir ultranacionālistu apvienība ar netīkamām manierēm.
SC jau ir pie varas galvaspilsētā Rīgā. Taču ievest prokrievisku partiju nacionālā valdībā būtu liels politisks risks, un tāpēc Dombrovskis varētu izvēlēties turēties kopā ar jau esošajiem partneriem. Jaunā valdība jāizveido līdz 2. novembrim. Tad jāsāk strādāt pie nākamā gada budžeta. Tas nozīmēs vēl vairāk samazināt izdevumus un palielināt nodokļus, lai izpildītu starptautisko aizdevēju prasību - ievērot 6% budžeta deficīta no iekšzemes kopprodukta. Bet, lai izpildītu valdības mērķi - 2014. gadā ieviest eiro-, ar to varētu arī nepietikt.

P.S. Good friend Janis Irbe from Geneva sent me translation of this The Economist article and asked me to publish it, because he thinks it is essential to spread this info also in Latvian!

Parliamentary elections in Latvia - democracy won!

There is still about an hour till closing the election stations, but one is clear already - such a surge of electoral activity Latvia has not witnessed since 2002! In the 2002 parliamentary elections total of 72.5% voters participated, while during last parliamentary elections this number dropped to the scanty 61.5%. Representative democracy without voters controlling their representatives can turn out to be a fiction and between 1993-2010 the Latvian representative democracy was neither representative nor democratic. The ill famous "locomotive principle", which was finally evicted from the election law in 2009, allowed to manipulate election results and thus to ossify Latvian political culture. The fact that the locomotive principle was erased from the law is not a panacea and improvement of the political culture I envisage only for the 2014 parliamentary elections, because for the future parliament and government there are number of titanic economic tasks ahead of them.

The number of voters in Latvia at 16.00 stood at 45.6% today and this number is already greater than it was during 2006 elections. Also all electoral station around the world report unusually high electoral activity that could increase the total activity by a solid percentage point. My conservative predictions for the electoral participation stand at 67% and information from Riga electoral districts confirm that folks are standing in queues, which could shot the participation rate also over 70%.

This fact is the best news tonight and allow me to gladly announce that democracy is lively in Latvia! Possibly good election result would only confirm Latvian voters that their vote counts, and that is not a small thing! Possibly good result of these elections could sideline traditional Latvian oligarchic parties from power and I would not be surprised if partisan electors themselves would sideline such oligarchs as Andris Šķēle from power. Preliminary results could deliver devastating results for the former president Guntis Rumpītis-Ulmanis who foolishly believed in his vainglory. But lets leave predictions aside now, because even more intriguing would be to follow the future who is who's of the Latvian parliament.

The exit poll results would be revealed in 10 minutes and therefore I better finish now, because the most important fact has taken place already - the voters believed in their own sound judgement and they cast their vote in order to participate in making Latvia's and their own future for the next four years! Long live democracy!!!