Monday, December 15, 2008

Program for getting Latvia out of the economic malaise

The program for getting the Latvian state out of the crisis was published last weekend. The short document deals only with minor changes in fiscal policy and strengthening of the regulatory oversight, and only half a page or ten points of it is devoted to the policy proposals for reinvigorating the stalled economy. The tax on capital earning is planned for 2010 only, and the quadrupling of VAT from 5 to 21% would detrimentally affect hotel and publishing industries. Pēteris Cedriņš in his blog revealingly argues about the "Latvian yoke" that could even extinguish the Latvian language publishing as an industry.

With present odious leaders there is no chance that such a program could be effectively implemented. In addition to that, if this is the "serious program" that makes Swedish Finance Minister to trust the Latvian government in its present task to secure billions from the Western governments and financial institutions, then I could easily call myself a pope... . In reality government's position paper on securing billions still does not answer two basic questions - how much they plan to borrow, and how earmarked these money transfusions will be? One may ask what alternatives I see here? An answer is simple - snap elections and bipartisan approach that should follow in order to lead the country out from the present economic malaise! Latvian president has the power to initiate sacking of the parliament but he has not made up his mind yet, while support for the Latvian government and parliament has irreversibly sunk under 10% margin.

In order to put the problems of present economic crisis in a nutshell decided to use the same format as I used already in my previous blog entry. This time to go through the chronology of events I used some poignant Gatis Šļūka cartoons from Delfi, and translated them.

Text in Latvian: The US crisis [Kalvītis: We should expect seven fat years!]

Text in Latvian: Budget [Probably I would have to cut a piece again in the middle of Winter]


Text in Latvian: Shriek about budget

Text in Latvian: Latvian state [Back seated Transport Supremo - full speed forward! Goodman - safety cushion was too fragile after all...]



Text in Latvian: Goodman - thus, while we discuss the cooling economy...; Cabinet member - we invited also couple of experts!


Text in Latvian: Latvian economy [Goodman with the Court Jester Slakteris - What now? To cool or heat it up?]

P.S. For those of you who read Estonian here is a piece I wrote for Postimees today.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Pilsoņa novērojams par nesenajiem ekonomikas procesiem:

1. Strādā pa 700LVL mēnesī
2. Maksā nodokļus pats un darba devējs (<30%) no algas
3. Nodokļi dodas uz banku, kā pensiju fondi, kurus banka pārvalda jeb investē
4. Bankas naudu investē un aizdod
5. Nauda tiek investēta uzņēmumu akcijās, kā arī dota kredītos, bet
5.1.Investīciju objektu vērtība krītas (tiek skaidrota ar pārvērtēšanu, bet bankas to akcijas pirka, kad to cenas atbilda tirgus cenām nevis reālajām cenām)
5.2.daļa no kredītiem tiek izniekti neapdomīgi un netiek atgūtī
6. Bankas zaudē naudu līdz ar to banku vērtība krītas: banku akciju turētāji un klienti vēlas izņemt naudu no tām, un tā arī dara
7. Valdība ir spiesta uzpirkt bankas (kas savu naudu ir zaudējušas- daļa ir pazudusi jeb atdota tiem, kas bija turējuši pārvērtētu uzņēmumus; daļu izprotot situāciju ir izņēmuši klienti)
8. Valdība ir spiesta investēt bankā, lai iedzīvotāji pilnīgi nezaudētu savu naudu: noguldījumus un pensiju fondus
9.Latvijas gadījumā slodzi uz budžetu uzliek ne vien aprakstītās piespiedu investīcijas, bet arī reālās industrijas un eksporta neesamība. Līdzišinējais kapitāls, kas nesa budžetam nodokļus bija ārvalstu importētie līdzekļi, kā arī uz tiem balstītie finansu starpniecības, kretitēšanas utt. pakalpojumi. Šobrīd šie līdzekļi nav, jo līdzīgi kā aprakstītā vietējā banka arī ārvalstu investori bija par saviem līdzekļiem iegādājušies pārvērtētas akcijas un devuši neapdomīgus kredītu.Un nav arīī visa uz ārvalstu naudas balstītā strktūra, kas Latvijas gadījumā veidoja līdz 70% GDP.
10. Valstij ir problēmas- vajag naudu.. gan lai glābtu nacionālus finanšu uzņēmumus, gan irstošo ekonomiku
11.Latvijas valdības stratēģija budžeta līdzekļu iegūšanai:
11.1. samazināt budžeta izdevumus (tiesa, matemātiski un nekvalitatīvi, par ko liecina 8 lpp plāns)
11.2.samazināt sociālo nodokli uz 21%, bet palielināt PVN (manā gadījumā kopējais nodokļu slogs pieaug, jo esmu vidusmēra pilsonis ar īpašumu un auto+ man ir ģimene- līdz ar to 25% soc. nodoklis man bija lētāk nekā visaptverošs PVN pieaugums)

_______________________________________

Rezumējot:
Latvijas GDP un valsts ekonomika, kā arī tās uzplaukums ir bijusi neeksistējoša vīzija. Daļa ekonomikas nav, jo ir balstīta uz kredītos izsniegtu ārvalstu kapitālu, daļa ir finansu starpniecība, daļa ir zaudēta un atdota kādam, kas bija pārvērtētu uzņēmumu īpašnieki, pirms to cena dramatiski kritās.

Šīs ir kļūdas ko pieļāva valsts pārvalde, kā arī pilsoņi, kas nesekoja līdzi tam ko darija to ievēlētie tautas kalpi.
___________________________________________

Es domāju, ka nav godīgi man un manai ģimenei likt par šīm kļūdām maksāt, jo nevis mēs esam naudu iedevuši kādam, kura vērtība ir neadekvāta vai kurš to nevar atgriest, bet gan noteikti par finansēm atpildīgi cilvēki.

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