Esmu pieķēries emuāra ierakstam uz kuru pamudināja mans vēstuļu draugs. Disertācija un darba pienākumi nav ļāvuši laiku veltīt emuāru pierakstiem, lai arī dažkārt radās sajūta, ka varbūt vajadzēja vairāk pievērsties rakstībai brīvā formā. Tomēr laiks ir ierobežots, un tāpēc ar šo ierakstu centīšos ne tikai izvērst aprakstu par virsrakstā norādīto tēmu, bet arī iespēju robežās centīšos atbildēt uz Alehina uzdotajiem jautājumiem.
Latvijas politisko partiju jeb interešu grupu attīstība 2007-2009 satricinājumu rezultātā ir tēlaini izsakoties nonākusi atpakaļ 1991.g. sākumpunktā. Rietumu tradīcijas kopš I. Pasaules kara noteikušas, ka politisku partiju no interešu vai spiediena grupas atšķir skaidra ideoloģiska nostādne un masveidīgums. Aukstā kara beigas, tehnoloģiju un izglītības ietekme ir mainījušas tradicionālas Rietumu sabiedrības, jeb kā R.Inglehart to apzīmēja, ir notikusi "klusā revolūcija". Individuālisms un salīdzinošais labklājības pieaugums ir mainījis ierastos uzvedības paradumus, samazinājis vēlētāju uzticību politiskajām partijām labējā kā arī kreisajā socioekonomiskajā flangā. Šīs izmaiņas ir ietekmējušas Austrumeiropas valstis, un to skaitā ari Latviju.
Īss ievads
1990.g. sākumā Tautas Frontes un Interfrontes politiskās apvienības bija noteicošie spēki Augstākajā Padomē (AP), no kuriem tad pakāpeniski izšķīlās LC, Saskaņa Latvijai, Līdztiesība, Zemnieku savienība, Demokrātiskā partija Saimnieks, Tautsaimnieku politiskā apvienība, TB, Tautas saskaņas partija un "nemanot" izzuda LKP(!). Bija pārstāvēta arī Zaļā partija un LNNK, un patiesībā tas ir nozīmīgi, jo tieši šajās kustībās (domāju VAK un LNNK) bija pilsonisko grupu pārstāvji kuri atšķirībā no kādreizējās LKP nomenklatūras veidoja vienīgo t.s. grassroots alternatīvu 5.Saeimā (lai arī Zaļie neguva pārstāvniecību un iekļuva 1991.g. dibinātie Kristīgie Demokrāti).
Politiskā vide bija kļuvusi sadrumstalota, sekojot AP divu lielāko pol. apvienību tradīcju inercei Latvijā izveidojās politisko kultūru turpmākos gadus indējošais dalījums etniski definētajās partijās. 1992.g. ar modifikācijām pieņemtais vēlēšanu likums ļāva nodrošināt zināmu sistēmas stabilitāti, jo ierindas Latvijas vēlētāju bija vienkārši mānīt ar 5. kolonnu un citiem mītiem. Bez tik nepieciešamajām disksijām sabiedrībā atjaunojot 1934.g. 15. maijā pātraukto Satversmes darbību, vienošanās par valsts turpmāko attīstību nebija notikusi, kura ļāva izveidot auglīgu augsni SIA Latvijas republika... Visam pa vidu likumdevējiem "aizmirsās" mantas un nodokļu sākumdeklarēšanās, tik nepieciešamās reformas policijā, izglītībā, veselības aizsardzībā, un sociālā nodrošinājuma sistēma tika atliktas (jo īstermiņa intereses prevalēja) un "tautiskā anarhija" varēja netraucēti turpināties līdz pat 2007.g., kad pilsoniskā sabiedrība atkal pamodās, un vienam premjeram nomainot otru, beidzot nonācām līdz Valdim Dombrovskim.
Dombrovska valdība|s un V
Pieņemu, ka nozīmīgākais iemesls, kāpēc V.Dombrovskis 2009.g. martā pārņēma varas grožus, bija apjukums Latvijas tradicionālajā politiskajā nomenklatūrā, kura vairs nemācēja izžonglēt sev optimālāko varas nepārtrauktības formulu. To ietekmēja starptautiskā finanšu krīze un ES līdzdalības paģērētās poltiskās pārmaiņas ar kuru dziļumu nomenklatūras pārstāvji iespējams nebija rēķinājušies. Tāpēc veicot valsts un pašvaldību pārvaldes aparāta un funkciju sanāciju visupirms no "kuģa nolēca" TP. Valdošajā koalīcijā viedokļu saskaņošana "sanācijas apstākļos" noteikti atšķiras no tautsaimniecības izaugsmes laika. Tāpēc skatoties uz 2010.g. 3. novembrī apstiprināto valdošās koalīcijas modeli, var teikt tik to, ka "sanācijas apstākļi" turpinās, partiju politiskajā attīstībā esam back in square one. Līdz ar to patiesībā partiju veidošana vienlaicīgi ar valsts pārvaldes sistēmas transformācijām nav tās pateicīgākās nodarbes skatoties no īstermiņa ieguvumu viedokļa, jo reitingi kritīs...
Neskatoties uz reitingiem Valdis Dombrovskis ar savu mieru palīdz kabinetam mērķtiecīgi turpināt pārvaldes sistēmas sanāciju, kaut arī ir sfēras kurā sistēmas attīrīšana nav notikusi tik ātri un dziļi, kā daži varbūt būtu vēlējušies. Reformu ātrumu un dziļumu noteikti ietekmē valdošo politisko partiju apvienību darbības principi un lēmumu pieņemšanas ātrums. "Vienotībā" (V) notiekošo vislabāk raksturo spīvās diskusijas parlamenta frakcijā, un, ja arī dažkārt V valdes vai vadītāja lēmumi nav skaidri, tad tos frakcijā vai valdes sēdēs ir iespējams izdiskutēt. Šis process ir laikietilpīgs, bet demokrātisks. V vēlētāji un atbalstītāji ir dažādu strāvojumu atbalstītāji, jo V pēc būtības ir centriska partiju apvienība kura apvieno ekonomiski liberālus, nacionāli konservatīvus un sociāli liberālus pārstāvjus.
Šobrīd diskusiju rezultātā veidojas platforma kuras rezultātā iepriekš minētajiem pārstāvjiem būs pašiem jānosaka - kāda tad būs centriskās V ideoloģija. Šis darbs notiek, un no sākotnējām diskusijām var noprast, ka centriskā V būs ar sociāli atbildīgu tautsaimniecības programmu un ne tik nacionāli konservatīva, kā piemēram LZS vai VL. Viedokļu saskaņošana nav no vienkāršajām, bet strīdos dzimst taisnība. Tikai no 2012.gs. partiju administratīvās darbības uzturēšanai varēs izmantot budžeta naudu, tāpēc šobrīd Latvijas partijām vai partiju pavienībām jāiztiek no biedru naudām un ziedojumiem. Kombinācija, kur uzticības zudums nozīmīgajām demokrātiskas pārvaldes institūcijām iet roku rokā ar iedzīvotāju nomācošo vairākumu, kuri nevēlas darboties ne partijās ne arī sabiedriskajās organizācijās, nav no labākajām. Tomēr, lai arī LV iedzīvotāju uzticība ir ļoti zema salīdzinot ar Skandināvijas valstu un Igaunijas uzticības rādītājiem pārvaldes institūcijām, tomēr pēdējais Eurobarometer pētījums ļauj izdarīt pieņēmumu par sistēmas stabilizāciju salīdzinot ar 2007-2009.g. graujošajiem uzticības rādītājiem. Sistēmas stabilizācija ir pozitīva un ļauj cerēt, ka no SIA Latvija republika evolucionārā ceļā ir iespējams nonākt līdz Rietumu pasaulē pieņemtas demokrātiskās konsolidācijas, kur pilsoņu līdzdalība ietekmē valsts salīdzinošo labklājību un pozīcijas starptautiskajā sistēmā. Tāpēc nobeidzot šo polemisko atbildi "epistulārajam līdzcīnītājam" centīšos ieskicēt tuvāko nākotni.
V un turpmākā ceļa karte
Gata Kokina iezīmētais scenārijs ir tikai viens no nākotnes redzējumiem. Ļoti raupji analizējot šodienas situāciju Latvijā mums ir izveidojusies situācija kur partiju politiskajā līmenī mums izveidojusies viena pilsētas un viena lauku latviešu partiju apvienība, krievu partiju apvienība, un vesels lērums sīkpartiju.
Šāda situācija nav optimāla jo turpina etnisko dalījumu kurš iepriekšējos gados ir indējis politisko vidi. Lai arī SC vidē ir ļaudis kuri fano par Somijas piemēru ar zviedru minoritāti domāju, ka viņi īsti neizprot Somijas vēsturi (Zviedru etniskās minoritātes loma atbalstot Somijas valstiskumu un vēlāk atbalsts Somijas iekļaušanai Ziemeļvalstu saimē), un nākotnes izvērsumā šodienas SC varētu cierēt, ja tad, uz RKP lomu. Tomēr SC loma un nākotne ir cits temats, un tāpēc atgriezīšos pie V.
Dibinot partijas un piedaloties Eiropas integrācijas procesā tiek izmantoti vēsturiski piemēri. Eiropas vecās demokrātijas zinām ar skaidri nepārprotamiem partiju nosaukumiem un tās var kalpot par gana labiem ceļa rādītājiem, lai arī ir pretēji piemēri:) Latvijas piemēri - LC, Saimnieks, Jaunais Laiks, Saskaņas Centrs, SCP, Atbildība - ir radījuši ne tikai neizpratni manu kolēģu vidū par partiju socioekonomisko orientāciju, bet tie ir dezorientējuši arī Latvijas vēlētāju un padarījuši tos imūnus pret Latvijas demokrātisko elitārismu. Tāpēc, piemēram, pirms SCP 2010.g. kongresa piedāvāju apdomāt vai nebūtu lietderīgi nosaukt SCP par Centra vai Liberālo centra partiju, tomēr pārāk neuzstāju uz šo risinājumu, jo tajā brīdī bija svarīgāki jautājumi risināmi. Šodienas Latvijas situācijā lieti der pārfrāzēt bijušo Krievijas premjeru Černomirdinu: "ka pēc PSRS sabrukuma veidojot jaunas partijas bijusi vēlme veidot ko savādāku, bet galu galā sanācis PSKP". Tomēr, vērojot šodienas politisko vidi Latvijā secinu, ka ne visi politiskie veidojumi ir "atsitušies 20.gs. goda un sirdzsapziņas partijā", lai arī partiju iekšējai demokratizācijai vēl darba pulka (domnīcas, ideoloģiski informatīvo materiālu sagatavošana, ētikas komisijas, vēlētāju izglītošanas pasākumi un tml.)
Veidojot V šobrīd neredzu tās ligas kuras vajājušas demokrātiskā centrālisma principu vadītas izbijušas partijas. Dažādu strāvojumu V cilvēkos redzu vēlmi veikt tās reformas kuras pēdējos 20.g. atliktas (0 deklarācija, progresīvais nodoklis, komerclikuma un vēlēšanu likuma izmaiņas utt. un tjpr.), jeb demontēt AAA komandas loloto SIA Latvijas republiku. Paredzu, ka iestarpināsi par V koalīcijas partneri, bet vienīgā atbilde šobrīd: "tiesiskas valsts dzirnas maļ lēnām, bet pamatīgi". Visupirms sagaidīsim Anglijas un Velsas Augstākās Tiesas lēmumu, un tad jau varēsim mērīt sadarbības temperatūru koalīcijā. Pēc šo likumu institucionalizācijas neizbēgama būs Latvijas politikas vides nostabilizēšanās un politiskās kultūras daļēja uzlabošanās. Tomēr tautsaimniecības izaugsmes tempu pieaugumu pieredzēsim tikai tad, ja iedzīvotāji turpinās iesaistīties sabiedrības pārvaldē, un neļaus valdībai un Saeimai gulēt uz sasniegtā lauriem, pieprasīs likuma varu un būs neiecietīgi pret korupciju un tml.
Tāpēc runājot par SCP un tās rīcību secinājums ir vienkāršs, SCP reitingi bija objektīvu iemeslu radīti. Lai arī vēlme bija ieņemt "brīvo sociāldemokrātisko|progresīvo nišu" tomēr politiķu ambīcijas, LSDSP implozija un Latvijas vēlētāju inerce saistīt progresīvu politiku ar etnisku piederību nepalīdzēja šo jautājumu risināt īstermiņā. Ja mēs tagad skatamies vēsturē uz SocDem partiju attīstību, tad tradicionāli tās izauga no arodbiedrību kustības, neapmierinātiem elites pārstāvjiem, vai vienkāršās strādniecības. Progresīvo politisko ideju pārstāvniecība šodien Latvijā ir sadrumstalota, līdzīgi kā konservatīvā vai liberālā pārstāvniecība. Tāpēc SCP, PS un JL lēmums par saplūšanu Vienotības partijā nav vērtējama vienkārši kā ilgtermiņa panaceja, bet galvenokārt kā stabilizējošs līdzeklis 20.g. atlikto reformu risināšanai un LV partiju politikas eiropeizācijai.
Demokrātiskās sistēmas konsolidācijai Latvijā būs nepieciešama ne tikai esošo politisko partiju darba pārvērtēšana, bet arī pilsonisko grupu aktivizēšanās zemākajā (grass roots level) līmenī. Vēl interesantāku šo situāciju padara LV dalība ES, jo neesam tālu no tā brīža, lai no Eiropas Parlamenta politiskajām grupām veidotos kaut kas līdzīgs pan-Eiropas politiskajām partijām. Tas gan ir jau cits temats, un pirms tam Latvijas 10.Saeimai un valdībai ir jābeidz virkne reformu, kurām būs jānostiprina likuma vara un jākalpo par socioekonomiskās ideoloģijās sakņotu pamatu daudzskaitlīgu liberālu, konservatīvu, progresīvu un centrisku politisku partiju attīstībai.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Debates in the Lettish parliament
Foreign policy debates in the Lettish parliament are back to stay! One may wonder why I am so confident about it? Answer is rather simple, because the logic of political debate determines that one must discuss something that is appealing to the average voter's ears and foreign policy issues will always sound better than marginal change of value added tax or change of transformation of urban zoning law etc. It was positive to witness thus many ambassadors present in person and swarming of TV crews which tried to make yesterday's event into media event.
Even though the Minister of Foreign Affairs slipped his tongue in a funny way the debates in the parliament showed consensus - that irrespective of the political affiliation all the political groups in the parliament publicly support ongoing and present strategic goals of the Republic of Latvia. Debates looked dry from the first instant and if not Atis Lejiņš public speech endowments the whole event could be characterized as a dry bureaucratic occasion.
Also the former prime minister created quite a stir when contrary to his party traditional position he came out of a closet to support the creation of the United States of Europe. Janīna Kursīte tried to keep her Baltic line and referred to the problems stemming from the irony that Latvians and Lithuanians have to mutually learn about the developments in neighbors' country through the means of Russian media. Several MP's and the Minister of Defense emphasized the need to invest more in programs of development assistance particularly keeping in mind Latvian efforts with other coalition partners to reconstruct the civil war torn Afghanistan. Debates lasted almost five hours and institutionalized a new tradition in the Lettish parliament. Gradually Latvian political life returns back to normal but to announce that normalcy has returned to the economically worse hit EU member state there are still very specific structural reforms to be done.
Even though the Minister of Foreign Affairs slipped his tongue in a funny way the debates in the parliament showed consensus - that irrespective of the political affiliation all the political groups in the parliament publicly support ongoing and present strategic goals of the Republic of Latvia. Debates looked dry from the first instant and if not Atis Lejiņš public speech endowments the whole event could be characterized as a dry bureaucratic occasion.
Also the former prime minister created quite a stir when contrary to his party traditional position he came out of a closet to support the creation of the United States of Europe. Janīna Kursīte tried to keep her Baltic line and referred to the problems stemming from the irony that Latvians and Lithuanians have to mutually learn about the developments in neighbors' country through the means of Russian media. Several MP's and the Minister of Defense emphasized the need to invest more in programs of development assistance particularly keeping in mind Latvian efforts with other coalition partners to reconstruct the civil war torn Afghanistan. Debates lasted almost five hours and institutionalized a new tradition in the Lettish parliament. Gradually Latvian political life returns back to normal but to announce that normalcy has returned to the economically worse hit EU member state there are still very specific structural reforms to be done.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Foreign policy continues the domestic one
Exactly ninety years ago Entente powers recognized Estonia and Latvia de jure. Due to such an important commemoration there were special events organized both in Latvia and Estonia. Personally attended the occasion in Riga, which was jointly organized by the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ambassade de France a Riga, and well attended. Presentations were extremely rich with historic data that was arbitrarily "forgotten" or not known in the Latvia during the interwar period and the following Soviet occupation. To commemorate this date also foreign policy debates are back in the Latvian parliament. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs produced a document and yesterday the Foreign Affairs Committee held its preliminary session with the most prominent Latvian foreign policy experts present.
Today there will be a possibility to observe public speech endowments of the Latvian MP's and ministers. The reason why I said that foreign policy debates are back in the parliament is the fact that from 2005 - 2010 rational and productive debates about any policy issues were actually absent from the Latvian talking shop (parliamentary debates in old democracies are mostly used to discuss policy issues and not only to push YEA and NAY buttons). Since the 2010 parliamentary elections the culture of political debates is back in the Latvian parliament, and I have witnessed it for the last 2 months. Foreign policy debatee in today's parliament could institute a tradition to have annual foreign policy debates in the parliament not only to commemorate foundations of the republic, but also to give the law giving branch of power to exercise its powers at its fullest. Also it is symbolic that due to this special occasion the speaker of the Latvian parliament was in Tallinn to discuss the upgrading of the work of the Baltic Assembly in order to give a new dimension for the good neighborly relations between the Baltic States.
All the previously mentioned events signify reappearance of fresh ideas among Latvian policy makers. However, they also signify that there are still ample to do in Latvia in order not only to have wholesome foreign policy debates in the parliament, but also to provide the Latvian public with means to discuss foreign policy on daily basis and to enable them to understand the fast changing global environment. This fact actually makes Estonia thus different from Latvia even though my Estonian colleagues would remind me that the Estonian situation is far from perfect. Indeed, Estonian situation cannot compete with Scandinavian countries or world's traditional powers yet when we want to analyze possibilities and mechanisms for wholesome foreign policy making, nurturing foreign policy experts, and enlightening the general public. Also the last argument is contestable because there is no country in the world where governments should take a duty in enlighting its general public about foreign policy issues, because those are mostly travails of free media.
And free media is the fact that distinguishes Latvia from Estonia among many other things. There are objective reasons for Latvia falling in a Freedom House rankings during past years. But my personal observations during last twenty years allow me to conclude that structurally media environments in two countries differ. It is not even the issue about the social science journals which have gradually evaporated into thin air in Latvia. The best example is if one compares contents of the Latvian and Estonian public media - in the Latvian TV there is one and half (!) program about foreign affairs if one considers the weekly De Facto as a program that from time to time covers also foreign policy issues. Also there is no such thing as the Estonian KUKU radio with its culture of political debate in Latvia. Finally the creation of the Estonian Public Broadcasting have started synergy on news making and allows to capitalize on being the best global source of the Estonian language news & culture. At the same time Latvian Public TV and Radio must compete with other commercial TV and radio stations in already lost battle for better ratings.
Also after the Latvian TV went digital there are still households who cannot adjust their old TV sets and thus afford viewing TV, and there are still areas particularly in Eastern Latvia where Russian and Bielorussian TV and radio reign supreme. Whenever you cross Latvian border to Estonia or Lithuanian the Latvian radio literally disappears from car radio after some ten kilometers of drive. Quite the contrary is with the Estonian and Lithuanian radio, because I use to listen Lithuanian news in my car in Riga and Estonian radio all the way until Bērzukrogs. So much about the technological capacity of the Latvian public broadcasters and I better wrap up in order to participate in today's debates in Saeima.
Traditionally the foreign policy starts at home with continuous increase of the governing capacity. Local public broadcasting is a particular area that has been neglected in Latvia for quite some time. Institution with a funny name - the National Electronic Media Council - is independent entity by law, but still being politically influenced without much transparency in their deliberations. In order to see new electronic media law being passed, the previously mentioned institution upgraded, and possibly new Latvian Pubic Broadcaster formed an agreement must first be formed in the present governing coalition. Until there is no such agreement it is futile to expect positive and Europeanized transformations in this field. After hopefully fruitful debates in the Saeima today it could eventually turn out as a next priority for the Unity political union in order to transform the Latvian public broadcasters into news source which could ensure continuation of broadcasting of an informed political debates and gradual transformation of the culture of political discussions.
Today there will be a possibility to observe public speech endowments of the Latvian MP's and ministers. The reason why I said that foreign policy debates are back in the parliament is the fact that from 2005 - 2010 rational and productive debates about any policy issues were actually absent from the Latvian talking shop (parliamentary debates in old democracies are mostly used to discuss policy issues and not only to push YEA and NAY buttons). Since the 2010 parliamentary elections the culture of political debates is back in the Latvian parliament, and I have witnessed it for the last 2 months. Foreign policy debatee in today's parliament could institute a tradition to have annual foreign policy debates in the parliament not only to commemorate foundations of the republic, but also to give the law giving branch of power to exercise its powers at its fullest. Also it is symbolic that due to this special occasion the speaker of the Latvian parliament was in Tallinn to discuss the upgrading of the work of the Baltic Assembly in order to give a new dimension for the good neighborly relations between the Baltic States.
All the previously mentioned events signify reappearance of fresh ideas among Latvian policy makers. However, they also signify that there are still ample to do in Latvia in order not only to have wholesome foreign policy debates in the parliament, but also to provide the Latvian public with means to discuss foreign policy on daily basis and to enable them to understand the fast changing global environment. This fact actually makes Estonia thus different from Latvia even though my Estonian colleagues would remind me that the Estonian situation is far from perfect. Indeed, Estonian situation cannot compete with Scandinavian countries or world's traditional powers yet when we want to analyze possibilities and mechanisms for wholesome foreign policy making, nurturing foreign policy experts, and enlightening the general public. Also the last argument is contestable because there is no country in the world where governments should take a duty in enlighting its general public about foreign policy issues, because those are mostly travails of free media.
And free media is the fact that distinguishes Latvia from Estonia among many other things. There are objective reasons for Latvia falling in a Freedom House rankings during past years. But my personal observations during last twenty years allow me to conclude that structurally media environments in two countries differ. It is not even the issue about the social science journals which have gradually evaporated into thin air in Latvia. The best example is if one compares contents of the Latvian and Estonian public media - in the Latvian TV there is one and half (!) program about foreign affairs if one considers the weekly De Facto as a program that from time to time covers also foreign policy issues. Also there is no such thing as the Estonian KUKU radio with its culture of political debate in Latvia. Finally the creation of the Estonian Public Broadcasting have started synergy on news making and allows to capitalize on being the best global source of the Estonian language news & culture. At the same time Latvian Public TV and Radio must compete with other commercial TV and radio stations in already lost battle for better ratings.
Also after the Latvian TV went digital there are still households who cannot adjust their old TV sets and thus afford viewing TV, and there are still areas particularly in Eastern Latvia where Russian and Bielorussian TV and radio reign supreme. Whenever you cross Latvian border to Estonia or Lithuanian the Latvian radio literally disappears from car radio after some ten kilometers of drive. Quite the contrary is with the Estonian and Lithuanian radio, because I use to listen Lithuanian news in my car in Riga and Estonian radio all the way until Bērzukrogs. So much about the technological capacity of the Latvian public broadcasters and I better wrap up in order to participate in today's debates in Saeima.
Traditionally the foreign policy starts at home with continuous increase of the governing capacity. Local public broadcasting is a particular area that has been neglected in Latvia for quite some time. Institution with a funny name - the National Electronic Media Council - is independent entity by law, but still being politically influenced without much transparency in their deliberations. In order to see new electronic media law being passed, the previously mentioned institution upgraded, and possibly new Latvian Pubic Broadcaster formed an agreement must first be formed in the present governing coalition. Until there is no such agreement it is futile to expect positive and Europeanized transformations in this field. After hopefully fruitful debates in the Saeima today it could eventually turn out as a next priority for the Unity political union in order to transform the Latvian public broadcasters into news source which could ensure continuation of broadcasting of an informed political debates and gradual transformation of the culture of political discussions.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Chips fall whenever an ax cuts...
I have resumed posting... Interrupted my blogging activities because of my new duties and learning new responsibilities took some month to learn. Because I am combining new duties with my academic work there was the end of the year duties grading student's exams and essays, then Season's holidays and now finally there is a time and reasons for resuming blogging activities.
In the first post since resuming my blogging activities I have to write about events in Latvia again, even though there are several positive developments in the three Baltic States lately. Estonia joining Eurozone is just one example and my longer analysis will soon appear in pages of the Baltic Times. Also the prime ministers of 3B just returned from a very laborious visit to London which would possibly turn quite an interesting page for the development of the European North.
But now lets get down to business, because even though at the first instant the news would sound as a rather insignificant skirmish it eventually could turn out as another pseudo scandal in Latvia. After last parliamentary elections the opposition Harmony Center (HC) party increased its representation in the 100 member Latvian parliament to 29. The fact that opposition party increases its ranks is nothing new, because in the meantime HC also mismanaged its possibility to be a part of the expanded national unity government.
The present problem with the HC leader foaming and populist politicians increasing their political capital continues the inertia of uneducated political discourse in Latvia. The problem with MP Kravcovs not knowing Latvian language is primarily his personal problem and the fact that Mr Kravcovs was included into the party list shows also rather peculiar attitudes of the HC party. To those who have not followed development of this pseudo problem MP Kravcovs Latvian language abilities are thus scanty, that he needed translator's aid while being member of the Liepaja Town Council. The problem is that there is different legal regulation and while translator can take part in town council meetings it becomes problematic in the parliament sessions due to the intensity of work. Instead of leaving the problem for HC to solve internally the members of another opposition party and the State language inspection have started procedure of determining whether MP Kravcovs follows the law. I think that the opposition MP's and Language inspection with their latest activities give a wrong signal, because they want to deal with effects and not causes of the problem. MP Kravcovs pseudo problem is something that should be discussed from the point of view of efficiency of the parliamentary work not knowledge of language.
Therefore I want to reemphasize that the problem of MP Kravcovs not knowing the Latvian language is primarily his and his political party problem, because in reality there are 29-1 HC members of parliament, when "language less" MP Kravcovs in reality is able to perform only his stunt duties. It also shows that Latvian language is not an issue the HC party really care, if they did not filter skills & abilities of their candidates prior including them into the election lists. Or maybe HC party was thus upbeat, that they really thought that they will simply cruise to home base in 2010 October elections and did not pay attention to such issues?
Anyway, the MP Kravcovs pseudo problem is an example how during the last twenty years both the Russophone and Latvian populist politicians engineered profitable discourse that allowed them to get elected. The chips fall whenever ax cuts to paraphrase the all problematique here, and unfortunately traditionally Latvian politicians have focused only on chips... Since last elections, when Latvian electorate showed its mature determination with assigning sixty percent of the former MP's into the heap of history, Latvian civil society witnessed certain rebirth. Therefore I hope that the MP Kravcovs pseudo problem would naturally get extinct, and MP's would continue to work with policy issues that would ensure Latvian politicians to focus also on ax & tree or overhauling stagnated political and economic structure.
In the first post since resuming my blogging activities I have to write about events in Latvia again, even though there are several positive developments in the three Baltic States lately. Estonia joining Eurozone is just one example and my longer analysis will soon appear in pages of the Baltic Times. Also the prime ministers of 3B just returned from a very laborious visit to London which would possibly turn quite an interesting page for the development of the European North.
But now lets get down to business, because even though at the first instant the news would sound as a rather insignificant skirmish it eventually could turn out as another pseudo scandal in Latvia. After last parliamentary elections the opposition Harmony Center (HC) party increased its representation in the 100 member Latvian parliament to 29. The fact that opposition party increases its ranks is nothing new, because in the meantime HC also mismanaged its possibility to be a part of the expanded national unity government.
The present problem with the HC leader foaming and populist politicians increasing their political capital continues the inertia of uneducated political discourse in Latvia. The problem with MP Kravcovs not knowing Latvian language is primarily his personal problem and the fact that Mr Kravcovs was included into the party list shows also rather peculiar attitudes of the HC party. To those who have not followed development of this pseudo problem MP Kravcovs Latvian language abilities are thus scanty, that he needed translator's aid while being member of the Liepaja Town Council. The problem is that there is different legal regulation and while translator can take part in town council meetings it becomes problematic in the parliament sessions due to the intensity of work. Instead of leaving the problem for HC to solve internally the members of another opposition party and the State language inspection have started procedure of determining whether MP Kravcovs follows the law. I think that the opposition MP's and Language inspection with their latest activities give a wrong signal, because they want to deal with effects and not causes of the problem. MP Kravcovs pseudo problem is something that should be discussed from the point of view of efficiency of the parliamentary work not knowledge of language.
Therefore I want to reemphasize that the problem of MP Kravcovs not knowing the Latvian language is primarily his and his political party problem, because in reality there are 29-1 HC members of parliament, when "language less" MP Kravcovs in reality is able to perform only his stunt duties. It also shows that Latvian language is not an issue the HC party really care, if they did not filter skills & abilities of their candidates prior including them into the election lists. Or maybe HC party was thus upbeat, that they really thought that they will simply cruise to home base in 2010 October elections and did not pay attention to such issues?
Anyway, the MP Kravcovs pseudo problem is an example how during the last twenty years both the Russophone and Latvian populist politicians engineered profitable discourse that allowed them to get elected. The chips fall whenever ax cuts to paraphrase the all problematique here, and unfortunately traditionally Latvian politicians have focused only on chips... Since last elections, when Latvian electorate showed its mature determination with assigning sixty percent of the former MP's into the heap of history, Latvian civil society witnessed certain rebirth. Therefore I hope that the MP Kravcovs pseudo problem would naturally get extinct, and MP's would continue to work with policy issues that would ensure Latvian politicians to focus also on ax & tree or overhauling stagnated political and economic structure.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
The 16th government in LV since independence in 1991
According to Latvian Constitution it is the President who asks the future prime minister to form the cabinet (Art. 56). Following political traditions usually it is the leader of the winning political party who leads the cabinet formation after elections. It means that for a month the coordination process (as determined by the constitution) between majority winning political parties|political unions and consultations with the president's chancellery takes place between the elections and the first session of the parliament.
The Unity political union (New Era, Civic Union and Society for Another politics political parties) won the elections and gained a third of 100 member parliament's seats, and Valdis Dombrovskis started forming the future Latvian cabinet. At first there was a chance to form truly formative Latvian grand coalition government, however due to disagreements within Unity political union, at the end the Unity and the Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF) formed the new cabinet.
Last Friday the first version of the new government declaration became available, and now this 29. page long document is fully accessible for scrutiny. Yesterday the 10th Latvian Saeima (parliament) convened for the emergency session and with the 63 YEA and 35 NAY votes approved the new Latvian Cabinet. In the 16th Cabinet since Latvia restored its independence in 1991 there are now seven ministers from the Unity and six from the UGF party. The new cabinet formation was rather bumpy and thus there are pundits who do not predict the government a long tenure. My personal views together with other colleagues are expressed here. I am more inclined to believe that if Valdis Dombrovsksis would be able to focus on his immense inner qualities he could become the longest serving PM in the Latvian history. It would essentially mean that starting from 2012 onwards Mr Dombrovskis would have to change his present austerity measures discourse to one that would inspire Latvian folks to jump start their political and economic system in new quality. For such discourse transformation there is a dire need to transform antiquated state administrative procedures and agencies. The Latvian Internal Revenue Service and Ministry of Education structure and personnel policies must be overhauled in order to achieve structural changes in Latvian economy. The rule of law without shake up of Latvian courts is impossible and last but not least the mandatory property and tax declaration system must be passed as soon as possible, because it is looooooooong overdue. Thus, if these reforms would be accomplished Latvian people could regain the trust in democratic governance and would most probably follow the new challenges that the new and R&D powered economy would pose.
The Latvian new Cabinet started its work yesterday and with high probability the author of these lines would start facing new challenges in his life. Due to my future job requirements I would not be able to comment on Latvian domestic politics in blogosphere as often anymore. However, I would continue to publish once monthly in the Baltic Times and add to the ongoing scientific research.
The Unity political union (New Era, Civic Union and Society for Another politics political parties) won the elections and gained a third of 100 member parliament's seats, and Valdis Dombrovskis started forming the future Latvian cabinet. At first there was a chance to form truly formative Latvian grand coalition government, however due to disagreements within Unity political union, at the end the Unity and the Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF) formed the new cabinet.
Last Friday the first version of the new government declaration became available, and now this 29. page long document is fully accessible for scrutiny. Yesterday the 10th Latvian Saeima (parliament) convened for the emergency session and with the 63 YEA and 35 NAY votes approved the new Latvian Cabinet. In the 16th Cabinet since Latvia restored its independence in 1991 there are now seven ministers from the Unity and six from the UGF party. The new cabinet formation was rather bumpy and thus there are pundits who do not predict the government a long tenure. My personal views together with other colleagues are expressed here. I am more inclined to believe that if Valdis Dombrovsksis would be able to focus on his immense inner qualities he could become the longest serving PM in the Latvian history. It would essentially mean that starting from 2012 onwards Mr Dombrovskis would have to change his present austerity measures discourse to one that would inspire Latvian folks to jump start their political and economic system in new quality. For such discourse transformation there is a dire need to transform antiquated state administrative procedures and agencies. The Latvian Internal Revenue Service and Ministry of Education structure and personnel policies must be overhauled in order to achieve structural changes in Latvian economy. The rule of law without shake up of Latvian courts is impossible and last but not least the mandatory property and tax declaration system must be passed as soon as possible, because it is looooooooong overdue. Thus, if these reforms would be accomplished Latvian people could regain the trust in democratic governance and would most probably follow the new challenges that the new and R&D powered economy would pose.
The Latvian new Cabinet started its work yesterday and with high probability the author of these lines would start facing new challenges in his life. Due to my future job requirements I would not be able to comment on Latvian domestic politics in blogosphere as often anymore. However, I would continue to publish once monthly in the Baltic Times and add to the ongoing scientific research.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Official results of the October 2 elections in Latvia
It has been known already that political unions are inherently unstable and during last parliamentary elections only political unions were elected into the Latvian Parliament (Saeima). Purists would remind me that Harmony Centre has transformed into the political force which tends to position itself as a social democratic party. That is right but the heterogeneity of its membership, lack of truly democratic decision making process within that party, and relatively young age of the Harmony Centre party allows me to categorize it more like a political union rather than a stable party. But the internal composition of the political unions is not the issue I want to discuss tonight but rather to publish the latest significant news about the late elections.
Since almost two weeks it is announced that he Unity won the most seats (33) in the 100 member parliament, Harmony Center (29) came second, Union of Greens of Farmers (22) came third, and All for Latvia & For Good Latvia got eight seats each. The possible size and program of the governing coalition is still negotiated and incumbent Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis is prime figure behind this process.
Positions of different political unions was known so far but exact knowledge about who is who in the new parliament was officially announced only today. Since we have the official information (see below) it is possible to finally evaluate possible candidates for ministerial positions and their replacements into the new parliament. That would be most probably the next entry, because there is still about two weeks until the first session of the 10th Saeima, and the negotiations about the new governing coalition are bitter at times when all attention should be actually focused on the overhaul of the antiquated economic structure and boosting "green shoots" of the nascent economy.
Photo: Ieva Čīka/LETA
UNITY (33)
From the Riga electoral district: Ģirts Valdis Kristovskis (PS), Ojārs Kalniņš (PS), Lolita Čigāne (PS), Rasma Kārkliņa (PS), Ints Dālderis (JL), Inguna Rībena (JL), Andris Buiķis (JL), Ilze Viņķele (PS), Imants Lieģis (PS).
From the Livonian electoral district: Valdis Dombrovskis (JL), Artis Pabriks (SCP), Ilma Čepāne (PS), Ainars Latkovskis (JL), Ina Druviete (PS), Edvards Smiltēns (SCP), Andris Vilks (PS), Arvils Ašeradens (PS), Dzintars Ābiķis (SCP), Guntars Galvanovskis (JL), Dzintra Hirša (PS) un Ingmārs Čaklais (PS).
From the Latgale electoral district: Aleksejs Loskutovs (SCP) un Kārlis Šadurskis (PS),
From the electoral district in Courland: Solvita Āboltiņa (JL), Janīna Kursīte-Pakule (PS), Silva Bendrāte (JL) un Ingrīda Circene (JL).
From the electoral district in Semigallen: Sarmīte Ēlerte (PS), Artis Kampars (JL), Dzintars Zaķis (JL), Atis Lejiņš (SCP), Aigars Štokenbergs (SCP) un Klāvs Olšteins (JL).
HARMONY CENTER (29)
From the Riga electoral district: Jānis Urbanovičs, Sergejs Dolgopolovs, Andrejs Klementjevs, Artūrs Rubiks, Boriss Cilevičs, Sergejs Mirskis, Nikolajs Kabanovs, Igors Pimenovs, Mihails Zemļinskis, Igors Meļņikovs, Aleksejs Holostovs, Ņikita Ņikoforovs un Igors Zujevs.
From the Livonian electoral district: Ivans Klementjevs, Jānis Ādamsons, Juris Silovs, Aleksandrs Sakovskis.
From the Latgale electoral district: Jānis Tutins, Raimonds Rubiks, Ivans Ribakovs, Vladimirs Nikonovs, Aleksandrs Jakimovs, Aleksejs Burunovs, Sergejs Fjodorovs, Dmitrijs Rodionovs,
From the electoral district in Courland: Valērijs Agešins, Valērijs Kravcovs.
From the electoral district in Semigallen: Valentīns Grigorjevs un Vitālijs Orlovs.
UNION OF GREENS AND FARMERS (22)
From the Riga electoral district: Raimonds Vējonis, Kārlis Seržants, Jānis Strazdiņš,
From the Livonian electoral district: Jānis Dūklavs, Ingmārs Līdaka, Iveta Grigule, Armands Krauze, Vitauts Staņa, Andris Bērziņš
From the electoral district in Semigallen: Augusts Brigmanis, Andris Bērziņš, Uldis Augulis, Dace Reinika, Aivars Dronka
From the Latgale electoral district: Staņislavs Šķesters, Jānis Klaužs un Rihards Eigims
From the electoral district in Courland: Gundars Daudze, Aija Barča, Dana Reizniece, Oskars Zīds un Jānis Vucāns.
FOR GOOD LATVIA (8)
No Rīgas ievēlēti - Ainārs un Inese Šleseri (LPP/LC)
No Kurzemes ievēlēts Edgars Zalāns (TP)
No Vidzemes ievēlēti: Māris Kučinskis (TP) un Guntis Ulmanis
No Latgales ievēlēti: Rita Strode (LPP/LC) un Imants Bekešs,
No Zemgales ievēlēts Andris Šķēle (TP)
ALL FOR LATVIA (8)
No Rīgas ievēlēti: Dzintars Rasnačs (TB/LNNK) un Einārs Cilinskis (VL)
No Vidzemes ievēlēti: Raivis Dzintars (VL), Visvaldis Lācis (VL), Jānis Dombrava (VL)
No Latgales ievēlēta Inese Laizāne (VL)
No Kurzemes ievēlēts Gaidis Bērziņš (TB/LNNK)
No Zemgales ievēlēts Imants Parādnieks (VL)
P.S. Here are links to my latest articles on LV elections in Postimees, Delfi, Ukrainian daily, and TBT
Since almost two weeks it is announced that he Unity won the most seats (33) in the 100 member parliament, Harmony Center (29) came second, Union of Greens of Farmers (22) came third, and All for Latvia & For Good Latvia got eight seats each. The possible size and program of the governing coalition is still negotiated and incumbent Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis is prime figure behind this process.
Positions of different political unions was known so far but exact knowledge about who is who in the new parliament was officially announced only today. Since we have the official information (see below) it is possible to finally evaluate possible candidates for ministerial positions and their replacements into the new parliament. That would be most probably the next entry, because there is still about two weeks until the first session of the 10th Saeima, and the negotiations about the new governing coalition are bitter at times when all attention should be actually focused on the overhaul of the antiquated economic structure and boosting "green shoots" of the nascent economy.
Photo: Ieva Čīka/LETA
UNITY (33)
From the Riga electoral district: Ģirts Valdis Kristovskis (PS), Ojārs Kalniņš (PS), Lolita Čigāne (PS), Rasma Kārkliņa (PS), Ints Dālderis (JL), Inguna Rībena (JL), Andris Buiķis (JL), Ilze Viņķele (PS), Imants Lieģis (PS).
From the Livonian electoral district: Valdis Dombrovskis (JL), Artis Pabriks (SCP), Ilma Čepāne (PS), Ainars Latkovskis (JL), Ina Druviete (PS), Edvards Smiltēns (SCP), Andris Vilks (PS), Arvils Ašeradens (PS), Dzintars Ābiķis (SCP), Guntars Galvanovskis (JL), Dzintra Hirša (PS) un Ingmārs Čaklais (PS).
From the Latgale electoral district: Aleksejs Loskutovs (SCP) un Kārlis Šadurskis (PS),
From the electoral district in Courland: Solvita Āboltiņa (JL), Janīna Kursīte-Pakule (PS), Silva Bendrāte (JL) un Ingrīda Circene (JL).
From the electoral district in Semigallen: Sarmīte Ēlerte (PS), Artis Kampars (JL), Dzintars Zaķis (JL), Atis Lejiņš (SCP), Aigars Štokenbergs (SCP) un Klāvs Olšteins (JL).
HARMONY CENTER (29)
From the Riga electoral district: Jānis Urbanovičs, Sergejs Dolgopolovs, Andrejs Klementjevs, Artūrs Rubiks, Boriss Cilevičs, Sergejs Mirskis, Nikolajs Kabanovs, Igors Pimenovs, Mihails Zemļinskis, Igors Meļņikovs, Aleksejs Holostovs, Ņikita Ņikoforovs un Igors Zujevs.
From the Livonian electoral district: Ivans Klementjevs, Jānis Ādamsons, Juris Silovs, Aleksandrs Sakovskis.
From the Latgale electoral district: Jānis Tutins, Raimonds Rubiks, Ivans Ribakovs, Vladimirs Nikonovs, Aleksandrs Jakimovs, Aleksejs Burunovs, Sergejs Fjodorovs, Dmitrijs Rodionovs,
From the electoral district in Courland: Valērijs Agešins, Valērijs Kravcovs.
From the electoral district in Semigallen: Valentīns Grigorjevs un Vitālijs Orlovs.
UNION OF GREENS AND FARMERS (22)
From the Riga electoral district: Raimonds Vējonis, Kārlis Seržants, Jānis Strazdiņš,
From the Livonian electoral district: Jānis Dūklavs, Ingmārs Līdaka, Iveta Grigule, Armands Krauze, Vitauts Staņa, Andris Bērziņš
From the electoral district in Semigallen: Augusts Brigmanis, Andris Bērziņš, Uldis Augulis, Dace Reinika, Aivars Dronka
From the Latgale electoral district: Staņislavs Šķesters, Jānis Klaužs un Rihards Eigims
From the electoral district in Courland: Gundars Daudze, Aija Barča, Dana Reizniece, Oskars Zīds un Jānis Vucāns.
FOR GOOD LATVIA (8)
No Rīgas ievēlēti - Ainārs un Inese Šleseri (LPP/LC)
No Kurzemes ievēlēts Edgars Zalāns (TP)
No Vidzemes ievēlēti: Māris Kučinskis (TP) un Guntis Ulmanis
No Latgales ievēlēti: Rita Strode (LPP/LC) un Imants Bekešs,
No Zemgales ievēlēts Andris Šķēle (TP)
ALL FOR LATVIA (8)
No Rīgas ievēlēti: Dzintars Rasnačs (TB/LNNK) un Einārs Cilinskis (VL)
No Vidzemes ievēlēti: Raivis Dzintars (VL), Visvaldis Lācis (VL), Jānis Dombrava (VL)
No Latgales ievēlēta Inese Laizāne (VL)
No Kurzemes ievēlēts Gaidis Bērziņš (TB/LNNK)
No Zemgales ievēlēts Imants Parādnieks (VL)
P.S. Here are links to my latest articles on LV elections in Postimees, Delfi, Ukrainian daily, and TBT
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Apņēmība un slava
Latvieši met izaicinājumu vispārzināmām patiesībām, atkal ievēlot krīzes valdību
Latvijas nesenie notikumi ir likuši pārskatīt vairākas modernās politekonomijas aksiomas. Pirmkārt, saglabāt stabilu valūtu sabrukuma apstākļos ir pašnāvnieciski. Latvija saglabāja savu eiro piesaistīto valūtu un ir atguvusi konkurētspēju, pateicoties t.s. iekšējai devalvācijai - lielu sabiedrisko tēriņu un algu samazināšanai. Finansu optimizācija pielīdzināma ap 14% no iekšzemes kopprodukta.
Pastāv aksioma, ka vēlētāji soda valdības, kuras uzspiež stingru ekonomisko politiku. Bet premjerministra Valda Dombrovska vadītā koalīcija uzvarēja 2. oktobra parlamenta vēlēšanās ar 58,6% balsu, par spīti tam, ka pārraudzīja iekšzemes kopprodukta krišanos par rekordlieliem - 18% - 2009. gadā. V. Dombrovska partija Vienotība gandrīz divkāršoja savu vietu skaitu parlamentā - tā ieguva 33 no 100 vietām.
Vēlētāji atspēkoja arī citu pieņēmumu,- ka nauda neizbēgami izkropļo politisko procesu, sevišķi nabadzīgajās valstīs. Galvenā oligarhu partiju apvienība Par labu Latviju tika sagrauta līdz 8 vietām, kaut gan tā bagātīgi šķieda naudu priekšvēlēšanu kampaņai, no-pērkot pat vispopulārāko neatkarīgo avīzi valstī. Vēlētāji, izrādās, pamatoti to vainoja par neapdomīgu politku treknajos gados. Pirms tam šīm pie apvienības piederīgām partijām Saeimā bija 33 vietas.
Ārzemnieki, kuri aizdeva Latvijai 7,5 miljardus eiro, ir atviegloti. Ekonomika atkal pieaug ar straujo eksporta un rūpniecības produkcijas kāpumu (gan saglabājas augsts bezdarbs ). Bet V.Dombrovskim ir jārisina jauna problēma. Ir parādījies jauns politiskais spēks –Saskaņas Centrs – centriski kreisa partija, kas galvenokārt apvieno etniskos krievus un pa daļai arī tos latviešus, kas ir vīlušies esošajās partijās. Saskaņas centrs jaunajā parlamentā ieguvis 29 vietas.
Saskaņas centrs varētu mēģināt aizvilināt Dombrovska galvenos partnerus - Zaļo un Zemnieku savienību, kura ieguvusi 22 vietas. Lai to novērstu, Dombrovskis varētu piedāvāt SC darījumu - nākt vismazākās koalīcijas partijas vietā, kurai ir 8 vietas. Tā ir ultranacionālistu apvienība ar netīkamām manierēm.
SC jau ir pie varas galvaspilsētā Rīgā. Taču ievest prokrievisku partiju nacionālā valdībā būtu liels politisks risks, un tāpēc Dombrovskis varētu izvēlēties turēties kopā ar jau esošajiem partneriem. Jaunā valdība jāizveido līdz 2. novembrim. Tad jāsāk strādāt pie nākamā gada budžeta. Tas nozīmēs vēl vairāk samazināt izdevumus un palielināt nodokļus, lai izpildītu starptautisko aizdevēju prasību - ievērot 6% budžeta deficīta no iekšzemes kopprodukta. Bet, lai izpildītu valdības mērķi - 2014. gadā ieviest eiro-, ar to varētu arī nepietikt.
P.S. Good friend Janis Irbe from Geneva sent me translation of this The Economist article and asked me to publish it, because he thinks it is essential to spread this info also in Latvian!
Latvijas nesenie notikumi ir likuši pārskatīt vairākas modernās politekonomijas aksiomas. Pirmkārt, saglabāt stabilu valūtu sabrukuma apstākļos ir pašnāvnieciski. Latvija saglabāja savu eiro piesaistīto valūtu un ir atguvusi konkurētspēju, pateicoties t.s. iekšējai devalvācijai - lielu sabiedrisko tēriņu un algu samazināšanai. Finansu optimizācija pielīdzināma ap 14% no iekšzemes kopprodukta.
Pastāv aksioma, ka vēlētāji soda valdības, kuras uzspiež stingru ekonomisko politiku. Bet premjerministra Valda Dombrovska vadītā koalīcija uzvarēja 2. oktobra parlamenta vēlēšanās ar 58,6% balsu, par spīti tam, ka pārraudzīja iekšzemes kopprodukta krišanos par rekordlieliem - 18% - 2009. gadā. V. Dombrovska partija Vienotība gandrīz divkāršoja savu vietu skaitu parlamentā - tā ieguva 33 no 100 vietām.
Vēlētāji atspēkoja arī citu pieņēmumu,- ka nauda neizbēgami izkropļo politisko procesu, sevišķi nabadzīgajās valstīs. Galvenā oligarhu partiju apvienība Par labu Latviju tika sagrauta līdz 8 vietām, kaut gan tā bagātīgi šķieda naudu priekšvēlēšanu kampaņai, no-pērkot pat vispopulārāko neatkarīgo avīzi valstī. Vēlētāji, izrādās, pamatoti to vainoja par neapdomīgu politku treknajos gados. Pirms tam šīm pie apvienības piederīgām partijām Saeimā bija 33 vietas.
Ārzemnieki, kuri aizdeva Latvijai 7,5 miljardus eiro, ir atviegloti. Ekonomika atkal pieaug ar straujo eksporta un rūpniecības produkcijas kāpumu (gan saglabājas augsts bezdarbs ). Bet V.Dombrovskim ir jārisina jauna problēma. Ir parādījies jauns politiskais spēks –Saskaņas Centrs – centriski kreisa partija, kas galvenokārt apvieno etniskos krievus un pa daļai arī tos latviešus, kas ir vīlušies esošajās partijās. Saskaņas centrs jaunajā parlamentā ieguvis 29 vietas.
Saskaņas centrs varētu mēģināt aizvilināt Dombrovska galvenos partnerus - Zaļo un Zemnieku savienību, kura ieguvusi 22 vietas. Lai to novērstu, Dombrovskis varētu piedāvāt SC darījumu - nākt vismazākās koalīcijas partijas vietā, kurai ir 8 vietas. Tā ir ultranacionālistu apvienība ar netīkamām manierēm.
SC jau ir pie varas galvaspilsētā Rīgā. Taču ievest prokrievisku partiju nacionālā valdībā būtu liels politisks risks, un tāpēc Dombrovskis varētu izvēlēties turēties kopā ar jau esošajiem partneriem. Jaunā valdība jāizveido līdz 2. novembrim. Tad jāsāk strādāt pie nākamā gada budžeta. Tas nozīmēs vēl vairāk samazināt izdevumus un palielināt nodokļus, lai izpildītu starptautisko aizdevēju prasību - ievērot 6% budžeta deficīta no iekšzemes kopprodukta. Bet, lai izpildītu valdības mērķi - 2014. gadā ieviest eiro-, ar to varētu arī nepietikt.
P.S. Good friend Janis Irbe from Geneva sent me translation of this The Economist article and asked me to publish it, because he thinks it is essential to spread this info also in Latvian!
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