Wednesday, August 13, 2008

August 2008 - transforming international affairs

Russian invasion of Georgia that Kremlin's bosses euphemistically call "peace enforcement mission" has changed modus operandi of international politics. Response of the US leadership was unexpectedly harsh. Considering the fact that its the prime vacation time the response and actions of the EU27 were well coordinated. Furthermore the coordination of response between the US and its European allies is laudatory. Even a personal friend of the Russian PM Mr Sylvio Berlusconi had to change his former rhetoric, and give in to the present call for European unity in approaching Russia.

Reappearance of Russian tanks on streets of the European country since the Prague spring 1968 , and vicarious demands to topple the current Georgian government shows that Kremlin policy makers still have not changed the thinking patterns of the Cold War era. The Russian Federation and particularly its PM won a Pyrrhic victory so far. Mr Putin' s wish to consolidate "his energy empire" backfired, because the US and the EU have vital interests securing alternative energy sources from the Caspian Sea region. The whole mechanism of interdependence between the Russian Federation and the EU should be reassessed now. Wholesome interdependence cannot be played according to the zero - sum game rules that the former Russian presidency played for the last eight years. The latest events in Georgia clearly show that Kremlin's policy makers still stick to the old paradigms of structural realism, and that the modern ideas of international relations are foreign to them.

The weight of Kremlin power and its cynical political games have blinded Mr Putin personally. The Russian PM probably thinks that all rulers should act similarly to him, and that probably explains his irritation about the personality of Mr Saakashvili and his irresponsible remark about Mr Putin. After Kremlin invaded other member of its own creation, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Republic of Georgia slammed the doors of the CIS. Actions of Kremlin were thus poorly staged, that even its staunchest autocratic allies and none (!) of the CIS members supported Kremlin's adventures.

The forthcoming months prior the US presidential elections have coincided with further determination of the balance of power in Kremlin. It will be a time when a new modus vivendi between the US and Russia will be formed. Also the US presidential candidates McCain and Obama are busy positioning themselves vis-a-vis Russia.

The EU member state presidents from Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and the Ukrainian president were in Tbilisi to support Georgian people to withstand the dire situation their country has found itself. Polish, Baltic and Ukrainian leaders have fresh memories about the harshness of Soviet yoke. They understood, that leaving the irresponsible Kremlin bear unattended in Georgia will only intoxicate the beast and then none of the neighboring countries around Russia can feel safe. Apparently Polish, Ukrainian and 3B representatives were not happy with the initial draft of the Sarkozy brokered peace initative, thus came their joint statement.

The French President's brokered plan was accepted by both warring parties after all. The cease fire is still fragile, Russian forces are still on the Georgian soil where the former have even established illegal checkpoints. There is the NATO emergency session planned for the next Tuesday, and after presidential orders the Secretary of State is visiting Paris and Tbilisi. In spite of the vacation time many Western statesmen are forced to act, while some leaders are still in Beijing.


Q: Where is the Latvian president?
Photo: Leta

Estonian and Lithuanian presidents announced that they will not attend the Beijing Olympic Games. Latvian president was probably tired from the domestic political turmoil, thus he preferred to relax and support Latvian sportsmen/women in Beijing. The US president was at the Beijing Olympics opening ceremony, and then left to Washington D.C. because of his global responsibilities. Nicolas Sarkozy managed to be at the opening ceremony in Beijing, and after leaving home he managed touring Moscow and Tbilisi as the acting head of the European presidency. Finally he brokered the Georgian and Russian peace deal. In Tbilisi French president had a possibility to meet also Polish, Ukrainian, Estonian, Lithuanian presidents and the Latvian prime minister, while the Latvian president was simply not there. If small democracies want to sustain their long term sustainability and be considered as viable partners in international arena, their politicians must be as active as the leaders of great powers. Valdis Zatlers unfortunately did not live up to his responsibilities when at least 600 000 Latvian citizens expected him as little as to morally support fellow Georgians.


A: The president with his buddies (Aigars Kalvītis & Co) is in Beijing watching basketball

Photo: Aivars Liepiņš

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dear Mr Spolitis,

I realize that this is not exactly right time for discussion since faith of Georgians is being decided this very minute. However I decided to spend a few minutes from my breakfast time on this discussion just because obviously You turned out to be another pro western view of conflict.

(1) Propaganda:
I truly agree with BBC column that says that there is a war of propaganda, I also agree that Russia is not leading this war. How ever check this out http://news.ntv.ru/138236/video/ - this proves that western media is a tool of policy maker in this conflict. Most common verbs to characterize action used by both Russian and Western media are "attacked", "accused", "failed" thus describing ones opposition in aggressive tone.

(2) 1968.
No need for long talks. Try to google this interview- Vaclav Havel- former leader off Czech interdependence movement denied any similarities between Czech republic in 1968 and Georgia today. Czechs never attack anyone however facts talk for themselves- Georgia was the one who made first step thus awaking military confrontation, not Russia. (I will turn to essence of conflict in my own view later..)

(3) Concerning former Soviet strategy of using one conflict that attracts worlds attention to rise its influence in other regions

For God's sake- do You really believe that it is reasonable idea that Russia might risk with war by attacking any NATO state? Even thought Russia s high rank military person in his interview mentioned that Poland's antimissile project agreement would not stay unpunished there is different explanation.
It was ok for the US to cancel its presence in military training near Japan sea called FRUCUS where France, Russia, Canada and the US were supposed to show and train their military. However deal on antimissile shield with Poland could not wait? Why is that? In one military project the US can wait, in another can not? I would say that the US is one re sampling former Soviet strategy (of course for much more peaceful purposes)- in order to strengthen its military positions in Europe.

(4) Georgia's failure in strategy and diplomacy
I do not like to admit this, but in away I agree with Mr Medvedev when he says that Mr Saakashvili failed to fallow diplomatic strategy as Mr Saakashvili stepped into military confrontation. Of course Russia has been naturalizing Georgians in South Osetia and Abkhazia for a year already, of course it might be true that Russia helped in rising conflict among Osetins and Georgians.. However now Georgia is the one who failed diplomacy.
At this point I hare to pause and think a little- why Georgia not Russia maid first military move? I would say so- Russia since Kosovo's case had been rather successful in its diplomatic and propaganda strategy concerning those two autonomous regions thus making its influential way closer to American pipeline leading through Tbilisi to Cayhan and arriving from Baku in Azerbaijan.
As Georgia hosts 1% of world's gas transit and is strategically import region in Caspian gas transit Russia's ambitions concerning former Soviet satellite state are understandable. I also understand why Russia is taking its strategy now- the US (not its bankers that I blame for Iraqi and Afghanistan war and Mortgage crises on background of expensive war) is financially and politically weak. UN also has lost its influence since the US acted against UN's resolutions. Rather good point to satisfy Russia s ambitions on leaving Georgia.
However neither Georgia, nor the US would accept such a plan. Therefore I assume that there is sort of plan of creating another Turkey in a way- a state that is outside alliance (NATO instead of the EU this time) but lays pretty close to it and also host significant amount of the US influence in order to stand against Russia. According to this theory Georgia s action of attack in South Ossetia was a move to attract in a legitimate The US s political and military presence in situation when Russia became more influenive in region and Georgia had long way to go to NATO

Kind regards,
student

PS
I truly looking forward to seeing any comments or answer just because all around there is hardly any qualitative analyze. Most views support either Russian or western propaganda.

Baltic said...

Ms Incognito,

I do not know your motives for discussing incognito, but there as my concise answers.

"You turned out to be another pro western view of conflict.""

In ANY clonflict persons take sides, because in social sciences it is really hard to get pure and value free judgment:)Furthermore, when there is such an ASSYMETRIC campaign it just makes a person who believes in accomplishments of Western democracy to side with a underdog!

"I truly agree with BBC column that says that there is a war of propaganda"

I just commented that there is propaganda war going on from both sides, because it is AN INTEGRAL PART of the modern warfare. I have learned also the Russian propaganda and I am utterly convinced that the root cause of the whole mess in Caucasus are political games of Kremlin's imperial gremlins. Thus, I suggest you read also this - http://reytar.livejournal.com/27495.html

""(2) 1968.
No need for long talks.
Try to google this interview- Vaclav Havel- former leader off Czech interdependence movement denied any similarities between Czech republic in 1968 and Georgia today."""

I TOTALLY agree with Mr Havel, and if you carefully read what I wrote, then I never implied that 1968 and 2008 invasions are in any way similar. It is JUST AN OBVIOUS FACT that since 1968 Russian Federation tanks roam roads and city streets of a European country again:)

""(3) Concerning former Soviet strategy of using one conflict that attracts worlds attention to rise its influence in other regions""""

Where do you see me implying it??

""""For God's sake- do You really believe that it is reasonable idea that Russia might risk with war by attacking any NATO state?""""

Georgia NATO state???????

""However deal on antimissile shield with Poland could not wait? Why is that? """"

You must ask Polish and the US policy makers such question:) But my simplest hunch would be that the Russian adventure in Caucasus forced Polish hesitant policymakers to acquise to the US version of agreement.

""""I would say that the US is one re sampling former Soviet strategy (of course for much more peaceful purposes)- in order to strengthen its military positions in Europe.""""

why NOT, we are allies after all, why is there NATO then?

"" Of course Russia has been naturalizing Georgians in South Osetia and Abkhazia for a year already, of course it might be true that Russia helped in rising
conflict among Osetins and Georgians.. """"

Illegaly like a gangsta members:-)(http://www.mod.gov.ge/i.php?l=E)

""""However now Georgia is the one who failed diplomacy."""

sorry, do not ge to your point?????

""Why Georgia not Russia maid first military move? """"

there WILL be volumes written about it, but Kremlin provoked Saakashvilli into the trap, yes. Also Saakshvilli knows it, and he will have to admit it:( (Saakshvilli had unjustified hopes about immediate and solid Western (!) response) BUT, and MORE IMPORTANTLY, it makes also Kremlin's policy gremlins co-responsible for provoking THIS CONFLICT!!!!!

""""I would say so- Russia since Kosovo's case had been rather successful in its diplomatic and propaganda strategy concerning those two autonomous regions thus making its influential way closer to American pipeline leading through Tbilisi to Cayhan and arriving from Baku in Azerbaijan.""""

Utter rubbish, Kremlin kept those frozen clonflicts for a sake of playing them for their own zero sum game. Like in a fable about the dog on the heypile:)

""""""According to this theory Georgia s action of attack in South Ossetia was a move to attract in a legitimate The US s political and military presence in situation when Russia became more influenive in region and Georgia had long way to go to NATO""""

Maybe:) but maybe it was started by Kremlin's "hawks" because, first Putin's fraction tied hands of Medvedev to become accidental ally with the West. And second, with securing the Georgian transit routes Kremlin puts the whole of Western Europe at the mercy of the RF? Maybe:)

Anonymous said...

Still incognito

Since I am still studying this science I prefer staying unknown due to high possibility of misguided opinions.

I hope You do not mind having minor exchange of thoughts here.

I really did not mean to offend You in anyway, but unfortunately it turned out to be so. See- I am not trying to quote Your texts in order to find certain mistakes. I am testing my ideas that are not so popular against You opinion which as You just admitted match western media (of course not 100%). I have not find many places to discuss such issues in public space, but since I have monitored You in discussions in numerous web sites- You seem to be pretty keen on positioning Your opinion against others. Therefore I find this place ok, if it is not so I am alright to leave it immediately.

(So far concerning my position of view)

Some misunderstandings- of course Georgia is not NATO member state. What I meant here was that there is now popular opinion, and even You mentioned possibility of extension of Russian ambitions along EU/ NATO border side that might possibly touch Latvia. Such possibility of any attack by definition means that Russia not only confronts all NATO member states but also loses diplomatic communication lane in person of France and Germany. This paragraph also refer to analogical possibilities between Nazi attack on Poland while USSR occupied Baltic (I think it is Your previous paragraph). Therefore I do believe that it is not only Russian ambitions that are seeking for fulfillment- there are certain changes also for Georgia and the US. And I do not thing that state like Georgia or Saakashvili would decide on their own to attack by principle "enough is enough- let 's fight".

To make it short I would say fallowing- direct military confrontation speed up competing ambitions of Russia, Georgia and West.

Position A:
The US wants influence in region, Russia wants influence in region, contemporary Georgia has decided for capitalist western life style, not quasi- russian-democracy- of- no rights- few are rich/rest are poor.

Position B:
(1)Russia has risen in legal and illegal way (but still peaceful way) its power near two autonomous regions. (2)This threatens Georgia as legal procedure of stepping into NATO is not so successful and is rather time consuming. (3)The US still has its view of placing antimissile shield not around American border but in Eurasia. Now
the US has chance to quickly fulfill its plans basing action on Russian threat to world (ok, Europe..oh, well-let it be Georgia this time).

Position C:
Now this positions stand one against another. Georgia decides on attack in order to stop Russian partisan influence and attract more intense US support. And as in most conflict- one that will turn out to be more successful in legitimate way will fulfill their ambitions.

I am afraid to predict anything even for my own self concerning turn out of conflict because they tend to continue even after Bush says that "mission is completed".
But I would say that Russia would win certain control over both of regions. It will also succeed in putting back Georgia from NATO. But the US would maintain high number of military in Georgia due to "peace keeping/ pipeline and gas transit safeguarding operations".

Alright, so far my speculations. There is another thing that I would like to know.. or at least You might give me some useful links: it is certainly not Russian nation that would benefit from two more poor regions, nor they would benefit from available gas. They are also not Americans that benefit from paying their taxes for another US's foreign residence in Caspian region. Who benefits from arms deals, gas trade, restoring infrastructure after war, medical care of army? (I know that only first two cases concern Russia, but the US makes business of all of them- anyway ate there any qualitative, not populist opinions on the web?)

Baltic said...

Ms Incognito,

No offence and the weblog is a good forum for having a discussion indeed:) Somewhat hasty answers were due to the fact that I must get ready with all the errands prior leaving back to the Baltics.

Also now I will give quick responses and if some positions are not responded then consider that I am in agreement with:)

""""3)The US still has its view of placing antimissile shield not around American border but in Eurasia. Now
the US has chance to quickly fulfill its plans basing action on Russian threat to world (ok, Europe..oh, well-let it be Georgia this time).""""

Aye, highly probable

""""But I would say that Russia would win certain control over both of regions. """

Most certainly. Russia always had significant control over those regions, and also former jobs of S-O Messrs - PM Morozov, Minzajev, Barankevich, Atujev, Lunev, Kotoev, Chebodarev attest to that - FSB ..:)

""""It will also succeed in putting back Georgia from NATO.""""

Do not think so, especially if you listen to the coordinated announcements of the US and EU policy makers.

""""But the US would maintain high number of military in Georgia due to "peace keeping/ pipeline and gas transit safeguarding operations"""""

Do not thīnk so, because there is division of labor after all, and Europeans will have to do the job in their doorstep:) + whenever Amricans invest a buck they want to get back at least two:)

links: it is certainly not Russian nation that would benefit from two more poor regions,

DEFINITELY NOT

""They are also not Americans that benefit from paying their taxes for another US's foreign residence in Caspian region.""""

Remember that Amricans plan their actions carefully, and if they will consider it profitable for the enterprize called the "informal american empire" in the long run, then those tens of thousand of millions will be a worthy investment. Remember Marshall aid policy:)

""""I know that only first two cases concern Russia, but the US makes business of all of them- anyway ate there any qualitative, not populist opinions on the web?""""

CATO institute as well as Stratfor has EXTENSIVE analysis on this. Look for Niclas Norling (November 2007) paper from the Caucasus and Central Asian institute as well as on the Michael Fredholm (October 2006) research on Gazprom crisis.

All in all there must be takes the broad perspective on this conflict and my Estonian colleague Karmo Tyyr in Estonian have written about it quite extensively. But in the nutshell the "plan putina" is to restore the Russian energy empire (its is also described in his rather plagiarized:) doctoral dissertation), and oviously it is not in the interests of the EU and the US allies. Goergia is the KEY for the pipelines conecting the Central Asian and Caspian energy supply markets and the EU demand markets. It is possible to rgue that "Plan Putina" was to have a clout over Caucasus, because Baku-Ceyhan pipeline and others run thru it:)

The problem is however with the irresponsible journalists. Because when Richard Hoolbrooke, H. Kissinger, Dr. Robert Gates, or Z. Brezinski speak about revival of the Russian imperial instincts, they PARTICULARLY referre to the energy empire the RF PM plans to build (he understood that the RF is not to qualified to build neither political no military one). However, the journalists translate it in simple empire discurse, and then Russian policy makers must answer to such accusations as utter rubbish, and also it agitates the marginal groups in neighboring states in russia, and the public opinion becomes negatively agitated.

Anyway, he idea of Kremlin keeping their hand on our winter energy supplies does not look tempting, knowing the previous experience already. And if I read writer Alex Solomin's writings (http://newspaper.moe-online.ru/rus_vopros/main/dlya_defstviya_nam_nujna_velikaya.html) then I really must just sigh, sigh....

Good luck with your academic endavours and all the best,

VS

P.s. also read about Alex Dugin and his marginal ideas becoming MAINSTREAM in today's Russian Army HQ...

Anonymous said...

Thanks a lot. Information provided by you is grand.

Looking forward to seeing You back,
student

Anonymous said...

Is there anything You would like to say concerning the struggle among western democratic world based in their liberal economics that roots in certain banking structures and contra movement of Arab/ Russian elites? I am worried because either has certain control over military spheres. Latest news including cut of Russian/ Nato relations and Syria's support to Russian policy in Georgian north regions in my opinion indicates even more serious problems than moving few countries in greater dept due to their military spending. Could it be business of war in new scale?

neal said...

The whole mechanism of interdependence between the Russian Federation and the EU should be reassessed now. Wholesome interdependence cannot be played according to the zero - sum game rules that the former Russian presidency played for the last eight years. The latest events in Georgia clearly show that Kremlin's policy makers still stick to the old paradigms of structural realism, and that the modern ideas of international relations are foreign to them.
-------------------

jnny

socialsignatures

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