The 16th government in LV since independence in 1991

According to Latvian Constitution it is the President who asks the future prime minister to form the cabinet (Art. 56). Following political traditions usually it is the leader of the winning political party who leads the cabinet formation after elections. It means that for a month the coordination process (as determined by the constitution) between majority winning political parties|political unions and consultations with the president's chancellery takes place between the elections and the first session of the parliament.

The Unity political union (New Era, Civic Union and Society for Another politics political parties) won the elections and gained a third of 100 member parliament's seats, and Valdis Dombrovskis started forming the future Latvian cabinet. At first there was a chance to form truly formative Latvian grand coalition government, however due to disagreements within Unity political union, at the end the Unity and the Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF) formed the new cabinet.

Last Friday the first version of the new government declaration became available, and now this 29. page long document is fully accessible for scrutiny. Yesterday the 10th Latvian Saeima (parliament) convened for the emergency session and with the 63 YEA and 35 NAY votes approved the new Latvian Cabinet. In the 16th Cabinet since Latvia restored its independence in 1991 there are now seven ministers from the Unity and six from the UGF party. The new cabinet formation was rather bumpy and thus there are pundits who do not predict the government a long tenure. My personal views together with other colleagues are expressed here. I am more inclined to believe that if Valdis Dombrovsksis would be able to focus on his immense inner qualities he could become the longest serving PM in the Latvian history. It would essentially mean that starting from 2012 onwards Mr Dombrovskis would have to change his present austerity measures discourse to one that would inspire Latvian folks to jump start their political and economic system in new quality. For such discourse transformation there is a dire need to transform antiquated state administrative procedures and agencies. The Latvian Internal Revenue Service and Ministry of Education structure and personnel policies must be overhauled in order to achieve structural changes in Latvian economy. The rule of law without shake up of Latvian courts is impossible and last but not least the mandatory property and tax declaration system must be passed as soon as possible, because it is looooooooong overdue. Thus, if these reforms would be accomplished Latvian people could regain the trust in democratic governance and would most probably follow the new challenges that the new and R&D powered economy would pose.

The Latvian new Cabinet started its work yesterday and with high probability the author of these lines would start facing new challenges in his life. Due to my future job requirements I would not be able to comment on Latvian domestic politics in blogosphere as often anymore. However, I would continue to publish once monthly in the Baltic Times and add to the ongoing scientific research.

Official results of the October 2 elections in Latvia

It has been known already that political unions are inherently unstable and during last parliamentary elections only political unions were elected into the Latvian Parliament (Saeima). Purists would remind me that Harmony Centre has transformed into the political force which tends to position itself as a social democratic party. That is right but the heterogeneity of its membership, lack of truly democratic decision making process within that party, and relatively young age of the Harmony Centre party allows me to categorize it more like a political union rather than a stable party. But the internal composition of the political unions is not the issue I want to discuss tonight but rather to publish the latest significant news about the late elections.

Since almost two weeks it is announced that he Unity won the most seats (33) in the 100 member parliament, Harmony Center (29) came second, Union of Greens of Farmers (22) came third, and All for Latvia & For Good Latvia got eight seats each. The possible size and program of the governing coalition is still negotiated and incumbent Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis is prime figure behind this process.

Positions of different political unions was known so far but exact knowledge about who is who in the new parliament was officially announced only today. Since we have the official information (see below) it is possible to finally evaluate possible candidates for ministerial positions and their replacements into the new parliament. That would be most probably the next entry, because there is still about two weeks until the first session of the 10th Saeima, and the negotiations about the new governing coalition are bitter at times when all attention should be actually focused on the overhaul of the antiquated economic structure and boosting "green shoots" of the nascent economy.




Photo: Ieva Čīka/LETA

UNITY (33)

From the Riga electoral district: Ģirts Valdis Kristovskis (PS), Ojārs Kalniņš (PS), Lolita Čigāne (PS), Rasma Kārkliņa (PS), Ints Dālderis (JL), Inguna Rībena (JL), Andris Buiķis (JL), Ilze Viņķele (PS), Imants Lieģis (PS).

From the Livonian electoral district: Valdis Dombrovskis (JL), Artis Pabriks (SCP), Ilma Čepāne (PS), Ainars Latkovskis (JL), Ina Druviete (PS), Edvards Smiltēns (SCP), Andris Vilks (PS), Arvils Ašeradens (PS), Dzintars Ābiķis (SCP), Guntars Galvanovskis (JL), Dzintra Hirša (PS) un Ingmārs Čaklais (PS).

From the Latgale electoral district: Aleksejs Loskutovs (SCP) un Kārlis Šadurskis (PS),

From the electoral district in Courland: Solvita Āboltiņa (JL), Janīna Kursīte-Pakule (PS), Silva Bendrāte (JL) un Ingrīda Circene (JL).

From the electoral district in Semigallen: Sarmīte Ēlerte (PS), Artis Kampars (JL), Dzintars Zaķis (JL), Atis Lejiņš (SCP), Aigars Štokenbergs (SCP) un Klāvs Olšteins (JL).


HARMONY CENTER (29)

From the Riga electoral district: Jānis Urbanovičs, Sergejs Dolgopolovs, Andrejs Klementjevs, Artūrs Rubiks, Boriss Cilevičs, Sergejs Mirskis, Nikolajs Kabanovs, Igors Pimenovs, Mihails Zemļinskis, Igors Meļņikovs, Aleksejs Holostovs, Ņikita Ņikoforovs un Igors Zujevs.

From the Livonian electoral district: Ivans Klementjevs, Jānis Ādamsons, Juris Silovs, Aleksandrs Sakovskis.

From the Latgale electoral district: Jānis Tutins, Raimonds Rubiks, Ivans Ribakovs, Vladimirs Nikonovs, Aleksandrs Jakimovs, Aleksejs Burunovs, Sergejs Fjodorovs, Dmitrijs Rodionovs,

From the electoral district in Courland: Valērijs Agešins, Valērijs Kravcovs.

From the electoral district in Semigallen: Valentīns Grigorjevs un Vitālijs Orlovs.


UNION OF GREENS AND FARMERS (22)

From the Riga electoral district: Raimonds Vējonis, Kārlis Seržants, Jānis Strazdiņš,

From the Livonian electoral district: Jānis Dūklavs, Ingmārs Līdaka, Iveta Grigule, Armands Krauze, Vitauts Staņa, Andris Bērziņš

From the electoral district in Semigallen: Augusts Brigmanis, Andris Bērziņš, Uldis Augulis, Dace Reinika, Aivars Dronka

From the Latgale electoral district: Staņislavs Šķesters, Jānis Klaužs un Rihards Eigims

From the electoral district in Courland: Gundars Daudze, Aija Barča, Dana Reizniece, Oskars Zīds un Jānis Vucāns.


FOR GOOD LATVIA (8)

No Rīgas ievēlēti - Ainārs un Inese Šleseri (LPP/LC)

No Kurzemes ievēlēts Edgars Zalāns (TP)

No Vidzemes ievēlēti: Māris Kučinskis (TP) un Guntis Ulmanis

No Latgales ievēlēti: Rita Strode (LPP/LC) un Imants Bekešs,

No Zemgales ievēlēts Andris Šķēle (TP)


ALL FOR LATVIA (8)

No Rīgas ievēlēti: Dzintars Rasnačs (TB/LNNK) un Einārs Cilinskis (VL)

No Vidzemes ievēlēti: Raivis Dzintars (VL), Visvaldis Lācis (VL), Jānis Dombrava (VL)

No Latgales ievēlēta Inese Laizāne (VL)

No Kurzemes ievēlēts Gaidis Bērziņš (TB/LNNK)

No Zemgales ievēlēts Imants Parādnieks (VL)

P.S. Here are links to my latest articles on LV elections in Postimees, Delfi, Ukrainian daily, and TBT

Apņēmība un slava

Latvieši met izaicinājumu vispārzināmām patiesībām, atkal ievēlot krīzes valdību
Latvijas nesenie notikumi ir likuši pārskatīt vairākas modernās politekonomijas aksiomas. Pirmkārt, saglabāt stabilu valūtu sabrukuma apstākļos ir pašnāvnieciski. Latvija saglabāja savu eiro piesaistīto valūtu un ir atguvusi konkurētspēju, pateicoties t.s. iekšējai devalvācijai - lielu sabiedrisko tēriņu un algu samazināšanai. Finansu optimizācija pielīdzināma ap 14% no iekšzemes kopprodukta.
Pastāv aksioma, ka vēlētāji soda valdības, kuras uzspiež stingru ekonomisko politiku. Bet premjerministra Valda Dombrovska vadītā koalīcija uzvarēja 2. oktobra parlamenta vēlēšanās ar 58,6% balsu, par spīti tam, ka pārraudzīja iekšzemes kopprodukta krišanos par rekordlieliem - 18% - 2009. gadā. V. Dombrovska partija Vienotība gandrīz divkāršoja savu vietu skaitu parlamentā - tā ieguva 33 no 100 vietām.
Vēlētāji atspēkoja arī citu pieņēmumu,- ka nauda neizbēgami izkropļo politisko procesu, sevišķi nabadzīgajās valstīs. Galvenā oligarhu partiju apvienība Par labu Latviju tika sagrauta līdz 8 vietām, kaut gan tā bagātīgi šķieda naudu priekšvēlēšanu kampaņai, no-pērkot pat vispopulārāko neatkarīgo avīzi valstī. Vēlētāji, izrādās, pamatoti to vainoja par neapdomīgu politku treknajos gados. Pirms tam šīm pie apvienības piederīgām partijām Saeimā bija 33 vietas.
Ārzemnieki, kuri aizdeva Latvijai 7,5 miljardus eiro, ir atviegloti. Ekonomika atkal pieaug ar straujo eksporta un rūpniecības produkcijas kāpumu (gan saglabājas augsts bezdarbs ). Bet V.Dombrovskim ir jārisina jauna problēma. Ir parādījies jauns politiskais spēks –Saskaņas Centrs – centriski kreisa partija, kas galvenokārt apvieno etniskos krievus un pa daļai arī tos latviešus, kas ir vīlušies esošajās partijās. Saskaņas centrs jaunajā parlamentā ieguvis 29 vietas.
Saskaņas centrs varētu mēģināt aizvilināt Dombrovska galvenos partnerus - Zaļo un Zemnieku savienību, kura ieguvusi 22 vietas. Lai to novērstu, Dombrovskis varētu piedāvāt SC darījumu - nākt vismazākās koalīcijas partijas vietā, kurai ir 8 vietas. Tā ir ultranacionālistu apvienība ar netīkamām manierēm.
SC jau ir pie varas galvaspilsētā Rīgā. Taču ievest prokrievisku partiju nacionālā valdībā būtu liels politisks risks, un tāpēc Dombrovskis varētu izvēlēties turēties kopā ar jau esošajiem partneriem. Jaunā valdība jāizveido līdz 2. novembrim. Tad jāsāk strādāt pie nākamā gada budžeta. Tas nozīmēs vēl vairāk samazināt izdevumus un palielināt nodokļus, lai izpildītu starptautisko aizdevēju prasību - ievērot 6% budžeta deficīta no iekšzemes kopprodukta. Bet, lai izpildītu valdības mērķi - 2014. gadā ieviest eiro-, ar to varētu arī nepietikt.

P.S. Good friend Janis Irbe from Geneva sent me translation of this The Economist article and asked me to publish it, because he thinks it is essential to spread this info also in Latvian!

Parliamentary elections in Latvia - democracy won!

There is still about an hour till closing the election stations, but one is clear already - such a surge of electoral activity Latvia has not witnessed since 2002! In the 2002 parliamentary elections total of 72.5% voters participated, while during last parliamentary elections this number dropped to the scanty 61.5%. Representative democracy without voters controlling their representatives can turn out to be a fiction and between 1993-2010 the Latvian representative democracy was neither representative nor democratic. The ill famous "locomotive principle", which was finally evicted from the election law in 2009, allowed to manipulate election results and thus to ossify Latvian political culture. The fact that the locomotive principle was erased from the law is not a panacea and improvement of the political culture I envisage only for the 2014 parliamentary elections, because for the future parliament and government there are number of titanic economic tasks ahead of them.

The number of voters in Latvia at 16.00 stood at 45.6% today and this number is already greater than it was during 2006 elections. Also all electoral station around the world report unusually high electoral activity that could increase the total activity by a solid percentage point. My conservative predictions for the electoral participation stand at 67% and information from Riga electoral districts confirm that folks are standing in queues, which could shot the participation rate also over 70%.

This fact is the best news tonight and allow me to gladly announce that democracy is lively in Latvia! Possibly good election result would only confirm Latvian voters that their vote counts, and that is not a small thing! Possibly good result of these elections could sideline traditional Latvian oligarchic parties from power and I would not be surprised if partisan electors themselves would sideline such oligarchs as Andris Šķēle from power. Preliminary results could deliver devastating results for the former president Guntis Rumpītis-Ulmanis who foolishly believed in his vainglory. But lets leave predictions aside now, because even more intriguing would be to follow the future who is who's of the Latvian parliament.

The exit poll results would be revealed in 10 minutes and therefore I better finish now, because the most important fact has taken place already - the voters believed in their own sound judgement and they cast their vote in order to participate in making Latvia's and their own future for the next four years! Long live democracy!!!

The list of corrupt politicians to be announced!

According to Apollo the list of allegedly corrupt politicians who received payments from the long lasting Major of Ventspils should be announced in October 30, 2010 less than two days prior formative parliamentary elections in Latvia.

This is truly great news because publishing of the list of politicians who were eating from hands of the first member of the notorious AAA team, to put it into local colloquial, could unravel the corrupt networks of former and existing nomenclature in the post independence Latvia, which have strangled Latvia's development for the last nineteen years.

Lets wait and see now!

Less than week to GO in Latvia

Just five days have left till formative national elections in Latvia. For the first time since the reestablishment of the independence the election law would be tested without the unjust "party locomotive" system. Also the poisonous cleavage between the ethnic Latvian and Russian communities have been subdued so far and the whole election campaign have centered around the second cleavage in the Latvian society - one between democratic and illiberal political party groups. The biggest spenders of this year's political campaign are the oligarchic group "For Good Latvia" whose constitutive elements face court's decision on November 3, 2010. The court should decide whether parties (People's party & Latvian First|Latvian Way party union) who illegally got elected into the parliament in 2006 should repay about EUR 2mlj. into the state treasury?

A huge scandal is brewing in the national airliner Air Baltic Corporation (ABC) because according to IR the minority shareholder Baltijas Aviācijas Sistēmas has received circa EUR 150 000 payment from the majority shareholder ABC for using Air Baltic brand names while head of both minority and majority shareholder is the same person - Bertold Flick. The whole affair with Air Baltic brand being sold under questionable circumstances without proper oversight looks like a scam again... particularly after Bertold Flick's sensational announcement about expanding down South and causing the PM to act.

It is hard to say now whether announcements from ABC are meant to divert attention from other questionable deals of the corruptocratic political party, however one thing is clear, the shenanigans from oligarchic parties have a lot to loose if they are acting thus brazenly prior the 2010 elections. Oligarchic parties have built their quasi-feudal fiefdoms for the last nineteen years under aegis of private capital accumulation, as one underling of the People's Party tried to explain me in one embassy reception last week. The person who is presently employed by Saeima did not trust my comments about private capital accumulation not necessary being equated with oligarchization and corruption in other European states, and honestly believed that odious Latvian AAA team has done everything (!) legally. In addition he tried to underline the latter argument with the fact that he himself is a legal specialist...

The discussion was not fruitful because instead of rational arguments belief onto the system of inviolability of state underlined the whole discourse. My reference to the morality were laughed at and question about philanthropist activities of the AAA team (similar to robber barons building universities, libraries and art galleries in the US) was accepted as something Latvian robber barons could have thought about...

Better Latvian robber barons and their cleptocratic retinue stay thinking and Latvian enlightened voters make a clear and decisive sweeping of the corrupt Augean stables this weekend, because the filling of private pockets under the naked banner of private capital accumulation| privatization has almost killed the goose that lays golden eggs. It is about time for Latvian voters to wake up, pass the corrupt politicians into the dumpster of history, and and let their positive energies GO!

Dare to dream, Latvian citizen!

Time before elections is special and it cannot be truer in Latvia this year. The public opinion can be changed by internal implosion or endogenous pressure, and numerous events of the last three years facilitated reevaluation of some Latvian citizens’ comprehension about democratic citizenship. I am optimistic enough and believe that only if my compatriots would dare to dream better future could be ensured for Latvia. There have been several studies and ongoing investigations about the sorry state of the Latvian political culture. Analysis of past deeds requires looking back into the past, but already G.F.Hegel ominously concluded that: „the only thing we learn from history is that we never learn from it”. Thus, to avoid such propensity I have decided to look forward, and to paraphrase words from Martin Luther King I want to exclaim - dare to dream Latvian citizens!

I believe that the lack of humor in political discourse and artificial seriousness of the Latvian present political class in reality is a mask of inferiority complex. Those holding office would have to deal with their complexes themselves, and equally importantly it should not deter the rest of citizenry from joy of living, making fun, and dreaming!

Comfortable coach en route from Tallinn to Riga actually lulled me into a dream world a weak ago and I wanted to share it with my readers because of its positive undercurrent. Here goes: I saw the time prior to October 2, with all its major competitors. Predictions of sociologists and polls were right in predicting six major political unions contesting the battle, but at the end leaving only four largest winners. The campaign was fierce and there was plenty of mud slinging on Youtube and the TV brainwashing campaign was massive. Fortunately the festering cleavage between ethnic Latvians and Russians political parties became a nuisance and instead the political campaign centered on the second cleavage – the one between democratic and illiberal political forces.

September 2010 transformed the distrust among ethnic groups in Latvia because even though Union of Greens and Farmers was elected into the parliament Latvia got its first grand coalition consisting from Unity and Harmony Centre political unions. Opinions had to be reconciled within the Unity political group where traditional vision shortsightedly equated any leftist party with the Fifth Column of the former Metropolis. After that reciprocal statements from both political unions followed ensuring the wish to work for the benefit of all Latvians. Voters were convinced that for res publica to survive in long term and living standards to rise in foreseeable future Latvian middle class cannot support voracious lifestyle of self made oligarchic families anymore.

Major businessmen pouring ludicrous sums of monies into treasuries of the oligarchic parties gave a clear signal to Unity and Harmony Center voters about special interests and continued practice of state capture. However, without being elected their campaign financing disappeared into chimney of spin doctors’ mind boggling games. The agreement between two largest political forces came under leadership of Unity political group who entrusted Harmony Center government responsibility on equitable basis, and the head of the budget committee was entrusted to the representative of Greens and Farmers in order to break the antiquated tradition of emasculating opposition.

The coalition council served as a reform body which designed overhaul of antiquated Latvian governance and tax system. Thus, agreement right after elections was reached to introduce the mandatory tax declaration system and real estate amnesty law. Economists of two party groups agreed on rising real estate tax, and alleviating labor from excessive tax burden. The solution to the household debt was found and euro debts were converted into Latvian currency, and Latvian Development bank was founded to jumpstart Latvian small and medium size businesses. The cabinet returned to the principles of lean government, and comprehensive and universal remuneration system ensured corporate independence of the civil service system with principles of meritocracy finally institutionalized.

Political parties henceforth listened to academic representatives and ensured balanced development of body politics with timely legal amendments. Higher education reform established initially four public universities with later founding of the European center of academic excellence in Latvia with constantly increasing number of foreign students. Prosecutor General Office merged with Corruption Prevention Bureau and the new Prosecutor General after 2010 general elections after general reconciliation among political representatives issued arrest warrant to couple of most inconsiderate leaders of oligarchic clans.

Participation of Harmony Center in grand coalition allowed the Unity parties to discard unnecessary framing of Kremlin scare and pragmatically approach business opportunities in Russia. Eviction of obstacles to economic development fostered reconciliation among Latvian ethnic communities and the responsibility of being in the government made Harmony Center staunch supporters of the EU and NATO membership.

Latvia established not only its mediator’s role between the EU and Russia, but also became the world center of green energy and forestry studies. Passing the law on financing political parties from the state budget and establishing comprehensive campaign limits allowed think tanks of the political parties to pop up, and constitutive parties of the Unity and Harmony Center political unions gradually transformed into classical conservative, liberal, social democratic and green political forces.

And as for all the dreams also my bus from Tallinn had reached Riga bus terminal and I woke up to Latvian reality. But wait a minute, I contemplated again: “such dream scenario is actually possible only if Latvian politicians and voters would be courageous enough and dare to see alternative visions!”

P.S. Originally this article appeared in the Baltic Times September 9 edition
P.P.S. For Estonian readers here is my latest article in Postimees

Always Transforming but ''Permanent'' Governing Coalition in LV

Colleagues from Providus and Jurģis Bērziņs just published a splendid iconographic chart.



It analyzes the last 10 years in LV politics and calculates for how many days which party was responsible managing certain sector of economy, and for how long parties/party coalitions have had power. Excellent job!

Messy Latvian party political culture

Four years have passed since the 2006 parliamentary elections in Latvia. Even though the Supreme Court of Latvia ruled that election campaign was not truly legitimate, other Latvian courts still have not decided whether major culprits - People's & Latvian First and Latvian Way Union parties - are liable to repay illegally spent EUR 2 mlj. back into state treasury. Since the events four years back Latvian political environment has transformed and literally non of the political parties participate in the 2010 elections, even though almost all the same politicians would fight for the survival.

Purists would object me telling that there are still political parties in Latvia. Indeed there are circa 52 political parties/unions (State Company Registry (UR) data three months ago) in Latvia. But from thirteen party lists that are running for parliament in upcoming elections Cristian Democrats, and motley of strangely named parties like ''Daugave for Latvia'', ''People's Control'', ''Made in Latvia'', and ''For Presidential Republic'' are nowhere near the mandatory 5% threshold to enter the Saeima (parliament)... . Also, and even more importantly, only two (Union of Greens and Farmers and For Human Rights in Latvia) of the thirteen contenders for 100 seats in the parliament are founded prior 2006. The system is volatile and unfortunately classical political parties - conservatives, liberals, social democrats, greens - are not institutionalized in Latvia. Thus one may conclude that the party political system has pretty much returned to square one. Reasons for the party political system not being institutionalized are ample, and about those reasons there would be another blog entry coming soon.

In the following four charts I have used the ''Latvijas Fakti'', SKDS, and www.ir.lv data in order to roughly show alternations of support for the Latvian political parties/unions from January 2007 - August 2010.

SUPPORT for LV POLITICAL UNIONS 02.2008 - 07.2010



SUPPORT for LV POLITICAL PARTIES 01.2007 - 07.2010



SUPPORT for LV POLITICAL UNIONS July-August 2010 & POSSIBLE NUMBER OF SEATS IN THE PARLIAMENT



PERCENTAGE OF UNDECIDED VOTERS, THOSE WILLING TO VOTE FOR GOVERNMENT PARTIES, AND ALL OTHER POLITICAL PARTIES 01.2007 - 07.2010

Democratic systems and desire for a strong hand in Latvia

The UN membership is a sign abut a country taking the responsibility to follow basic principles of participation in global civil society, even though there is neither enforcement agency to impose such principles, uniform model of democracy, nor the system for punishing countries that are complacent or ignorant enough. The Council of Europe(CE) in Strasbourg serves the gatekeeper role to ensure that the prospective EU members abide by democratic norms in their legislatures, and also the EU itself offers OMC method and other tools for upgrading governance of the union. There are sceptics who say that the UNO or EC does not solve state’s constitutive problems stemming from neoliberal rule of markets, but they forget that the primary reason d’être of those organizations is to ensure peace and stability, and in democracies those are people who have to demand better governance through participation.

Particularly for young democracies it is essential to follow the best guidelines of democratic governance, because abiding to those rules improves governing capacity of young states and ensures their long term economic development. Empirical evidence in Europe since the First World War infallibly demonstrates that democracies rather than other forms of government are better at ensuring economic sustainability and balanced development of society.

Since late 1980’s three Baltic States (3B) have developed their own version of democratic governance. In many EU countries there is wrong perception about the existence of the European democratic model. In reality there are twenty seven of them and none of them is perfect, even though there are scholars and politicians who want to emphasize normative virtues of a specific kind because of particular interests. Most democracies follow the path dependency strategy and thus their chosen electoral systems stem from constellation of domestic political factions. Therefore normative importance of domestic models should not be overemphasized.
There always were and will be certain rancor about the work of government in any democracy, and there are numerous politicians who tend to keep accountable international organizations for their own misbehavior. Major reason why opinion polls traditionally show low support for incumbent politicians is the nature of government that has to make also painful decisions within certain time frame while keeping in mind inherently heterogeneous interests in society. Neither Latvian nor Lithuanian people feel that their personal welfare would suddenly improve according to last Eurobarometer bi - annual survey. Participation in elections is declining for the last twenty years and indicates that 3B citizens are disillusioned about politics. However, quantity of disillusioned and alienated voters in Latvia is dangerously high (50% of electorate on average from March 2007 onwards according to ‘’Latvijas Fakti’’), and according to ‘’Diena’’ survey last year 30% of those polled would have agreed with coup d’état in order to bring back order. Numerous Latvian politicians from Union of Greens of Farmers, People’s Party and Latvian First Party/Latvian Way are directly responsible for oligarchic groups continuing practice of state capture with impunity. Now they rashly proclaim that strong presidentialism is the only medicine for present evils. Before making their announcements they could at least consult scholars whom they have failed to listen for the last twenty years. Thus inadequately educated politicians could have learned that semi – presidential system in Lithuania was not panacea, because distrust in domestic representative institutions is almost identical in Latvia and Lithuania. Besides, Estonia’s democratic system is almost identical to Latvia but it does not deliver such appalling results as much the trust in representative democracy is concerned.

Since Lithuanian and Estonian constitutional caucus and free elections in 1992 Estonian political system is not as politically polarized as in Lithuania, and Lithuania is characterized so far by stable single party majority democracy. Political party membership is declining throughout the industrially developed world, but absolutely the lowest membership in the EU is in Latvia. In Lithuania between parliamentary sessions the public opinion traditionally swung between the right and left, and in Estonia the political pendulum has swung between liberal and conservative forces. Regardless of the turbulence caused by the successful impeachment procedure of the President Paksas in Lithuania, one may largely conclude that Lithuanian and Estonian democracies are consolidated to use the terminology of Robert Dahl, while Latvian demos still democratizes.

Among reasons for Lithuania and Estonia being consolidated democracies are constitutional caucuses that consequently made political forces to find consensus in new constitution in 1992, and establish rule of law early on. Latvia is the only CEE country where irreconcilable political groups rolled over the 1922 Consitution with some amendments after the 1993 elections. I have used the constitutional argument in couple of previous articles, but it should not be overestimated, because in Austria, for example, the provisional constitution of 1920 has been continuously amended without being approved in nationwide referendum by competing political forces and allowed Austrian democracy to flourish.

Real problems of governance rather reside in laws that Latvian lawmakers evaded – mandatory tax and property declaration system, party financing from state budget, and functional limits for election campaign financing - thus gradually corrupting the political culture. Aivars Lembergs, Andris Skele, and Ainars Slesers disdain for the rule of law is not a secret. These authoritarian and corrupt politicians and their dubiously educated retinue probably ascertained that disrespect to the rule of law led to impeachment of the Lithuanian president R. Paksas. That is the major reason why their pocket parties continue to recklessly call for strong hand, allowing legal nihilism to prevail and hindering birth of genuine rule of law in Latvia. To remove obstruction to thus fundamental legal documents the Prosecutor General Office in collaboration with KNAB should suspend operation of the Latvian People’s Party, Latvian Way & Latvian First Party and hence political union For Good Latvia until the disbursement of about EUR 2 mlj. into state treasury is settled. Not only the Latvian Supreme Court made a precedent with their November 3, 2006 decision stating that previously mentioned parties broke the law. Also the Council of Europe Venice Commission recommendations as well as the UN good governance principles recommend due process in present circumstances.

This article originally appeared in July 28, 2010 the Baltic Times

Whether geography matters in the Baltic constructed ’’world’’?

There are politicians in the Baltic States (3B) who persistently tend to emphasize the unique geographical position of their represented states. Thus the politicians continue to mislead themselves and broad swathes of society, because particularly since the end of the Cold War traditional relations between states, strategies of the military, and international trade policy has witnessed significant transformations.

Within the European Union 3B could be geographically unique indeed, because their size and relative weakness of interest groups should allow 3B to give up anachronistic vestiges of the nation state statecraft and be stellar examples of small but well governed economies. While Estonia has earned laudatory achievements due to its own merits Lithuania and Latvia still grapple with old fashioned premises of nation state governance. It is perhaps symptomatic that you barely hear from Estonian mainstream politicians mythical notions of historic destiny in matters of governance, because for a small, efficient and open economy it is essential to achieve results with available resources.

During the early 1990’s 3B experienced advantage of relatively abundant and cheap labor. Ever since early 1990’s underinvestment in education sector and rapid rise of comparative welfare determines now the future of 3B economies. The only factor of comparative advantage is its relatively free and pristine land. Those scholars and politicians who anachronistically follow geopolitical dictum and speak about the advantage of geographical position of 3B forget that geostrategic position foremost needs human infrastructure. To put it differently geography matters only with sustainable taxable income and here development of human resources has utmost importance.

Baltic ice free harbours connected by pipeline or railroad do not offer much value without population unable to sustain such primary infrastructure from their taxes. Today one may easily continue to be Estonian in Tahiti whilst watching the Estonian Broadcasting Corporation emissions via satellite and ordering his favourite merchandise or services via internet. Technologies and in the World Trade Organization embedded international trade flows are producing truly global economy. It changes old paradigms and brakes material borders. However, it is harder to break mental borders which were constructed into people’s minds through formal education system. Education systems are traditionally conservative, and what really distinguishes well developing and declining economies today are education systems that are able to reform. Ability to reemphasize countries’ prerogatives of foreign trade, upgrade governance, and invest in education as bedrock of viable democracy determines countries’ position in international pecking order. To measure just few international indexes (World Economic Forum, Pisa, UNPA e-government a.o.) it becomes apparent that Latvia continuously falls in terms of its development not only behind Estonia, but now also behind Lithuania and Poland.

3B are ideally positioned to learn from historic examples around them. Finland and West Germany as vanquished countries came out of the war as modernizers leaving anachronistic belief in geographical dictum behind them. At the same time it was the USSR before and now Russia which continues to construct the language of 19.century imperialism and under invests in its human and material infrastructure. Learning from other’s mistakes rather from one’s own distinguishes smart collectivities from not so smart ones. It would be advisable for 3B populations to wake up from wrong myths about ’’special geographical position’’ of their states, ’’bottomless Eastern market’’ or naive assumptions about their countries comparative advantages as ’’the real crossroads between the East and West’’. The 3B are tiny and depopulating, thus geography still matters when one must choose ones strategic partners.

Lithuanian Polish relations are exemplary as well as the Estonian – Finnish relations are institutionally flourishing today. Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian unity with the Baltic Assembly regular sessions and specialized cooperation between particular branches of government looks good, but in reality the 3B cooperation is an elitist endavour without substantial interdependence.
The traditional promoter of the Baltic cooperation is unable to project Latvian soft power even domestically because of governance system being in shambles. Since avoidance of insolvency now Latvia 2.0 needs paradigmatic change of cooperation with its neighbors. Unfortunately Latvia has wasted nineteen years and its external space of maneuvering is limited. Latvian government must continue cooperation with its Baltic neighbors in economic and energy policies. Politically, however, Latvian political class must decide whether they want to develop embedded relations on axis with Scandinavian countries, Poland or Moscow. The infantile policy of oligarchic parties falsely claiming that Latvia is securely embedded in Western security structure and thus free to cooperate and trade with everyone in the East, North, South and West is wrong. Latvian oligarchic groups are thus poorly educated that they have not even learned the old maxim: ’’you cannot serve two kings at the same time’’. It is time for Latvian politicians to wake up from self inflicted and smug dream world, assess the dynamically transforming external environment and decide which path of development they want to emulate. Estonia is reassessing its economic relations with Russia as Lithuania does, but it goes through the transparent process of strengthening the domestic governing capacity and rule of law. Without Latvia 2.0 being implemented the outdated geographical dictum could eventually materialize, but it would not offer Latvia even a chance for a spot on ‘the crossroads between the East and West’’, but simply assign it to the proxy role of transit depot for Eastern hydrocarbon barons...

P.S. Originally this article appeared in the Baltic Times July 1, 2010 issue.

Political structure and formulation of national interest in 3B

The prerequisite for the following of the national interest is the interest aggregation of similarly minded ideological groups of people and the ability of state entities to govern efficiently. Interest aggregation is a continuous process that stems from the foundations of the republic. Efficient government is based on promoting the best possible human resources, thus the virtues of meritocracy and home grown elites would prevail. Interest aggregation and efficient government in the Baltic States (3B) until 2004 were focused on overhauling their antiquated governance systems and fulfilling strategic goals.

In hindsight, one may determine that those alarmists in Riga and Vilnius, who blamed Tallinn for using public relations strategies in order to be invited to start EU membership negotiations after the Luxembourg Summit in 1997 were wrong. Estonia used membership in the Western Club organizations as a means to an end, and such strategy has served Estonia well so far. In May 2010, Estonia was invited to become a member of the OECD and probably in early 2011 would become the member of Euroland.

There are academics and politicians who caution Estonia against entering into the eurozone at a time when the unique currency is undergoing its biggest crisis since its introduction in 1999. There are authors with apocalyptic visions about the demise of the Euroland and EU, but representatives of moderate views are gaining consensus about the roots of the economic and financial governance in the EU - the lack of leadership and inability of the domestic actors to adapt to the dynamic change that is endogenously formulated.

Development strategies have been formulated in the UN and EU, and, since the end of the Cold War, also in the World Bank and IMF volumes of literature have been written about the different policy mix needed to achieve the desired results. The bottom line for achieving tangible results, however, is the ability of domestic political forces to adapt to the dynamic international environment and thus continuously reformulate opportunities that the global marketplace of ideas

Writing of new constitutions in Estonia and Lithuania, differently from Latvia, allowed elites to reemphasize the ideals of their republics and establish generally accepted rules of the game, thus they could readjust their national interest within a level playing field See net neutrality. after major strategic achievements.

Since the early 1990s the power in Lithuania has oscillated between conservative and social democratic majority coalitions. Upgrading of the Lithuanian polity culminated in establishing a mixed voting system as well as in establishing the semi-presidential system. The Estonian coalition of liberal, conservative and moderate political forces have traditionally united against the political depredations of the founder of the Center Party, Mr. Edgar Savisaar. Since the last parliamentary elections, and particularly since local elections in 2009, one may notice that the Estonian party system is transforming after the leadership change among the Social Democrats and heavy disagreements in the People's Union party. The upcoming parliamentary elections in 2011 will probably be hard fought.

It will be interesting to see whether development strategies of the right wing coalition will have credible alternatives coming from the Estonian center left coalition. The absence of mutually accepted rules of the political game differentiates Latvia's development from its Baltic neighbors. The Eurobarometer survey shows that in terms of general distrust in their representative institutions, Estonia is a positive exception among the 3B. Therefore, present Latvian negative exceptionalism is explained with the avoidance of insolvency, doubling of the rate of national debt and continuous political crisis.

Navigating the national economy in times of global economic and financial crisis is a formidable task. The efforts of Mr. Kubilius' government, with President Grybauskaite, to balance formulation of the national interest and to cut red tape do not make him popular. However, the task of Mr. Kubilius is made understandable for the average voter because it was the coalition government, led by the Lithuanian Social Democrats which governed Lithuania into recession and lost in the elections as a result. Latvia's dilapidated governing coalition is unnatural, and ethnic Latvian vs. Russian as well as democratic vs. oligarchic cleavages cut across Latvia's political spectrum.

It is nearly impossible to agree on future development strategies when blackmail, filibustering and populism prevail in the Latvian political culture. In such an environment sound advice of Western partners is not heard, short term policies are embedded, and external enemies are continuously reframed in order to consolidate undecided voters. It only fosters resentment and apathy, when politicians with questionable credentials are pushed through the political machinery to become members of the Constitutional Court, or when the work of the Corruption Prevention Bureau is undermined with the appointment of a heavily indebted person at its helm.

Latvia's ageing population is waiting for unequivocally understood rules of the game, while the younger generation adds to the increasing brain drain. A positive outcome of the October 2010 elections is a prerequisite for the formulation of long term national interests. Traditional political parties in Latvia This is a list of political parties in Latvia.

Latvia has a multi-party system, where no one party often has a chance of gaining power alone, and parties must work with each other to form coalition governments. continue to rely on questionable strategies of spin-doctors, and clearly defined economic programs for stopping deindustrialization and eradicating roots of political crisis that would transcend existing cleavages in society are not yet presented. With such a strategy Latvia's political class continues to fall behind its vexed Baltic neighbors, and gives ample tools to the folks who question the very existence of Latvia.

P.S. Originally this article appeared in the Baltic Times May 27, 2010 issue.

P.P.S. The June TBT article you can access here, latest piece for Estonian readers you may find here, and for the Latvian readers there is something here.

LV October 2010 election campaign symbolism

Gatis Šļūka is prophetic and managed to capture symbolic meaning of the 2010 elections in Latvia!



[They are not going to step on this enormous rake AGAIN!]
[Oh my, they will! You just need to advertise it ENOUGH]







FOR [BRAIN]WASHED LATVIA



[Who is going to meet voters eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth?]
[Otomārs should go, because he has neither teeth left nor good eyesight]



The Minister of Finance to the PM Dombrovskis [We put the new battery (IMF) in, but the van still does not start!]

TRANSfiguration of the political system

Transfiguration is usually referred to the religious and miraculous transformations. To avoid meddling into sphere of divine I underlined the TRANS part in order to stress the aspect of transition. While our lives are transitory we still live within societies that create more or less stable systems and institutions of governance. Whilst following debates in the Latvian society I have made some hypothetical assumptions about the society which has been disoriented due to wrong constitutional principles, lack of rule of law, deindustrialization and constant decrease of funds for the educational sector. The latter aspect during those economically turbulent times has literally impoverished Latvian higher education system. Thus, rather large chunk of society is hoping for divine intervention, and it vicariously underlines the figuration part in header:) The Latvian demos majority instead of taking their fate in their own hands hopes for messiah. Thus the Latvian political system suffers under the stress of post-totalitarian inertia. Europeanization of the Latvian political system has halted since Latvia joined the European Union, and the traditional pressure groups and authorities still have unduly authority, thus preventing legal rational authority to reign supreme.

The Latvian Supreme Court on November 3, 2006 ruled that during the October 2006 parliamentary elections victorious People's Party (PP) and The Latvian Way and First Party Union (LWFPU) breached the election law. The Corruption Prevention Bureau (KNAB) under the leadership of A.Loskutovs demanded both parties to pay about 2.mlj EUR (LVL1mlj PP & LVL500 000 thousand LWFPU) into state treasury. Insistence of Mr Loskutovs office appeared to be thus dangerous, that Aleksejs Loskutovs was illegally sacked in 2008. The Latvian Prosecutor's Office was meek enough, and today neither the monies are paid into treasury nor the previously mentioned parties banned. Illegality of Mr Loskutovs sacking was proven by court decision at the end of 2009, but Prime Ministers have changed twice since Mr Loskutovs was fired. While one of the former heads of the cabinet simply did not care about the state affairs, another one at least expressed his wish to see the most qualified person running for the KNAB. Nevertheless, Normunds Vilnitis with rather questionable credentials was found. Heavily indebted Mr Vilnītis (his personal liabilities amount EUR 200 000 and his wife's amount LVL 1,5mlj) is reshuffling organizational structure of KNAB, and it appears to be thus important that some odious persons attentively follow the latest news in this sensitive office. In the meantime oligarchic PP& LWLFP party organizations merged and their spin doctors are having a feast and electioneering!

Virtual dismemberment of the properly functioning legal system go hand in hand with the election campaign today. Instead of following principles of due process the same corrupt politicians continue their cynical politicking, and this is just a perfect Māris Bišofs cartoon explaining how the political kitchen of Latvia Ltd. works:)

Slesis (The former Minister of Transport Ainars Lesinskis-Slesers)
TP (tautas partija) - People's Party (PP)
LPP (latvijas pirmā partija) - Latvian First Party (FP)
PLL (par labu latviju) - For Good Latvia (movement of corrupt entrepreneurs feeding for the last 20. years on government contracts, and designed to enable PP + LWFPU to avoid paying circa 2. mlj EUR into state treasury and LEGALLY run for the parliament AGAIN)

THIS IS OUR NEW MODEL



As a consequence there is little faith left for Europeanized change in this only remaining post-totalitarian Baltic State. After the President Vaira Vike Freiberga left the office the election process of the new head of the Supreme Court, three members of the Constitutional Court, the head of the Anti-Corruption Agency and the Prosecutor General have been questionable to sound diplomatic enough. At times when the republic of Latvia experiences questioning of its very raison d'etre unqualified shenanigans are promoted for jobs in public office and there is no one to enforce the rule of law...

P.S. Here are the links to my April and May articles in the Baltic Times. For Latvian readers here is a link to my article in IR and for Estonian readers here is a link to my article in Diplomaatia.

Latvian development through the eyes of cartoonist - April 2010

While Latvia prepares for the ''hot'' summer electioneering campaign prior autumn elections the mood is country is sombre or some might say even desperate. Noticed today that some smart folks in Russia used my previous blog entries for depicting the mood in Latvia with the help of cartoons. Another commentator quite revealingly concluded that there is enough said about Latvia these days. I cannot agree more... and here you have again a chosen set of fantastically revealing cartoons of Gatis Sluka.

P.S. Because my last entry I finished with the cartoon depicting the theme of roadworks decided to start this set with the same topic. Why? Because while in neighboring Baltic countries the EU funds were used to upgrade their road network Latvian former transport supremo and transport ministers before him were negligent enough, and allowed the Latvian road system to turn into permanent state of disrepair...



[Driving school] And now the toughest task ahead - getting around the potholes!



OPTIMIZATION
1. [Red house] Vocational school for road workers and next to it [greyish house]Technical school
2. [greyish house] ''Pothole fixer'' evening school



Please be so kind - I need something for sclerosis!



CRISIS STAGE





Yiddish Proverb: Don't spit into the well - you might drink from it later...AND Latvian Proverb: Do not cut the tree branch you are sitting on...
[Passer by] It seems that he can do both things at the same time!



Unemployed and destitute folks in front of the Latvian Cabinet November 2009 [GIVE US WORK!]-[Policeman] According to the City of Riga regulations you are not allowed to pitch tents in green area, and you must get rid of them!
LATER GIVE US WORK!



TRANSIT thru Latvia...



And what about me as the youngest son, what would I get? DEBTS!



CASH WITHDRAWAL/DOWN PAYMENT Man with the hat - devaluation of the lat? Other man - illegal payments?



PAREX BANK [Excuse us, but this play shall be staged behind closed curtains!]



HOSPITAL [If you were able to crawl here on your own then do not waste our time!]



[Latvian Economy] or better use ominous term Latvionomics (first designed by Morten Hansen)



[Tax-Ax in ''flesh'' of an economy] But my shadow shall stay forewer!



What are you doing? Social cushion was designed for different purpose [Dombrovskis government prepared in 2009 so called social cushion to alleviate hordes of unemployed]



[Books] How to stay an optimist? How to find a job? Be successful!



1966 - what is going to hapen with you? Astronaut!
2006 - who do you want to become to? A banker!
2010 - interesting, what is going to be your future profession? Debt collector!



[Work] You first! No, you first! Story about the extention of the unemployment benefits...

Ignorance cannot get any better...

Instead of working the way out from the economic malaise the Latvian fragmented and corrupt political class continues playing reclessly dangerous games. While the trust in major institutions of representative democracy have literally evaporated, and economy stalled so called opposition politicans obstruct forming of wholesome Latvian Cabinet. After the Peoples Party (PP) left the governing coalition, it has played a nasty game. Since 2004 PP was continuously member of the government. Now the tactics of PP representatives, whose minds are poisoned with fancy and abstract models of public relations ''theories'', is to act oportunistically and blame all the wrongdoings on their former colleagues and incumbent ministers.

Yesterday it was announced that former prime minister has decided to hook up with the former transport supremo and that their campaign slogan would sound like insolvable arithmetic puzzle - (A+Š)². It is not a secret that one of the most lunatic PR specialists from agency MOOZ is behind all the ludicrous ideas of the Latvian oligarchic families. Last year the same PR ''specialist'' and his retinue achieved bad fame while organizing false campaign about fallen meteorite which allowed Latvia to circle in world media as a rather questionable state entity. It seems that former prime minister and transport supremo are resorting to all means possible, if they continue trusting lunatics, whose cynicism and smug behavior has surpassed limits of sanity.

Today, the former corrupt ministers Slesers & Skele, who became odiosly famous during Jurmalgate affair (which was partially solved and did not touch masterminds of this drab affair)), should announce their five point program to lead Latvia out from the economic malaise. The program is almost exact emulation of the program of incumbent Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis (what about copyright laws in LV:)). It plans to rise taxes on capital earnings, stipulate taxable amount from real estate, delegate the right to collect personal income tax to municipalities (which should create havoc in Latvian unitary state tax collecting system) and to lower VAT on ecological food... These proposals in effect are smokescreen, because whilst following the best traditions of Latvionomics (thank you Morten Hansen for inventing the new term!)(A+Š)² lunatics want to eliminate excise tax on natural gas. The latter proposal is the CRUX of the whole five point program because it vicariously explains that Latvian dependency on the Russian gas supplies is to be embedded. The latter point is contrary to the present plan of the government, who wants to have Latvia using energy mix from green energy that is abundant in Latvian rivers, forests, and bogs, and nuclear energy together with other two Baltic States.

The plans of corrupt Latvian politicians or so called AAA team are gradually becoming public. Until now corrupt former ministers have relied on lunatic PR specialists, which does not add much credibility to anything they say. In the meantime the Cabinet must find new ministers of justice, foreign affairs and health. The malaice and distrust is thus owerwhelming that nobody really wants to become minister in order not to taint ones public image, as it happened with Messrs Razans and Ronis, who were offered the positions of the minister of foreign affairs. The biggest bone of contention is the post of the minister of justice, because the criminally indicted major of Ventspils is extremely interested to save himself from justice. Last week due to Mr Lembergs instrumental behavior Janis Maizitis election for the third consecutive term as the Prosecutor General failed.

Virtual emasculation of the justice system in Latvia would be complete if the post of Prosecutor General and Minister of Justice would fall prey to the ill famous AAA team. Just to remind you that the former head of the Corruption Prevention Bureau Mr Loskutovs was toppled with the help of PP ministers back in 2007. During the same year tenure of the former prezident V. Vike Freiberga ended and under extremely questionable circumstances the incumbent president Valdis Zatlers was elected. In 2009 the new head of the Supreme Court (he nominates the Prosecutor General for the parliament to be appointed) Mr Bickovics was elected, even though journalists discovered that he had lied about the procedure of getting Latvian citizenship. Last week Prosecutor general without ANY DISCUSSIONS in the parliament was not appointed for the third term because MP's resorted to vote with closed bulletins. I am not happy with the work of Janis Maizitis, because also due to his appeasing character the Latvian state law enforcement abilities are far from functioning. However, the way the majority of MP's acted and still continue to act makes me once again realize that this prliament SHOULD HAVE BEEN SACKED LONG TIME AGO.

We are stuck with disfunctioning parliament that poisons the work of the cabinet now, however. There are almost no rational discussions in public domain, because provincial calculations among incumbent political class reign supreme. Major calculation of the present MP's is about ensuring their own enrichment, because not only tens of thousands of Latvian households but also numerous MP's took mortgage and consumer loans, and without not being elected they would have to drastically change their lucrative lifestyle. Such situation embedds the system of short term thinking and acting, and there is virtually none to start acting about long term needs of the Republic of Latvia. First and foremost, the Latvian legal and law enforcement branches are thus weak that they cannot defend interests of the public against depredations of the well organized interest groups.

It sounds pathetic, however, this situation breeds idiocy or path dependency, which does allow neither comprehensive debate nor balanced further development of Latvian society. The following five month until elections are not promising for Latvian citizenry and other inhabitamts. Until now there is no debate between righ or left wing economic policies yet, and the idiocy and ineffectiveness still reign by inertia.

P.S. As if answering my contemplations newest cartoon of
Gatis Sluka perfectly discloses mindset of an average Latvian politician and administrator...



[Street sign ] EVEN ROAD
The official: ''It will save us money! We should use such street signs exceptionally''

Election process of the Latvian Prosecutor General and political ripples

This morning majority of Latvian MP's acted like clowns again. Instead of promises given by the heads of all political fractions in Latvian Saeima to vote for the incumbent Prosecutor General Janis Maizitis, this morning with 45 YEA and 47 NAY votes Janis Maizitis was not reelected for his third consecutive term. The present parliament is extremely fractional and 58 MEP's decided to vote with closed bulletins. The major culprit appears to be now the People's Party (PP) and Harmony Centre Party (HC), because differently from Union of Greens and Farmers and Latvian First and Latvian Way Party Union (LFLWU) who's members had free voting regime, PP yesterday promised to support incumbent prosecutor general.

Because the voting took place with closed bulletins it is rather impossible to discover who voted for and who against. It is useless to start investigation here because majority of the present parliament are simply crippled to perform their tasks due to intimate relations with their God-fathers... . The corrupt deals of God-fathers was supposed to untangle the same Prosecutor General who was not reelected this morning... .

According to Latvian Constitution it is the Head of the Supreme Court Mr Bickovics who nominates the name of the Prosecutor General. Mr Bickovics has not made official statements so far, but Mr Maizitis announced that he would be ready to continue his third consecutive term if he would be nominated and parliament would vote differently this time... .

Changes of election law and riddance of ill famous ''election locomotives'' that allowed about half of totally incompetent incumbent MP's to be dragged into parliament and the economic crisis has transformed the traditional political networks. It makes the political system sickly now, and it is clear that without certain further innovations in election law and the founding principles of internal revenue service Latvian democracy is insustainable. Creation of new political unions were first symptoms about remake of the Latvian political system. Today's voting officially ringed the electoral campaign in and it is essential now not only to have a new and competent prosecutor general, but also to have the stipulations in party financing law and finally pass the mandatory tax and property declaration, which is a way tooo long overdue!

The Southern Bridge follow up

While reviewing most used keywords in my blog I discovered (what a surprize:) that my blog is mostly visited in order to learn about the incerdibly expensive bridge in Riga. While the Latvian State Audit Office and Mme Sudraba have appeared powerless sofar, perhaps Duncan Wood's article (Thank You Duncan!) would help to refocus Latvian prosecutors attention to real culprits of this legal and political conundrum?

Today it was announced that the building of the bridge could be terminated indefinetly. And all this regardless of the protests of the inhabitants of the nearby areas who had to learn that promises the politicians gave them would not be fulfilled.

Lets see how this Latvian conundrum would be untangled, and I only hope that this corruption case would remind Latvian electors in forthcoming elections who made decision prior the Southern Bridge was started to be built! Also I expect that politicians would not use the bridge as populist campaign slogan. There are enough issues to be disucussed and SOLVED prior October 2, 2010 elections and the comprehensive remuneration system for civil servants is one of them. The latter system of remuneration was reported by the incumbent parliament as a done deal, thus the government could report to the IMF and EU financial donors that Latvian partners have fulfilled their task. However, increasing number of Neo reports continuously remind us that in terms of orderly public finances, as much the comprehensive Latvian public service remuneration system is concerned, anarchy still ruled supreme until the very end of 2009. In addition also informative article about astounding liabilities of top notch Latvian holders of public office makes one wonder, how those politicains with their official and relatively meagre salaries plan to repay their creditors in open and transparent manner?

Unfortunately, Latvian prosecutors office cannot work at full force, because Mr Maizitis must wait until the end of the month when Latvian MP's would decide whether incumbent prosecutor general would continue in his post. Lets see what else investigative journalists would find out, and then we could also see the playground of election campaign more clearly, because until now it is simply too muddled.

P.S. Here is the link to my latest the Baltic Times article

Do Latvian people really appreciate what they get? (updated)

The EU directorate of economic and financial affairs (ECOFIN) just announced, that the disbursement of EUR 0,5 billion was executed today. This disbursement of money was another part of community assistance within framework of the 7,5 billion loan that should save Latvia from insolvency. Latvian virtual bankruptcy was very much precipitated by reckless and amateurish policies of the right from centre governing coalition (People' s Party, First and Latvian Way Party Union, Union of Greens and Farmers, and Fatherland Party). The present Cabinet of Valdis Dombrovskis is the fifteenth since the Supreme Council of Latvia announced that sovereignty is reestablished within territory of the Republic of Latvia, and it is already more than five years since Latvia is a proud member of the EU. The number of disenchanted voters distrusting major institutions of government is constantly increasing in Latvia. Even more interestingly, the number of folks distrusting the EU is on the rise for last two years. Disenchantment with the governing clique is just one part of the story, but also the increase of poverty and general apathy of the electorate is gradually making Latvian Europeanization unruly. Shame on you AAA team! It is sad that the electorate (40-45% of undecided voters prior elections) has followed these false prophets thus easily so far...




Updated

And as if it is not enough Latvian ill famous AAA team has been open and active today. First, somewhat emulating FDR and his "new deal" the former PM and founder of People"s Party (PP) reached out to the rest of the society looking for social reconciliation. I should not mention all the mess his PP created throughout years (since its foundations in 1996), and Latvian public reflects its opinion about the past deeds not letting the popularity of PP to climb above the threshold needed for entering the parliament for more than two years now. The former PM finally has outlined the program for economic recovery that was long awaited, and one should only skim through the 64 slides of it to understand that there is little substance in there. And as if this would not be enough the former PM proved, that the meeting of the AAA team took place today in Riga. Are those amendments of the election law or the depth of economic contraction that made the AAA team gangsta members to coordinate their acts thus openly and hurriedly these days?

P.S. And here is my article for today's "Postimees"

Approaching elections and tectonic shifts in Latvia

Prior last parliamentary elections the Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF) political union added the pocket party ''For Latvia and Ventspils'' into its fold. Major reason for such a move was the fact that the major financier of both parties is the Major of Ventspils. Such move initiated a trend of consolidation among existing political parties in Latvia. The next one to follow was the political union between the Latvian First and Latvian Way parties (LFLWP). The LFLWP in its party congress in August 2007 merged as one party to avoid possible legal consequences concerning breach of the political party campaign limits in the election law.

The Harmony Centre (HC) political union was gradually expanding its membership since last parliamentary elections. Number of smaller left to the centre parties (Social Democrats and Daugavpils City Party) have joined the major left to the centre political union so far, and HC is comfortably leading polls for a year already.

As if responding to the minuscule support that Latvian electorate has shown to the fractional political parties also Latvian Europeanized political parties have discussed possible merger into political union for a half of a year already. The Civic Union split from the New Era party in early 2008. The gradually shifting political landscape made them to reconsider the move and since Summer 2009 Prime Minister's New Era, Civic Union and Society for Different Politics have held political consultations about principles of possible merger into political union. The consultations were fruitful and on March 6 the political union ''Unity'' would be founded in Riga.

Half a month ago there were only speculations about possible political union between the People's Party and LFLWP. This morning the Minister of Regional Affairs in the LNT 900 sekundes TV program did not exclude the possibility of creating a Latvian First People's Party political union because according to Minister Zalans demand for such a union exists particularly in Latvian regions.

The elections campaign is starting in earnest, and while expecting the follow up of the ''Unity'' congress (which other political parties joining them?) I am wondering whether the proposed Latvian First People's Party political union is not another way of avoiding paying due fines into state treasury? After all, the LFLWP already created precedent of not paying about 500 000 lats into state treasury and People's Party is due to pay about LVL 1mlj. Latvian State Prosecutors should not let those two gravest examples of legal nihilism to go unattended. The principle of legal succession should still work in Latvia, does it?

New polling trends in Latvia?

After rather lengthy period decided to drop some line in this blog. Reasons for my absence from this medium is my primary duty - my dissertation research. The latter proceeds accordingly and as soon I am done with the first draft I would be back & writing in this blog.

The reason for my decision to drop the line today are the latest results of the ''Latvijas Fakti(LF)'' polling firm. Already month ago the LF results were showing shifts in trend that started in the Latvian political realm since March 2007. Since March 2007, when the former president Vaira Vike Freiberga vetoed the law on security organizations and the Major of Ventspils was incarcerated, the disappearance of credibility for governing authority started to prevail in Latvian political realm. Very much due to constellation of political forces and inexperience of nascent civil society the president did not manage calling for early elections, and it only enforced the prevailing trend.

I have had quite a few colleagues who have pointed out to the fact that LF information sometimes lacks trustworthiness. I basically agree with such comments and while working with the Eurobarometer 2004-2009 biannual reports I also notices general sloppiness of LV reports in comparison with Lithuanian or Estonian ones. It is another discussion why was it so, and who are major culprits for LV Eurobarometer reports being inconsistent, but now back to the LF latest report.

The latest LF report shows continuous trend of growing support for the russophone Harmony Center party (18.5%), but the report specifically focuses on the increase of support (9.1%) for the Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF). Basic argument here is that UGF has been opposing the administrative reform of Latvian regional governments, and probably there is some grain of truth here. I am more interested on the change of prevailing trend however. And the trend of decline for almost all domestic governing institutions (government, parliament, political parties, court system) is vividly exposed in Eurobarometer 2001-2009 reports. The DnB Barometer trend also reports the decline of governing authority and embedded pessimism among the Latvian demos. But here is my figure which I updated this morning. Basically and using the LF publicly available data I have distinguished between three underlying ''forces'' in the Latvian party politics. I added the support for the governing coalition parties, the opposition parties are put together with other parties who have no representation in the parliament, and I have added also the number of undecided and alienated voters as entity of their own.

The latest two (January and February) LF reports show a positive shift in an overwhelmingly negative worldview of the Latvian public. Edward Lucas in his latest Economist article also argues about ''green shoots'' of the Latvian statecraft. Probably Latvia has hit the bottom of economic decline and the situation has initially stabilized. The Eurobarometer shows that Estonia in almost all measurements have reached the EU mean average level, and while Latvia and Lithuania are lagging behind. It somehow reminded also the speech of Vjaceslavs Dombrovskis during the Riga 2009 Conference. In his speech he drew analogies between the simultaneous group of countries of East Asia and the Baltic States (3B), while specifically pointing out that while Estonian development could turn out like South Korean one for the two Southernmost Baltic states the lot of Philippines could fall out... .

For the sake of argument I have also added some latest graphs from Eurobarometer. It is hard to predict whether the stabilization in Latvia would hold for long, because it very much depends on the present government to deliver balanced policies. However, if one analyzes the latest data on predictions about employment opportunities in their nation state, then it is possible to discover that while Estonians look optimistically forward and Lithuanians are increasingly pessimists, those are Latvians who have ''stabilized'' their formerly negative predictions.

Furthermore, the ability of government to deliver consensual and balanced policies very much depends on the ability of Latvian democratic forces to present viable economic development program that would help Latvia to climb itself out from the present pit of mismanagement. The ability of democratic forces to find consensus under the label ''Unity'' is promising and the political union would hold its founding congress in Riga on March 6, 2010. Lets wait for the congress and see whether the present stabilization would be cemented, and how the policies for reversal of deindustrialization would be laid out.

P.S. Here is the link to my latest piece in the Baltic Times (TBT).

P.P.S. For the sake of records here is the January TBT article, my latest ''Postimees'' article, and the December TBT article.