Friday, November 21, 2008

Economic crisis in Latvia - official pronouncements

Since the Latvian government now stands in a queue for the financial help from the IMF I simply could not resist to look out through the international warnings and responses of Latvian officials during last three years. This time I did not include warnings and analysis of my own, but searched through the world wide web to quickly see the most colourful responses of the Latvian officialdom.

The whole C- and R -word ``discourse`` started with the EU membership bonanza falling unexpectedly into the lap of the present coalition government three years ago. Instead of listening to numerous warning signs from several scholars, The Economist, IMF, credit rating agencies, and banks the incumbent government (the present government has 90% of the same members as in the government of Aigars Kalvitis) kept going with their irresponsible bacchanalia.

1. Tomasz Janowski, Is Latvia's economy following in Iceland's overheated footsteps?, Reuters, February 27, 2007.

2. Statement by IMF Mission to Latvia on 2007 Article IV Consultation Discussions Press Release No. 07/87, May 4, 2007

3. Alf Vanags and Morten Hansen, BICEPS report, Occasional paper No2, Inflation in Latvia: causes, prospects and consequences, Summmer 2007

4. Edward Hugh, The Latvian Economy, June 24, 2007

5. EUBusiness, EU envoy warns Latvia its economy is at risk, 12 July 2007

6. Fitch Downgrades Latvia to 'BBB+', Outlook Stable ## Aug #### #:## AM (EDT) Fitch Ratings-London-## August ####: Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Republic of Latvia's foreign currency Issuer Default rating (IDR) to 'BBB+' from 'A-' on August 17, 2007

7. Moody's downgrades Latvian, Estonian debt, September 5, 2007

8. Latvia & devaluation, Eastern Europe Baltic blues, Oct 18th 2007, The Economist

9. Budapest Business Journal, EU warns Latvia over economic hard landing, February 13th, 2008

Lets see how knowledgeable the Latvian governing clique was about the coming of the economic crisis:

1. December 31, 2005, Latvian Public TV. PM Aigars Kalvītis: ``dear compatriots! if we are not going to make gross mistakes, then we face seven fat years ahead of us. Seven fat years, if you remember the story about the Jacob``. ("Mīļie tautieši, ja netiks sadarītas kādas muļķības, tad mums priekšā ir septiņi bagāti gadi. Treknie gadi, ja atceras stāstu par Jāzepu.")

2007

2. May 11, 2007, Diena. The member of the Riga City Council and chief economist of the People´s Party (TP) Edmunds Krastiņš:`` There is no crisis and not going to be one! What economic crisis? We do not have to discuss about it - is the crisis inevitable, but rather about - whether such economic crisis is possible at all during upcoming years !``("Nekādas krīzes nav un nebūs! Kāda ekonomiskā krīze? Mums nav jādiskutē par to - vai krīze ir neizbēgama, bet gan par to - vai tāda ekonomiskā krīze vispār ir iespējama tuvākajos gados!")

3. Diena, October 10, 2007, Minster of Finance Oskars Spurdzins (TP) "with the 7,5% GDP growth and 6,3% annual inflation prediction for the next fiscal year the Ministry of Finance specialists worked on the budget with other experts, and if such predictions would be hold out then we could see a healthy economic growth in 2008."

4. Latvijas Avīze, October 25, 2007, PM Aigars Kalvītis: `` The growth is still quite high, but next year we expect a slight decline of the economic growth. `` ("Izaugsme joprojām ir augsta, taču nākamajā gadā varētu būt neliels kritums.")

5. ("Nedēļa" November 26, 2007) `` While responding to the question in the header, whether there is an economic crisis in Latvia, I can resolutely answer - there is no crisis. It is harder to respond to another question - whether we could see the crisis in the nearest future? The governor of the Bank of Latvia argues that we would not, while the head of the Economists Union-2010 Ojars Kehris agrees with him. ``(Uz virsrakstā izvirzīto jautājumu – ir vai nav Latvijā ekonomiskā krīze, var atbildēt viennozīmīgi: nekādas krīzes nav. Grūtāk ir atbildēt uz citu jautājumu – vai mūs šāda krīze nesagaida drīzā nākotnē? Latvijas Bankas prezidents apgalvo, ka nē; Ekonomistu apvienības – 2010 vadītājs Ojārs Kehris viņam piebalso. )


2008


6. TV LNT "900 sekundes", January 2, 2008, PM Ivars Godmanis: The society should not live with crisis expectations`` (Sabiedrībai nevajadzētu dzīvot krīzes gaidās.)


7. February 14, 2008, Governor of the Bank of Latvia Ilmars Rimšēvičs:`` crisis is in our heads. PM Godmanis: lets not get crazy! Rimsevics: krīze ir mūsu galvās. Godmanis: nepsihojam! TV Kas notiek Latvijā?14. februāris 2008 ``The Governor of the Bank of Latvia explains that crisis is in our heads and expresses his bewilderment about government watching with naive looks on their faces while simply reiterating the number of tasks reported to them after the European Commission report. The PM Ivars Godmanis reiterates that he was absolutely sure about such an high inflation in January, thus asked folks not to get mad.`` (``Latvijas Bankas prezidents Ilmārs Rimšēvičs skaidro, ka krīze ir mūsu galvās, izsaka izbrīnu, kāpēc pēc Eiropas Komisijas ziņojuma visi skatās naivām acīm, un uzskaita pasākumus, kas jāveic valdībai. Ministru prezidents Ivars Godmanis apgalvo, ka viņam bijis pilnīgi skaidrs, ka janvārī būs tik augsta inflācija, un aicina iedzīvotājus nepsihot.``)


8. Latvijas Avīze, March 5, 2008. Finanšu un kapitāla tirgus komisijas (FKTK) vadītājs Uldis Cērps: `` All in all we should not be too excitedly worried about the economic situation here``("Kopumā tuvākajā laikā par ekonomisko situāciju nevajadzētu pārspīlēti uztraukties.")

9. LETA, 2008.gada 15.aprīlis. Prezident of the Latvian Commercial bank Association Teodors Tverijons: ``We are not expecting record profits of our commercial banks, thus instead we are going to return to the normal rates of income``("Šogad nav gaidāms kārtējais rekords komercbanku peļņu rādītājos, tā vietā atgriezīsimies pie normāliem peļņas tempiem.")

10. Krumane: Talk about economic crisis in Latvia is exaggerated, LETA, April 29, 2008, "Talk about an economic crisis in Latvia at the moment is exaggerated, according to newly-appointed Financial and Capital Market Commission Chief (FKTK) Irena Krumane, who spoke in an interview on the LNT TV morning newscast".

11. LETA-REUTERS, April 23, 2008. IMF : ``we predict soft landing scenario for the Baltic States`` ( "Baltijas valstīm mēs prognozējam vieglas piezemēšanās scenāriju.")

12. Neatkarīgā Rīta Avīze, April 24, 2008. Minister of Finance Atis Slakteris and the Saeima Budget and Finance Committe head Kārlis Leiškalns: because of the declining tax revenues the state would not switch from the planned budget surplus to the customary budget deficit (valsts nodokļu ieņēmumu samazināšanās dēļ valsts nepāries no ieplānotā pārpalikuma budžeta uz savu ierasto deficīta budžetu.)

13. Diena, April 29, 2008, PM Ivars Godmanis after meeting the IMF mission representatives: ``we should not paint the future scenarios of economic development in too dark colors`` ("Nevajag dramatizēt situāciju par pesimistiskiem tautsaimniecības attīstības scenārijiem".)

14. LETA, June 4, 2008 The Governor of the Bank f Latvia, Mr Ilmārs Rimšēvics in the Baltic Sea region business conference: The Baltic Sea region stakeholders must understand the situation in the Baltic Sea region and should think about the present crisis more optimistically. "It must be underlined that the financial system in the Baltic Sea region is very stable". The global liquidity crisis would be over soon, and its effects on the Baltic Sea region would be limited. (Latvijas Bankas prezidents Ilmārs Rimševičs Rīgā notiekošās Baltijas jūras reģiona valstu biznesa konferencē: Baltijas jūras reģiona spēlētājiem ir jāizprot situācija Baltijas jūras reģionā un jāuztver tā daudz optimistiskāk. "Jāuzsver, ka Baltijas jūras reģiona finanšu sistēma ir ļoti veselīga." Globālā likviditātes krīze ir beigusies, un tās ietekme Baltijas jūras reģionā ir minimāla.)

15. Dienas Bizness, 2008.gada 8. oktobris. Latvijas Komercbanku asociācijas prezidents Teodors Tverijons: ``the situation in Latvian banks is more than stable(...) I can firmly assure you, that there is not a single bank that would face problems`` ("Banku stāvoklis ir vairāk nekā stabils (..) varu droši apgalvot, ka nevienai bankai nepatikšanas nedraud.")

16. Aigars Kalvītis in the People´s Party Congress in October 18, 2008: ``So what, fat years were reality indeed. A bit shorter than we wanted, but perhaps even more informative lesson for us``("Nu ko, treknie gadi bija realitāte, īsāka, nekā gribētos, bet varbūt tieši tāpēc daudz pamācošāka.")

17. Diena, November 11, 2008, PM Ivars Godmanis: `` we should not exaggerate (...)annual GDP could decline this year by 1,3%``("Nevajag pārspīlēt (..) IK šogad varētu samazināties par 1,3%.")

So I finish with the news about the Latvian Central Bank making biggest weekly lats purchase since 2006 on November 19, 2008, reported by BBN. And as if these news are not worrisome enough the Latvian Security Police detained the Ventspils University lecturer Dmitry Smirnov reports Delfi. Mr Smirnov dared to argue in his article for the regional paper Ventas Balss about the sorry state of Latvian economy and possible devaluation of the national currency looming. You can actually have a quick coverage on this issue here . Common, wake up quasi-Leninst Latvia, there is no way out of this crisis if lecturers are detained for simply arguing about the present ills of economy, it is simply too ludicrous...


Text on the boat: The State


Cartoon: Gatis Šļūka

38 comments:

Magnus said...

(by mistake this comment also appeared on your previous article)

No matter how bad the government has run Latvia's economy the last three years (which they have done at least fiscally), I don't agree that all what we are seeing this autumn can be blamed simply on bad governance. The current finance-crisis is hitting all economies, also well-run ones like Dutch and Swiss.

However, I agree that the lack of economic realism the last years will lead to Latvia suffering more then most other countries. If in Q2 and Q3 of 2007 bigger inflation-curbing measures had been put into effect, and big projects like National Library been postponed for harder times (which in fact Zatler argued), the current deficit of government wouldn't have been so big and the Ministry of Finance would have had more availible tools at their disposal.

Currently, the Lat is the biggest obstacle. To keep the currency pegged to the Euro, Latvia needs higher interest rates than in the Euro-area. But at the moment, lower interest rates are what is needed. I would therefore like to see from government a clear priority of how they will deal with this crises: a stable currency or fiscal stimulis. I suspect that in short time the government might be needed to make the 2nd choice, and let the Lat float (which would for sure mean a loss of Lat's value and a de facto devaluation) But I've been waiting for this for more than a year already, so the Bank of Latvija might in fact have more control of the Lat than we think.

Baltic said...

Moi!

I agree with you on the fact that NOT ONLY Latvian government clique is to be blamed for the sorry state of Latvian finance.

However, there at least 3 factors that government/monetary authorieties are directly responsible for. First, with economy galloping from 2005 onweards the excess monies (M2) were not withdrawn from the circulation by the BoL (they must do it in conjunction with FKTK), and here I dunno who is the major culprit, because Rimshevics in his official pronouncements blames the government (FKTK) and the latter throws the ball back into BoL courtyard...

Second, instead of curbing the excesses of government bacchanalia (living with budget deficits ALL THESE YEARS of high GDP growth), Kalvitis & Co had to enjoy their "seven fat years"... .

And finally, instead of cushioning the economy in advance from the future slowdown the LAT government did not do ANYTHING, and the minister of finance decision to make the reserve fund in September 2008 seemed more like a gallows joke.

National library is an obsession of the orange fraction in the government, because the former PM skele business buddies are to earn nice monies there, and minister of culture is obsessed by this project.

Actually, no sensible person (including me + I have donated monies for construction of the new Gaismas Pils) could argue against the national library, and TP strategists know it. Thus even if I consider the costs as excessive and the competition non-transparent, I cannot object the project now, when fiscal stimuli is needed:)

Lat peg is an obstacle and I remember asking the same question from JL economics trained MP's about 1,5 years ago (actually asked the same TP chief economist Edmunds Krastins, why do we not allow lat to be floated:). Yet, now there is a precedent created with the Ventspils Augstskla colleague, thus better be careful:)

+ if the float would be allowed, the act that would most probably create a RUN on the national currency, I am afraid that it would KILL the nascent middle class in LAT... with all the consequences to bear:) Alternative is to make the government small, efficient and start reforming the education system...but with reform taking place NOW the results would be seen after 5 years at earliest...thus LAT is in a visious circle, sorry state indeed:(

Robert said...

I'm trying to gather some interesting observations of signs of crisis in everyday life in Riga in my cricis diary http://www.rigacityonline.com/riga_crisis

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