Saturday, July 19, 2008

The first poll about voters intentions prior the August 2, 2008 referendum in Latvia

LETA just published "Latvijas Fakti" data after the first polling of people's intentions prior the constitutional referendum on August 2, 2008. If more than 751 200 Latvian electors would say AYE in this plebiscite, it would approve amendments in articles 78. and 79. of the Latvian Constitution. Those amendments would enable not just the president (Art. 48), but uniquely also the 1/10 of electors to initiate the procedure of dissolving the parliament.

LETA did not reveal the sample of poll used, nevertheless the basic data is:

38, 3% have said that they will definitely go to voting station, 33% said that they probably would go to referendum, 9, 2% would definitely not go, 16% said that they would rather not go, and only 3,4% of respondents did not know the answer. The picture looks rather good, and my earlier assumptions about the expectedly high number (67-71%) of participation in constitutional referendums seems to be correct after all.

While asked about their voting intentions then 85,4% of all respondeds would vote AYE, 7,3% would vote NAY, and 7,3% had no idea.
There were only slight (0,5% margin) differences in their voting intentions when asked male, female, Latvian language and Russian language respondents, and the only noticable differece was women's intention to go to referendum was 4% smaller than male 71% one.

When different education level was taken as the basis then responses started to differ. 43,5 % of respondents with basic and secondary education said they would go to referendum., 13% said that they would rather go, 17,4% said that they would rather not go, and 21,7% said that they would definitely not go, and finally 4,3 % did not know the answer. Out of respondents with basic and secondary education 91,3% would vote AYE, 4,3% would vote NAY, and 4,3% did not know the answer.

42,7% of respondents with higher education answered that they would definitely go, 36% said that they would rather go, 13,3% would rather not go, 5,3% would not go, and 2,7% did not know the answer. Out of respondents with higher education 84% would vote AYE, 8% would vote NAY and 8% did not know the answer.

42,9% of Riga citizens answered that they would take part, 28,6% aid that they would rather take part, 17,5% said that they would rather not take the part, 6,3% would not take part, and 4,8% did not know the answer. 84,1% of respondents would vote AYE, 6,3% would vote NAY, and 9,5% did not know the answer.

In Livonia (Vidzeme) 36,2% answered that would go to referendum, 38,3% would rather go, 6,4% would rather not go, 17% would not go, and 2,1% did not know the answer. 85,1% of Vidzeme folks would vote AYE, 12,8% would vote NAY, and 2,1% did not know the answer.

In Courland (Kurzeme) 53,6% answered that would go to referendum, 17,9 % would rather go, 21,4 % would rather not go, 3,6% would not go, and 3,6% did not know the answer. 78,6% of Courlanders would vote AYE, 3,6 % would vote NAY, and 17,9 % did not know the answer.

In Semigallen(Zemgale) 37,9% answered that would go to referendum, 24,1% would rather go, 24,1% would rather not go, 13,8% would not go. 82,8% of Semigallians folks would vote AYE, 10,3% would vote NAY, and 6,9% did not know the answer.

In Latgale 23,1% answered that would go to referendum, 51,3% would rather go, 15,4% would rather not go, 5,1% would not go, and 5,1% did not know the answer. 94,9% of Latgalians would vote AYE, 2,6% would vote NAY, and 2,6% did not know the answer.

In the age group between 18-24 year olds 27,6% answered that would go to referendum, 34,6% would rather go, 27,6% would rather not go, 10,3% would not go. 86,2% of "youngsters" would vote AYE, 10,3% would vote NAY, and 3,4% did not know the answer.

In the age group between 25-39 year olds 27,3% answered that would go to referendum, 45,5% would rather go, 18,2% would rather not go, 5,5% would not go, and 3,6 % did not know the answer. 81,8% of prime age representatives would vote AYE, 9,1% would vote NAY, and 9,1% did not know the answer.

In the age group between 40-54 year olds 34% answered that would go to referendum, 41,5% would rather go, 11,3% would rather not go, 7,5% would not go, and 5,7% did not know the answer. 90.9% of folks in their median age would vote AYE, 3,8% would vote NAY, and 5,7 % did not know the answer.

In the age group between 55- 64 year olds 57,1% answered that would go to referendum, 25% would rather go, 10,7% would rather not go, 7,1% would not go, and 2,1% did not know the answer. 82,1% of pre-pension folks would vote AYE, 7,1% would vote NAY, and 10,7 % did not know the answer.

In the age group of 65 and older folks 53,7 % answered that would go to referendum, 9,8% would rather go, 14,6% would rather not go, 17,1% would not go, and 4,9% did not know the answer. 85,4% of pensioners would vote AYE, 7,3% would vote NAY, and 7,3% did not know the answer.

That's it, and my analysis will be forthcoming next week. Enjoy the weekend!!

P.S. For those Latvians who are interested to tak part in referendum you may find information while clicking on the picture below:

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