Reappearance of Russian tanks on streets of the European country since the Prague spring 1968 , and vicarious demands to topple the current Georgian government shows that Kremlin policy makers still have not changed the thinking patterns of the Cold War era. The Russian Federation and particularly its PM won a Pyrrhic victory so far. Mr Putin' s wish to consolidate "his energy empire" backfired, because the US and the EU have vital interests securing alternative energy sources from the Caspian Sea region. The whole mechanism of interdependence between the Russian Federation and the EU should be reassessed now. Wholesome interdependence cannot be played according to the zero - sum game rules that the former Russian presidency played for the last eight years. The latest events in Georgia clearly show that Kremlin's policy makers still stick to the old paradigms of structural realism, and that the modern ideas of international relations are foreign to them.
The weight of Kremlin power and its cynical political games have blinded Mr Putin personally. The Russian PM probably thinks that all rulers should act similarly to him, and that probably explains his irritation about the personality of Mr Saakashvili and his irresponsible remark about Mr Putin. After Kremlin invaded other member of its own creation, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Republic of Georgia slammed the doors of the CIS. Actions of Kremlin were thus poorly staged, that even its staunchest autocratic allies and none (!) of the CIS members supported Kremlin's adventures.
The forthcoming months prior the US presidential elections have coincided with further determination of the balance of power in Kremlin. It will be a time when a new modus vivendi between the US and Russia will be formed. Also the US presidential candidates McCain and Obama are busy positioning themselves vis-a-vis Russia.
The EU member state presidents from Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and the Ukrainian president were in Tbilisi to support Georgian people to withstand the dire situation their country has found itself. Polish, Baltic and Ukrainian leaders have fresh memories about the harshness of Soviet yoke. They understood, that leaving the irresponsible Kremlin bear unattended in Georgia will only intoxicate the beast and then none of the neighboring countries around Russia can feel safe. Apparently Polish, Ukrainian and 3B representatives were not happy with the initial draft of the Sarkozy brokered peace initative, thus came their joint statement.
The French President's brokered plan was accepted by both warring parties after all. The cease fire is still fragile, Russian forces are still on the Georgian soil where the former have even established illegal checkpoints. There is the NATO emergency session planned for the next Tuesday, and after presidential orders the Secretary of State is visiting Paris and Tbilisi. In spite of the vacation time many Western statesmen are forced to act, while some leaders are still in Beijing.
Q: Where is the Latvian president?
Estonian and Lithuanian presidents announced that they will not attend the Beijing Olympic Games. Latvian president was probably tired from the domestic political turmoil, thus he preferred to relax and support Latvian sportsmen/women in Beijing. The US president was at the Beijing Olympics opening ceremony, and then left to Washington D.C. because of his global responsibilities. Nicolas Sarkozy managed to be at the opening ceremony in Beijing, and after leaving home he managed touring Moscow and Tbilisi as the acting head of the European presidency. Finally he brokered the Georgian and Russian peace deal. In Tbilisi French president had a possibility to meet also Polish, Ukrainian, Estonian, Lithuanian presidents and the Latvian prime minister, while the Latvian president was simply not there. If small democracies want to sustain their long term sustainability and be considered as viable partners in international arena, their politicians must be as active as the leaders of great powers. Valdis Zatlers unfortunately did not live up to his responsibilities when at least 600 000 Latvian citizens expected him as little as to morally support fellow Georgians.
A: The president with his buddies (Aigars Kalvītis & Co) is in Beijing watching basketball
Photo: Aivars Liepiņš