Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Prior the August 2 referendum

It is the last 2008 spring plenary session of the Saeima tomorrow, where 2008 budget amendments in the final reading will be most probably passed. Also, and most importantly, members of parliament will discuss the already ill famous bill on prevention on money laundering and anti terrorism financing.

In the meantime another idea gave me Beat Müller who has created an excellent website about direct democracy (in German).

There were five referendums since Latvia regained independence in 1991. The mean participation rate of Latvian electors in those five referendums is 37,99%. The latter number appears rather low, but the reason is that both consultative and constitutional referendum participation rates were taken together in order to get the average rate of participation in referendums since 1991.

However, if we take constitutional referendums about independence in 1991 (87,56%), the ominous amendments in citizenship law in 1998 (69,16%), and finally the plebiscite question about Latvia joining the EU in 2003 (73, 12%) then the mean participation rate of Latvian electors in constitutional referendums since 1991 is 76,61%.

The August 2 referendum is constitutional one. Shall see whether the globalization challenges and inability of Latvian present political elite to manage economic distress have alienated electors even further, or made them wake up from the "A. Kalvītis promised dreamworld of seven fat years"? The Cappuchino revolution made a wake up call, and the society is slowly waking up, however I am afraid that the speed of waking up is too slow to reach the mean number of Latvian electors participating in constitutional referendums since 1991 = circa 1 164 240 (out of 1 512 000).

P.S. Two days ago I wrote a blog entry for Diena for those of you reading in Latvian, and those of you reading in Estonian here is my article in today's Postimees.

6 comments:

Sestdienis said...

Referenduma dalībnieku skaits būs lielāks nekā pirms gada (7.jūlijā), jo piedalīšanās jēga ir daudz saprotamāka, tautas neapmierinātība ar inflāciju un valdības un Saeimas darbību kopumā ir pieaugusi. Taču neticu, ka vajadzīgo balsu skaitu izdosies savākt. Ir vasara, abi referendumi (2. un 23.augusta) notiek atšķirīgās dienās. Ekonomiskā krīze arī vēl tā pa īstam nav jūtama, tāpēc šoreiz valdība, visticamāk, nosacīti tiks sveikā cauri. Es gan domāju, ka arī pusmiljons cilvēku pie urnām 2.augustā būtu panākums. Jācer, ka Valsts prezidents vai pat Saeima vismaz nopietni uztvertu tādu brīdinājuma signālu.

Baltic said...

Ja mēs skatamies parl.vēlēšanās un konstitucionālajos referendumos piedalījušos skaitu, tad mans provizoriskais vērtējums ir starp 550 - 600 tūkstošiem (vasaras iespaids). Šis skaitlis ir sasniedzams ar labas vēlēšanu kampaņas palīdzību, un ja PRO-REF partiju kampaņas nostrādā brīnumus (ko tās dažkārt dara (TP un LC/LPP klipi un rezultāts pēdējās velēšanās), tad nebrīnītos, ka rezultāts aizvilktu arī līdz 700 000.

Uz VZ un 99 galvām cerēt ir tāpatās kā uzticēties padomju sistēmas godīgumam. VZ referendums ir PR pasākums, un 99. galvām pajoliņu teātris priekš izredzētajiem:)

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