Only tanks could help us to get out from this swamp...(Doctor Valdis Zatlers)

Source: IR

Lack of consistent policies after September 17 elections

After the September 17 snap elections the electorate is literally boiling in Latvia. The major reason for Valdis Zatlers to sack the parliament and to form his own party was the questıon of rule of law and elimination of LV oligarchy (particularly pay attention to the second & third paragraph!). Ever since the perplexing announcement last Friday night the Latvian electorate has been split in two. The reason for the split of the public opinion is not only the outdated perception of the Latvian electorate to see the politics to be divided between ethnically defined parties (which was catered by the political parties in power for the last 20 years), but also the sudden change of the list of major tasks right after the elections.

Change of the discourse after elections happens to minimum degree in many consolidated democracies. In case of Valdis Zatlers the discourse turnaround has been complete, because he pronounced the reforms of the outdated higher education system, tax code and governance modes as well as the fight against the oligarchs even on the election billboards ( see below). Since last Saturday it is barely possible to hear about reforms and ending of the IMF&EU financial aid mission or the 2012 budget, because Valdis Zatlers change of tack has enabled him to court openly with the representatives of the same party he was supposedly to stand against. It has disoriented groups of voters, and the result of such disorientation is clear, because less than month after elections 1/3 of those questioned would not vote for the party they voted barely three weeks ago, again... .

It is certain coul de sac situation now and lets hope that Valdis Dombrovksis could help the former president out from the corner he has painted himself, and return either to the status quo ante, or move into the direction of all inclusive rainbow coalition government:) It was just announced that the rainbow coalition talks have failed, thus there should be return to status quo ante... Bringing in the Harmony Center party into coalition negotiations is welcome only after ZRP and Unity have agreed on reform package and formed the nucleus of the governing coalition. After solving disagreements about certain misunderstandings in the package deal it is possible to move on with the third partner. The president has announced the deadline, and lets hope that the common sense will win and lead the Latvian electorate out of these dire straits! Hopefully the ZRP and Unity would move on and find the most qualified third partner to finish thus needed political and economic reforms before the looming world economic crisis hits hard in early 2012.

WHO WILL WIN IN THE 11TH SAEIMA ELECTIONS?





AGAINST THE OLIGARCHS:


FOR CLEAN POLITICS FREE FROM PRESSURE GROUPS





TOGETHER WITH OLIGARCHS:


51 VOTE TOGETHER WITH UNION OF GREENS AND FARMERS AND FOR GOOD LATVIA IN 10TH SAEIMA (But with the Janis Urbanovitch (Harmony Center) on the background of the billboard)

Volatility of the Latvian political system (UPDATED)

2011 snap elections are over and my first try to get elected into the parliament was not successful. The coalition negotiations are ongoing and tough and I will elaborate on the results of previously mentioned processes more in my next blog entries. This time I am republishing a chart which clearly outlines volatility of the Latvian party political system, because every elections since regaining the independence in 1991 undecided swing voters have been migrating to the new party:)


Source: Dienas Bizness

P.S. Here are my first and second takes about LV politics in Estonian.
P.P.S. And here is my week old piece for Maaleht (in Estonian)

UPDATED

Here is the composition of the 11th Saeima before the new cabinet is in place, which means that 13 ministers most probably would be replaced with the MP's with a soft mandate.

Would they understand it? (UPDATED)

Emergency elections are approaching and my campaign intensity is increasing. The last two weeks will be hopefully less hectic due to the planned strategy of pinpointing the electioneering areas. After 17.09.2011 coalition government will be formed, and I am wondering whether average Latvian voters have comprehended consequences of the possible union between the Harmony Center and UGF party and stalling of economic reforms?


Source: IR

UPDATED

Wikileaks has provided very interesting leaks about events worldwide and Latvia has not been an exception. Those who want to understand how the Parex affair was built read this. And thanks to Nellija Ločmele there is ample of information about the formative events in Latvia from 2007 - 2009 here and here.

Pollsters prior 17.09.2011

Here you have "Latvijas fakti" pollster showing the latest trends. Pollsters are tricky business, because different polling firms in Latvia do show different results. I have sticked to "Latvijas Fakti" and SKDS, because they are traditional and they do show certain trends. The most obvious one is the number of undecided or swing voters and as you can see the number has declined from 35% down to 31.3%. However, there is still some way to go and the most successful of the contenders will get the biggest chunk of those 20.7% voters who simply do not know whom they are going to vote for. Also, except the insignificant pocket parties four of the most realistic contenders for getting into the Saeima - Unity, Harmony Center, Union of Greens and Farmers, and National Alliance - are showing the trend of growth. The Zatlers Reform Party support has slightly declined due to the questionable emulation of the tradition of showing who the prime ministerial candidate will be. Lets see the polls next week to grasp the dynamics of election campaign in the simultaneously transforming Latvian party political system.

After the Latvian July 23 referendum...

The formative referendum dismissed the 10th Saeima, and the first ever emergency elections in Latvia will be held in September 17, 2011.

The time to prepare for elections is short and thus most political parties go with their old or slightly upgraded programs. Because among the Latvian populace most of the democratic institutions are dismissingly unpopular, and parliament being among them, thus many new faces have appeared on the party lists. And to make the situation even more intriguing also there is a new kid on the block, who shall try to squeeze into the Latvian party political spectrum.

Until now it is hard to predict the exact outcome of the Latvian elections, because the Latvian party political system has returned to the square one, and since the budgetary funding for the political parties will start only from 01.01.2012, we could finally start to project operations and what kind of system will be formed out from the ethnically divided and scarsely populated Latvian parties.

Because of the emergency character of those formative elections I have decided to run for the Saeima myself. This would make me to change my usual schedule and I have already started to participate in the month long election campaign sprint.




Other than that, my hunch is that the center right Unity, the center left Harmony Center (HC), the liberal Zatlers Reform (ZRP) party, the Union of Greens and Farmers as well as the conservative National Union party would get elected into the parliament. I am not sure about chances of the For Human Rights in United Latvia party as well as about the desperate maverick trying to do anything to get elected. Nevertheless, the fact is that until now about a third of electors are undecided and thus the campaign month (or better say the sprint!) will determine whether Latvian voters shall opt for the European of post-Soviet path of development. The European path would be defined by voters trusting the results of hard won reforms of the Valdis Dombrovskis government and allowing to form coalition with either the ZRP or the HC party. The opposite and hopefully non materializing path would foresee the populist politicans engineering an ethnically deterministic vote for the benefit of ''populous anarchy a'la lettica'', and thus opening Ms Latvia for uncharted waters...again:)

P.S. My latest piece in Ukrainian ''Tyzhden'' (in Ukrainian)

Formative referendum on July 23, 2011 (updated)

My usual weekend calm was interrupted by the Norwegian tragedy and flying down South to the shores of Bosphorus. Since my arrival to Turkey the Latvian Central Election commission has already sealed the official results and announced that the emergency elections would take place in September 17, 2011.

The July 23, 2011 referendum in Latvia finished the procedure of dissolution of the parliament started by the former president Valdis Zatlers with his ominous May 28 Decree No. 2. The legal pretext for dissolution of the parliament served the decision of HC party together with oligarchic Union of Greens and Farmers not to lift parliamentary immunity of an another oligarch and MP Ainars Slesers when the Corruption Prevention Bureau asked with the Riga District Court permission to search premises of ominous politician. Reasons for sacking the parliament since Latvia joined the EU have been ample however. Cynical misuse of power reached the equinox, however, in the October 2006 parliamentary elections. Those elections were plagued by misuse of illegal financing and the Supreme Court of Latvia in its November 3, 2006 verdict was slightly shy from proclaiming the 2006 elections null and void. Thus, the heavy weight of oligarchic parties misusing funds and poisoning the Latvian political culture fostered the embedded culture of alienation which has estranged Latvian voters from democratic institutions of governance. Thus, the July 23, 2011 referendum results with 44% of eligible voter’s participation rate and 95% agreeing to dissolve the parliament was not unexpected.
The sheer number who voted YEA was surprising, however, because 65% of them voted for the incumbent parliament less than a year ago in parliamentary elections. Latvian political commentators have been analyzing reasons behind such distrust of citizen’s vis-à-vis their own republic, and also why the smallest number of participants in plebiscitary voting came from Riga and Latgale electoral districts. The reasons for distrust lead us back to the early 1990’s when Latvia together with other Baltic republics regained its independence. Estonia and Lithuania had a new constitutional caucus, election law and subsequent upgrading of laws concerning public finance and governance issues. Latvian legislators rolled over the constitution of 1922 and has remained the only EU member state which neither has the mandatory tax and property declarations system nor it funds political parties with Malta from the state budget. Reasons for voters in Riga and Latgale being relatively inactive (38 and 34 % participation respectively) are twofold. First, the stagnated political culture has been embedded due to the existing oligarchic parties which have openly discouraged active civic participation during referendums last five years. Second, the majority of Riga and Latgale electoral district voters voted for the mainly russophone Harmony Center (HC) party. The latter governs Riga and most of Latgale municipalities but during the last twenty years they have metamorphosed from ethnic into social democratic party and have sat in opposition all those years.
The referendum set a unique precedent while empowering the somewhat dormant Latvian civil society. The amendment in the election law stipulates that political parties will be funded from the state budget as of January 1, 2012, and many other legal innovations since the May 28, 2011 presidential decree No. 2 have strengthened the rule of law in Latvia. The only concern is the fact that in terms of party political development Latvia has returned to square one or at the point where it started in the early 1990’s. The Latvian party political system was poisoned by the ethnically determined division in right wing Latvian and left wing Russian speaking political parties. Since last elections the trend is for parties to determine its policies on social and economic issues. Thus, while the consolidation of political parties took place the political unions were not so much based on pragmatic ideologically similar platform. Thus, we may witness the plethora of new political parties being formed and some older political parties trying to merge now on the identical ideological foundations.
Such process is welcome but just two months prior emergency elections it is hard to predict how qualitative the newly formed parties will be and how well they will be able to expose the ‘’hoppers’’ from the formerly oligarchic parties. Thus, former president Zatlers Reform Party has announced itself as liberal force and thus will have to compete with catch all mechanisms for the same voter as the Unity political bloc which should merge its three constitutive parts into the right to the center political party on August 6. It is positive that there are now distinct liberal, conservative and centrist parties, but what Latvian body politics is really missing is the social democratic or progressive political force. Thus, this open niche is filled by the HC party which uses populist slogans but has not established efficient relations with the trade unions.
Therefore, while stable and leading position of HC in polls continues probably the 35-40% of undecided or swing voters will determine the election outcome. Also, I must remind here that HC party has been leadind the polls both BY Latvıjas Fakti and SKDS firms for the last three years, but they became second during last year's parliamentary elections. The latest polls showed significant decrease of support from the HS, Unity, Nationalist Bloc and Union of Greens and Farmers. The Zatlers Reform Party (ZRP) has very good starting positions but the hard labor of creating party base and little monies for the campaign will probably determine their abılıties to hold a successful campaign.



IR

Initially the ethnically defined National bloc and HC are gaining strength from the dissolution of the parliament. Successful outcome of September 17 elections will be determined by the ability of the successful political parties to create jobs, decrease unemployment and embed the rule of law however. Neither of ethnically defined parties have been able to seriously compete on those issues so far. Therefore, the major contenders for the formation of government coalition will be the governing Unity, ZRP and HC parties, while National Bloc, Union of Greens and Farmers and maybe First and Latvian Way party union would have to compete among themselves for passing the required 5% threshold for entering into the parliament.

p.s. My previous statements from the interview in ERR were actually uttered while thinking that ceteris paribus nothing will change prior elections, but since May 28, 2011 Latvia has become ''richer'' with 3 new parties, and 2 former electoral unions merging into 2 distinct parties

p.p.s. Here are my latest articles for those reading in Latvian, and Ukrainian

Basketball and elections in the Baltics 2011

Even though Latvia prepares for the hot electioneering after the July 23 referendum about the dispersal of the Saeima there is ordinary life still going on. In addition there are also elections in Estonia this summer, when the new president should be elected in the Riigikogu. The decision of Indrek Tarand (MEP) to become a contender along Toomas Hendrik Ilves in August 27, 2011 presidential elections has added spice to the usually calm Estonian political climate. While the Estonian politicians debate the historic legacy of the incumbent president one may predict that probably some of the discussions would focus on pros and cons of the popularly elected vs. parliamentary elected head of state problematique.

Latvian incumbent president Valdis Zatlers would probably try to continue overhauling the Latvian oligarchy. After his ominous Decree No. 2 in May 28. 2011 there are some very significant changes taking place in the Latvian parliament already. After wrangling for two years the head of the KNAB was finally popped with 82 YEA votes and only two MP's abstained. Also the parliament in its last session prior the summer recess lowered the limits for the election campaign financing by half, opened the way for MP's to be prosecuted if the Prosecutors office or Supreme Court decides so. The amendments in the Commercial Act would finally allow judicial branch to learn the beneficiaries of the offshore companies in Latvia. And last but not least the the head of the Constitutional Court officially announced that the ill qualified member of the Constitutional Court Vineta Muižniece probably has no way of return to work at the Supreme Court. The previously mentioned member of the court was suspended from her duties, because she is facing criminal proceedings for fraud while being the head of the Legal Committee of the Parliament.

Political process is slowly euroepanized in Latvia but parliamentary elections would probably bring only scanty changes. If one thinks about the long term sustainability of the Latvian democracy then the public initiatives, which started after famous "funerals of oligarchs", could probably ensure embededness of civic participation in Latvia. Estonia would further develop en route of becoming another boring Nordic state, and the summer would be spent in vacationing mood. It would actually be a perfect moment for many tourists who would be coming to Lithuania for the Eurobasket 2011, or allowing the basketball to be played in country where the game could be equated with religion. Also many Latvian fans are grateful to the Eurobasket 2011 organizers, because the Latvian men's squad would be playing its preliminary round in Siauliai, the town situated almost on the Latvian border.

While there is dim hope for Latvian men's team reaching beyond the preliminary stage there is little doubt that Mr Kemzura's squad would be willing to show the best Lithuanian krepsinis has to offer. In the meantime Latvian fans are following with keen interest another Eurobasket. While Lithuanian fans can cheer on about a very good performance of their ladies squad Latvian team made headlines only tonight. L'Equipe header tonight: "retour sur terre!" explains it all, because Latvian women's squad managed to work hard and deservedly won the reigning European champions. The midsummer night and biggest festivities of the year are approaching, and on June 23-24 the cities will empty in Latvia and Estonia. In the meantime while Lithuanian ladies will have to play themselves out from the media clout of their male colleagues, it is the Latvian male basketball players who have to find ways around the better playing female colleagues. Enjoy the basketball and smile about the politics in the Baltic States this summer!


Photo: www.fibaeurope.com