Tuesday, January 6, 2009

New year with new pollsters

Happy New Year to All! The end of the year was busy and relaxing at the same time. Spent a quality time together with my family and I am grateful to all the relatives and friends we were able to share the Holiday Season together with! First, I was contemplating to write a customary end of the year piece but later reconsidered my plans. Most of the busiest tasks are finished, and new year starts with new challenges.

Latvian political environment is slowly being heated up, and I will have lengthy analysis about the 2009 scenarios in Latvian politics during upcoming weeks. The politics is worth to be analyzed because the government finally published the document today, which explains under what condition the government would borrow monies from the international financial institutions. In the meantime the December "Latvijas Fakti" pollster was published in Diena today. There are neither news, nor surprises in the pollster. The full table reveals that the number of undecided voters (33,2%) witnessed a one percent decrease due to the increased number of alienated voters, and the latter percentage has reached the level of 21,9 %(+6,7 increase from a month earlier).

What party you would vote for, if elections to Saeima would take place tomorrow?

Only the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) would squeeze into the parliament from the present governing governing coalition according to the pollster. The PM efforts to contain economic rot are left in open air, and his party is simply nowhere near to be even represented.

God's eternal mills grind perpetually and the time for present governing coalition cum immediate post - Soviet political generation is slowly ticking away... .


Pierre said...

These polling numbers are incomplete: first of all they only add up to 93.7%. Second, if only those expressing a preference in the poll actually showed up to vote, then all parties would be in the Saeima!

I'll grant you that this scenario is extreme. I would expect a good number of undecided to show up on election day. Latvians may be politically apathetic these days (we'll see how January 13 pans out!), but I can't imagine an election turnout below 60% (what was it in the last elections?).

In any event, I appreciate your commentary and look forward to your analysis in the coming weeks and months.

Baltic said...


You are right, and the full scales are in Diena link, that you can reach while clicking on the Diena link.

I did not propose any scenario yet, just mentined that the time for the post-societ politicians is ticking away:) Also, the numbers speak for themselves. Just year ago governing coalition parties (TP, LC/LPP, TB/LNNK, ZZS) were supported by 23% of the electorate, and today...13% only. Lets wait till 13.01.09, and my assumptions are that regardless of the announcement about the latest number of unemployment in Latvia (the third highest in the EU and standing at 7%) the Dome square would see no more than replication of the 13 000 ``cappuchino rebels`` as of November 3, 2007.

Baltic said...

Thank you, checked up, and YES, polling numbers are incomplete:)

Citizen of a failed state said...

ZZS would make their way due to their loyal and conservative electorate only.
Case of SC is clear.. still popular among Slavs.
Hopefully Pilsniska Savieniba will manage to gain more support, because this is the only reasonable choice.

Though I don't support their unification with SCP, as there are rumors that SCP will represent the same interest of TP founding fathers in case if TP fails.

However it might turn out:
You know the available political resources. You must know all the gray influences. You just claimed that time of current leaders is ticking out. What is Your general speculation- what will fallow? (Please do skip the academic approach of "no predictions/ more research needed" in answering this)

Baltic said...

To citizen of failed state:

What is Your general speculation- what will fallow?

The 13.01 meeting will allow to see the real number of dissatisfied folks. Until now http://www.tavabalss.lv/site3/ has collected - 13 342 signatures, thus my estimation would be that there could be between 15-20 000 people in Dome Square.

The fact that SC agreed to participate in Sunday night shows, that they have probably reconsidered the offer made to them by TP.

Today´s meeting should initiate consolidation of the opposition, because there is NO NEED for snap elections without amendmends in election laws (so called locomotive principle employed) - and the evening of 13.11 would show what direction the momentum will go. I do not know what are the plans for the follow up, but will learn about them today. Stay tuned, and we shall hear the news pretty soon:)