New polling trends in Latvia?

After rather lengthy period decided to drop some line in this blog. Reasons for my absence from this medium is my primary duty - my dissertation research. The latter proceeds accordingly and as soon I am done with the first draft I would be back & writing in this blog.

The reason for my decision to drop the line today are the latest results of the ''Latvijas Fakti(LF)'' polling firm. Already month ago the LF results were showing shifts in trend that started in the Latvian political realm since March 2007. Since March 2007, when the former president Vaira Vike Freiberga vetoed the law on security organizations and the Major of Ventspils was incarcerated, the disappearance of credibility for governing authority started to prevail in Latvian political realm. Very much due to constellation of political forces and inexperience of nascent civil society the president did not manage calling for early elections, and it only enforced the prevailing trend.

I have had quite a few colleagues who have pointed out to the fact that LF information sometimes lacks trustworthiness. I basically agree with such comments and while working with the Eurobarometer 2004-2009 biannual reports I also notices general sloppiness of LV reports in comparison with Lithuanian or Estonian ones. It is another discussion why was it so, and who are major culprits for LV Eurobarometer reports being inconsistent, but now back to the LF latest report.

The latest LF report shows continuous trend of growing support for the russophone Harmony Center party (18.5%), but the report specifically focuses on the increase of support (9.1%) for the Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF). Basic argument here is that UGF has been opposing the administrative reform of Latvian regional governments, and probably there is some grain of truth here. I am more interested on the change of prevailing trend however. And the trend of decline for almost all domestic governing institutions (government, parliament, political parties, court system) is vividly exposed in Eurobarometer 2001-2009 reports. The DnB Barometer trend also reports the decline of governing authority and embedded pessimism among the Latvian demos. But here is my figure which I updated this morning. Basically and using the LF publicly available data I have distinguished between three underlying ''forces'' in the Latvian party politics. I added the support for the governing coalition parties, the opposition parties are put together with other parties who have no representation in the parliament, and I have added also the number of undecided and alienated voters as entity of their own.

The latest two (January and February) LF reports show a positive shift in an overwhelmingly negative worldview of the Latvian public. Edward Lucas in his latest Economist article also argues about ''green shoots'' of the Latvian statecraft. Probably Latvia has hit the bottom of economic decline and the situation has initially stabilized. The Eurobarometer shows that Estonia in almost all measurements have reached the EU mean average level, and while Latvia and Lithuania are lagging behind. It somehow reminded also the speech of Vjaceslavs Dombrovskis during the Riga 2009 Conference. In his speech he drew analogies between the simultaneous group of countries of East Asia and the Baltic States (3B), while specifically pointing out that while Estonian development could turn out like South Korean one for the two Southernmost Baltic states the lot of Philippines could fall out... .

For the sake of argument I have also added some latest graphs from Eurobarometer. It is hard to predict whether the stabilization in Latvia would hold for long, because it very much depends on the present government to deliver balanced policies. However, if one analyzes the latest data on predictions about employment opportunities in their nation state, then it is possible to discover that while Estonians look optimistically forward and Lithuanians are increasingly pessimists, those are Latvians who have ''stabilized'' their formerly negative predictions.

Furthermore, the ability of government to deliver consensual and balanced policies very much depends on the ability of Latvian democratic forces to present viable economic development program that would help Latvia to climb itself out from the present pit of mismanagement. The ability of democratic forces to find consensus under the label ''Unity'' is promising and the political union would hold its founding congress in Riga on March 6, 2010. Lets wait for the congress and see whether the present stabilization would be cemented, and how the policies for reversal of deindustrialization would be laid out.

P.S. Here is the link to my latest piece in the Baltic Times (TBT).

P.P.S. For the sake of records here is the January TBT article, my latest ''Postimees'' article, and the December TBT article.

08.08.08

At 8 o'clock on this ominous day the Beijing Olympics started, and before this event the military confrontation between Republic of Georgia and breakaway Republic, South - Ossetia escalated. Major media channels are covering both events and I really have no wish to comment those events. Instead there was latest popularity poll published in Diena today. Since the failed referendum some of the majority coalition members keep repeating that it failed due to the fact, that the majority (900 000) who did not appear in voting stations were AGAINST the referendum agenda. To prove how ludicrous are such announcements here is the result of the poll about the popularity of Latvian parliament and government.

Trust of the Latvian parliament in July & trust of the Cabinet in July, 2008

Does not trust - green

Trust - red

Do not know & N/A - grey

P.S. For those of you reading in Latvian here is a piece I wrote today.

Possible referendum scenarios for August 2, 2008 (updated with charts)

There is nothing substantially new to add about the forthcoming referendum, because positions of civil society and government are clear I thought prior starting to write this piece. The Latvian parliamentary majority clique first has to show who they really are during the July 17 plenary session. The referendum campaign should be going on full swing by then. Thus, is it already possible to project the approximate participation rate, and how many of the voters would vote AYE in forthcoming referendums? Yes, and I am quite sure that the number of 330 000 citizens coming to voting stations would be surpassed this August, and mostly due to economic factors (high inflation, closing factories, hence increasing feeling of insecurity).

But while talking about the sheer participation numbers Vladimir Chepurov had an emotional blog entry in today's Diena (in Russian). Leaving aside his ideas about the importance of the 25% of ethnically Russian electorate, he gave me a hunch to contemplate about. Namely the mean participation rate during four parliamentary elections (1995, 1998, 2002, 2006) in Latvia is 69,95%, and it has declined below the 70% mark due to the very low participation rate during the 2006 elections (62,23%). Due to negative demographic situation and emigration to the Emerald Island and Misty Albion the number of active voters has decreased. Nevertheless, the fact is that there are 1512755 electors, and 35824 of them officially reside outside Latvia with double citizenship. In addition to that about 27 500 Latvian citizens officially reside in Ireland.

It makes it so that for a positive outcome in both referendums (August 2 & 23) one needs a half of total number of electors, and that means that there is a need after 756 377 AYE votes. If one divides the number of electors with the mean participation percentage (69,95%), then it would make 1 058 928 electors appearing in voting stations on August 2. If the participation rate would be as low as during the 2006 parliamentary elections (62,23%), when for example the Irish Latvian contingent showed very little attention, then only 937 908 electors would appear.

Alright, now lets see and compare the votes given to the majority clique and how much opposition got in 2006 elections. The majority (TP, ZZS, LC/LPP, TB/LNNK) got 469924 or 51,79% of total votes. The two biggest opposition parties (JL & SC) got roughly 270 000 or 30,8% of the total vote. Since Spring 2008 the TB/LNKK has split, and fraction of its supporters has joined ranks of opposition Civic Union party.

There were 330 000 AYE votes during last summer referendum about changes in security laws with no real campaign and without any support from the president/s, thus we may hypothetically assume that (330000-270000) about 60 000 voters who were initially tricked by governing majority voted in that referendum for opposition cause. Therefore, to conclude we could envisage two rough scenarios here.

Scenario I (positive): In case the inflation, official support from former and incumbent presidents, rising unemployment, negative impact from events starting from virtual coup d'etat in December 31,2006 until sacking of A. Loskutovs as the head of KNAB in June 29, 2008, and finally a chance for citizens to meet&discuss during the XXIV Song Fest will have an effect, then roughly subtracting 469924 from 1058928 and adding 60 000= 649 004+ voters would vote AYE.

Scenario II (negative): In case the governing clique really has a clout over "their voters" (if voters are afraid to loose even the meagre welfare they have acquired during the "seven fat years of Mr Kalvītis") then roughly subtracting 469924 from 937908 = 467 984 voters would vote AYE only.

Eurobarometer and other polls show ever declining support for almost all institutions of the representative democracy, and about 22% of the voters would definitely not show up in voting stations. Thus, the number of 649 004 AYE votes is VERY optimistic, and for civil society to succeed campaign organizers MUST think how to get those 22% of alienated voters in and outside Latvia to the election booths. Thus, for the campaign to succeed there is a need to appeal to additional 108 000 low income and disillusioned voters. It is possible to make it happen, and the positive result now purely depends on a simple, smart and appealing campaign ORGANIZATION!


P.S. For those of you reading in Latvian I wrote a piece for Diena today.
P.P.S. And this is what Postimees writes about Latvia for those of you reading in Estonian.

Updated

Its Saturday morning and Apollo has published a second set of the DnB bank commissioned charts about

people's satisfaction and future expectations about the state of economy in Latvia.

Q: How would you evaluate the present state of economy in Latvia? (from left to right - very good, rather good, satisfactory, rather bad, very bad, hard to tell)

Q: Do you think that economic situation at the present moment gets better, does not change or gets worse? (from left to right - gets better, does not change, gets worse, hard to tell)

Q: While thinking about the state of Latvian economy after 12 months or comparing it with the present situation you rather think that... (from left to right - it will significantly improve, will improve slightly, no change, will rather deteriorate, it will significantly deteriorate, hard to tell)

Chances for successful referendum outcomes?

It sounds cynical, but deteriorating economic situation and stupid government announcements only accelerate options for positive outcome for both referendums. As if to emphasize my arguments also post-independence Latvia's first foreign minister Mr Jānis Jurkāns reiterates my arguments in today's article in Latvijas Avīze.

DnB bank commissioned a poll about the general perception of Latvian public about their well being, and it was published in Apollo today.

Q: Do you consider that overall situation develops in right direction in Latvia today? (Right, wrong, hard to tell.... from left to right)


Q: How would you evaluate the government performance? Ar you... (from let to right)

totally satisfied, rather satisfied, dissatisfied, totally dissatisfied, hard to tell?

June polling data (updated - news from the Riga City Council)

Today's Diena published monthly pollster about the trust in political parties in Latvia. The ominous trend that started in March 2007 continues and the number of undecided and alienated voters stay worryingly high. The number of undecided voters (30,2%) has reached the level of February 2008, and the disorientation of voters and ongoing saga with the former head of the KNAB probably explains it. Only one party from the governing coalition, the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) would pass the 5% threshold, that is the requested percentage of total votes in order to get into parliament. The opposition Russophone Reconciliation Centre (SC) has lost bits of their appeal due to ambivalent behavior in supporting opposition causes, but sometimes voting together with the governing coalition. Nevertheless they are steady leaders (10,5%) in polls for the last 1,5 years and I would predict that they would stay so, because they have always been in opposition.

Also it must be noted that right at this moment Latvia has reached almost the median point (the middle of it will be reached exactly in October 2008) of the four year election cycle. It means that the interest of general public about party political positions is generally vague now.

Q: For which party you think you would vote for, if parliamentary elections would take place tomorrow?
Data from www.diena.lv

The data shows another worrying trend. Namely the highest support among the governing coalition parties has the ZZS. It is the party without any noticeable policy proposals and weak politicians. The Minister of Agriculture Mārtiņš Roze (ZZS) just survived the vote of no confidence, although during his last six year tenure as the minister the sugar industry is being closed under his supervision and dairy industry is on the brink of collapse.

I personally supported the closure of sugar industry from the pure logic of international trade that says that if the world price for sugar is lower than Latvian produced that it is more reasonable to invest those monies in comparatively advantageous industry. Latvian consumers had to subsidize Latvian sugar producers, who due to their climate could not produce this sweet stuff as cheaply as in Australia, Brazil or Caribbean. Any economics textbook says that in order to transform the redundant industry the government must take care about the reeducation of the redundant workforce. In the meantime Mr Roze party colleague and Minister of Education Tatjana Koķe (ZZS) has done little to anything to reintegrate redundant workers from the closed sugar industry into the workforce. Vocation education in Latvia has collapsed over all, although she has been an integral part of the Latvian policy on education since 1999.

Also and more importantly, the nominal financier of the ZZS and still their PM candidate is the Maire of Ventspils, who was imprisoned in March 2007, but is being released on bail now. Among coalition party members there has not been any discussion about misdeeds of the Maire of Ventspils (they cant even sack him!!!), and if there is such a support for a party with such a equivocal background it makes me reckon that Latvian public is tired of democratic regime and better wishes to see authoritarian rule coming back. After the Loskutovs affair and the latest poll data I have followed the discussion forums in Diena, NRA and LA, and the outright disapproval about democracy and call for a strong hand is omnipresent in comments unfortunately... .

Updated

As to prove the raison d'etre of the alienated and undecided voters LETA just announced that the governing coalition of the Riga City Council could just have ceased to exist. The rainbow coalition consists of the People's Party (TP), First and Latvian Way party union (LC/LPP), Social Democrats (LSDSP) and Fatherland and Freedom (TB/LNNK) and Jānis Birks (TB/LNNK) is the Maire of Riga. The motion of no confidence was started by the opposition New Era (JL) party and its petition is being signed also by following persons from the Riga governing coalition - vice Maire Jānis Dinevičs (LSDSP), Edmunds Krastiņš (TP), Dainis Īvāns (LSDSP), Aris Lācis (TP), Baiba Rozentāle (TP), Andrejs Vilks (LSDSP), Jānis Karpovičs (LSDSP) and some members of "Dzimtene" fraction. The second vice maire Andris Ārgalis (TP) said that he would also sign the petition if there will be 30 signatures on it.

It is less than a year until the municipal elections in Latvia. Incumbent Maire of Riga is not really popular and corruption scandals have plagued the city particularly during the last 2 years. It is rumoured that if the coalition falls then JL would take the place of TB/LNNK. I guess that for JL such a move is suicidal, but to talk about the future coalition in the city of Riga we must wait till the news really prove the end of the existing coalition. It is particularly important now, because any changes in the Riga government in such a small country like Latvia inescapably would bring changes also in the national government.

The fall of the existing coalition is close, because Diena just announced (17.00CET) that the Maire Jānis Birks has offered New Era (JL) party to participate in the coalition. According to Birks the signatures of Social Democrats (LSDSP) on the petition only proves that LSDSP has exited from the governing coalition of the city of Riga, thus he offers the JL party to take Social Democrats place instead. If TP, LC/LPP would agree on such a move it would prove that Social Democrats were screwed, again. If JL would agree on entering the existing coalition, then I do not really see how determined they will be to lead the August 2 referendum campaign.

Anyway, there is a lot at stake now in the Riga City council, and it WILL affect also national political scene. The hot political summer has really started even disregarding the upcoming Song & Dance Festival, and lets wait till the news prove the new outcome from this political battle!

Stagnation of the ruling political class continues

Last events in the Latvian political theatre do not provide much optimism. Yesterday Mr Joaquin Almunia, EU Commissioner responsible for economic and monetary affairs came out with his bureau's forecast for the bloc of 27. New and adjusted basic economic indices for Latvia are bleak enough. While GDP forecast for 2008 is adjusted to 3,8% its the inflation that is predicted still to be the highest in the EU at the end of the 2008 - 15,8%.

Today's Diena published latest poll of the Latvijas Fakti.

Photo: www.diena.lv

The negative trend started already in March 2007 when those supporting present political class and alienating from democratic regime split after omenous announcement of the former president Vaira Vīķe Freiberga, and detention of the Maire of Ventspils that preceded the latter announcement. During Summer of 2007 the support for the governing quadrumvirate started to dip below the support for the opposition parties. The peak of the distrust against the ruling coalition reached at the end of October 2007. I already wrote about the reasons for such an absolute slump of trust in legitimacy before and here I would like to give a short comment on latest polling data.

The most negative trend is the high number of undecided voters and continuous increase (+ 2,5% in April) of the number of alienated voters (the lowest quintile of the graph=21,3%), or those who would definitely not go to elections. It means that today every voter out of five electors would definitely not go to elections. Thus, the rough estimate from the Central Election Bureau data about the total No. of voters in 2007 (1 495 199) would make it 291 800 alienated electors today.

The number of undecided or swing voters have dipped only slightly and as already said it is still 25.7% high. It is the opposition Reconciliation Centre (RC) party gained +1,3% and RC is a stable leader in the polls for quite some time allready. The newly founded Civic Union party has lost about 2,1% of its support in comparison with March data. Also Messrs Pabriks & Štokenbergs newly founded "Another Politics" has lost its support (by 0,8% points) due to the questionably received and ongoing signature collection campaign.

Only two parties from the ruling quadrumvirate - Union of Greens and Farmers and People's Party - have enough support to pass into parliament if elections would be tomorrow. However, the support of subseqently 7,7 and 6,6 percent of the electorate is too little in order to take a decisive action and lead the Latvia Inc. out of the economic malaise. Especially so, when the Prime Minister's party has scanty 3,8 % support of the electorate.

There is another option actually! To disregard the public opinion at all and make painful and thus needed structural reforms (cutting red tape and jump starting Latvian economy with overhaul of taxation system), because the support for the existing political class is irrevocably lost. Do they have guts for that, I doubt. Instincts to stay at power are stronger than abstract interests of the Latvian public in the long run, unfortunately.

March 2008 polling data

For which party you would vote, if Saeima elections would take place tomorrow? (Latvian citizens)

"Diena" published "Latvijas Fakti" latest gallups today. The pollster clearly outlines the trend leading to the end of the Godmanis government. While the PM is touring Sweden, and meeting Telia-Sonera and Swedish government officials with half baked assurances about possibility to build coal powered station and willingness to extend elctricity cable to Sweden, the situation is heating up home. The green, yellow and red lines in the graph above you show the undecided voters, supporters of opposition, and finally fans of coalition parties accordingly. It seems that by the choice of red color the authors of pollster are ironically pinpointing to the zone Latvian governing coalition happens to be endemically in.

In January the governing coalition was able to rise their approval ratings above the slump where the former PM Kalvītis had led the government. Latest trends, however, show that 2 out of 5 voters are undecided, almost 2 voters out of 5 would vote for opposition, and 1 out of 5 trusts present governing elite. In short, the government of Ivars Godmanis definitely will be short lived and the only question is whether the government would fall already this Spring or later this Summer? Linda Mūrniece (JL) in her blog reiterates rumours whirling in Saeima about not giving the PM more time than couple or four months. One of the JL heavyweights Mr Dans Titavs is spreading news that opposition JL could actually work together with TP, thus creating another storm in the Latvian political teacup. In order to understand where do Latvian political parties stand now, there is another graph from "Latvijas Fakti".


For which party you would vote, if Saeima elections would take place tomorrow? (Latvian citizens)

There are actually two very interesting parts on the graphs. First one is at the very end of the graph showing the percentage of undecided and disillusioned (nav izlēmis and nepiedalītos vēlēšanās) voters. The second interesting point is consists of three different trends, and certainly correlates to the simultaneous increase and decrease of the undecided and disillusioned voters. First, if one has a look on New Era (Jaunais Laiks) support then one may notice that it is collapsing. Second, the support for the biggest left wing and russophone party Reconciliation Centre (Saskaņas Centrs-SC) is steadily leading polls. And finally, the support for newly created organizations (they are still not official parties yet!) Kalniete & Kristovskis "Conservative Democrats" is steady, and Pabriks & Štokenbergs "Centre Party" support is rising.

What do I conclude from those graphs is that lack of clear ideologies is simply disorienting voters in Latvia. While the number of undecided (swing) voters decreases due to "new kids on the block", the number of disillusioned voters (who would definitely not go to elections) is increasing. Reason for that?

Many voters in Latvia unfortunately believe that politics shouls be morally sound as in the "West", and previous reasearch of A.Tabuns and T.Tīsenkopfs attest to that. Thus, instead of mutually working for betterment on ideological clarity of party programs there is still endemically low membership rate in political parties and also party leaderships follow the "iron rule of oligarchy" first pronounced by Gaetano Mosca.

Ethnic Latvian parties are still scrambling for spoils in the right wing. In the meantime the globalisation impact, trade liberalization, and transformation of economic system has increased voters appeal for liberal and leftist worldview. This political niche in ethnic Latvian political landscape is empty however, and it clearly correlates to the leadership of left wing SC on the top of the polls. The fact that leftist politics is led by russophone party in Latvia does not allow traditional ethnic Latvian voter to go after it, and unfortunately the ethnic divide makes the policy making as ridiculous as it is today.

Even though proposal of forming joint JL&TP government (such possibility was uttered by Dans Titavs(JL) and Gundars Bērziņš (TP)) sounds ideologically sound, it would be hard to salvage the lack of trust that has stagnated below 20% support of the electorate. Transfiguration of Latvian political landscape is ongoing. I would predict several unexpected surprises ahead of us in short term, and ironically the fall of the existing government would be the least surprising.