In order to make predicitions you need a solid base...

Any science needs measurable quantities or substances in order to get thruthful answers. It is even more true in social sciences and the balanced development of the Western societies has given political scientists ample of time to make certain and solid predictions after the Wortld War II. Conclusions of Ron Ingelhardt, Gabriel Almon or Giovanni Sartori still hold very much to the stability of Western societies, which are gradually changing if we folow what is happening in Belgium, the US, PIGS or Mexico today. Party political systems are changing in all previously mentioned countries except the US due to the FPTP electoral system, but it explains the polarization of opinions prior last four US presidential elections, TEA party phenomenon, and many other new developments in once ''stable'' party political wheeling & dealing systems. Thus, the once easily predictable voter's behaviour is transforming and particularly in peripheral EU countries the party system volatility is increasing.

Latvia, is no exception here and the volatility of the Latvian parties is closer to the homologues in Central or South America, rather than ones in the Central Europe. The endemic corruption and state capture was practiced all those years due to the cleptocratic elites and meek populations, who were not demanding their representatives to be legitimate within the system of rule of law. Thus, the Latvian existing miniscule political parties are being remade now or there are new ones created, when finally very essential legal amendments are on the threshold (the mandatory tax and property declarations system should be introduced by January 1,2012 and ppolitical parties will be funded from the state budget as of the same date).

For the September 17, 2012 elections there will be thirteen party lists competing for the 100 seat parliament. The competition might seem fierce but in reality there are only five considerable contenders for passing the 5% entry threshold - the center right Unity, the center left Harmony Center, liberal Zatlers Reform party, the conservative National Alliance and Union of Greens and Farmers. While the center, right, left or liberal appears in the party programs Latvian parties it is still premature to call them this way, because the Latvian party political system is being remodeled at this very moment. Thus, ideologicaly based discourse is still to develop in Saeima, and for that the incumbent political forces ned legitimacy.

But the legitimacy is the crucial problem because so fgar unaccountability rules and previous oligarchic political parties disoriented voters. That explains why Latvia is so full of contrasts. While the Latvian Saeima was about to be be given way to continue its half baked reforms, the Latvian president literally interrupted the pregnancy just nine month after the 10'th Saeima was sworn in, and about 45% of Latvian voters in referendum decided to abort the stillborn parliament. Now, in the latest pollster one third of populations still proclaims that they do not know whom to vote for in forthcoming elections, and I can understand that. But then today there is a pollster where 77% of questioned believe that qualitative changes in the newly elected Saeima are impossible to expect. Also whilst following the latest Eurobarometer pollster, it becomes clear that Latvian voters do not see the light at the end of the tunnel as their Estonian neighbors for example. To put such a grim Latvian picture in a nutshell, what do you do in such a situation when people do not believe in ability to change smth. in their own environment? My short answer is - empower and educate them! For the more elaborate program and policies there will be a whole month to explain:)

LatVasjuki boastful bluffing continues

Most of Latvian experts and politicians believe that the former transport supremo boastful pronouncements are due to his wish to create informative background for his 2010 parliamentary election campaign. Today his drive to create of the informative background continues - hyperactive Vice Major of Riga believes that Latvian economy is on the verge of collapse [deg zilās ugunīs]. As a solution to the present ills, and absolutely disregarding his own mistaken decisions as a government minister and his morally corrupt behavior [even the Cardinal of the catholic Church Mr Pujāts in his party congress had to remind him about it:)], the maverick plumber alias Lešinskis believes that everyone should rush outside Latvia and search for foreign investors. In his interview he does not specify which country exactly he plans to rush, but it is not needed, because even before he openly declared here and here that Latvia's EU and NATO membership had rid Latvia from its inferiority complex, and now Latvia should openly work with his Russian chums...

Latvian plumber ready to rule "LatVasjuki"?

Latvian former president and her supporters try to network support behind her nomination for the post of the European Council President next week. I honor Madam Freiberga and her team's efforts and would be happily surprised if she would manage to rally thus needed support behind her nomination for the post of the first president of the united Europe, even though I believe that more dynamic person should be needed for this newly created position.

While madam Freiberga continue her networking activities Latvian complacent and provincial politicians continue to play their games. Just in my last entry I used to mention about the zero sum game activities of the ill famous Latvian AAA team. While People's party (PP) "state capturers" are preparing for their congress in November 21, 2009 the junior member of the AAA team managed to bluff big style today.

There was annual congress of the Latvian Way Latvian First Party union (LWLFP), and also the Cardinal of the Roman Catholic Church Mr Pujāts gave his blessing for the bunch on liberoreligious bunch of the LWLFP . The Cardinal rather symbolically pleaded the conservative party folks to "abstain" from morally corrupting activities. In the meantime the former co-chairman of the party was crying foul about his correct strategy of saving Parex, and thus avoiding the Icelandic meltdown of state finances.

As if this would not be enough LETA and Apollo reports that the newly elected LWLFP party chairman and Vice Major of Riga in the party congress openly called the government of Valdis Dombrovskis to step down after the 2010 budget would be passed in the parliament. Bluffing big style is the specialty of the Vice major of Riga and rather ominously he announced that he does not want to to run for the parliament. Now, the politician with his initial surname Lešinskis, who took his wife's "europeanized" last name [Šlesere], joined other two members of the AAA team. Neither the head of the PP state capturers Šķēle nor the sponsor of the Greens and farmers Lembergs want to run for the parliament, because they deem themselves to be omnipotent PM candidates for the upcoming elections.

Latvian minigarch's spin doctors strategy is robust, but unimaginative, and now the youngest member of the AAA team wants to earn his brownies from authoritarian chums outside Latvia as well... . The political game the AAA team retinue plays is exhausting, and I still stick to the idea that this game should be left for the AAA team to immerse into. It is useless to compete with the AAA team whilst playing according to their rules, thus after the party of democratic choice would finish its consolidation it is essential to start to get our volunteers on ground and running on grass roots level as soon as possible. The October 2010 elections should turn out like "to be or not be elections" after all. Latvian civil society should avoid Latvian plumber (translation of Šlosers/Šlesers in Latvian slang) getting too snobbish in his imagined premiership of Latvasjuki, to paraphrase symbolic description of Chess capital from the Ilf & Petrov novel. Lets wait and see how the Latvian Independence Day celebrations would be held, and after them one would be able to notice whether it is mere bluffing or there is also some substance behind the verbal diarrhea of the incumbent Vice Major of Riga.

p.s. Here is access to my monthly TBT column, and the full access to it would be provided next Monday.

Latvian internet media frenzy about the possible fall of the government?

The Latvian Minister of Finance Mr Einārs Repše in the KNL TV show yesterday explained reasons, why did he reprimand the head of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Mr Jakāns to foster structural reforms and sack civil servants with ambiguous credentials. During the TV show and in his media pronouncements today Mr Jakāns acted as if the Minister of Finance would not have been his nominal boss, and the Minister of Finance decided to temporarily sideline him from his duties today.

There have been rumours about oligarchic parties (People's Party, Union of Greens and Farmers and Latvian First and Latvian Way Party Union) engineering possible fall of the government after the 2010 budget would be passed in the parliament. These rumors materialized since the odious former PM is back in Latvian politics. Also rather uniquely the parliament did not appoint the judge Māris Vīgants as the new member of the Supreme Court (its neither caucus of judges nor the president who appoints new judges, because the parliament reigns supreme in Latvia), and several legal experts and pundits argue that the major reason for such unexpected decision was the fact that Mr Vīgants was the judge who ruled in favour of incarcerating odious Latvian minigarch Aivars Lembergs indicted in several charges ranging from corruption cases (proper explanation here should be state capture) to exceeding the power of his public office already back in 2007. The State Prosecutor's office is slowly proceeding with this massive and politically sensitive court case, thus Mr Lembergs was allowed out from the prison the same year and according to the latest information he is under house arrest, that still did not prohibit him from visiting parliament yesterday.

With all these events evolving major Latvian media channels already argue about the possible fall of the government approaching. While using the LETA as primary source, Diena, Tvnet, Apollo and Delfi discuss behind the tent discussions in the Saeima, where the gravest sin of the present government is deemed to be the minister of finance crossing the red line and sidelining a chum of the People's Party folks. The NRA is the only paper that argues the opposite, arguing "that the Minister of Finance found the best possible time to sideline the compromised head of the IRS". Neither the Latvian Radio nor LTV 1 have proven such news, and I am wondering why majority of newspaper and internet media are thus eager to spread the news about an end of the government approaching - is it cheap media frenzy or a part of whipping up the crisis expectations?

Changes brewing in Latvia

Changes are brewing in Latvia that might have implications for the stability of the existing government. Already at the end of the workday the Minister of Finance Einārs Repše announced his suspicions about the head of Latvian Internal Revenue Service (IRS) being politically influenced, which is a local euphemism for an official fallen from grace and about to be sacked. Mr Repše has alarming reports from the Prosecutor General office as well as from the Corruption Prevention Bureau (KNAB). It was a public information for a while now about the financial police members who were convicted for illegal recordings of the journalist Iveta Jaunalksne telephone conversations continuing their work in the IRS. Also it was suspicious that Mr Vladimirs de Vaškevičs after being denied access from to the sensitive state secret information still became the deputy head of the IRS. The life of Mr de Vaškevičs was colourful enough, because he is owner of about hundreds of pairs of shoes (does it not remind you Ms Imelda Marcos:). Also he still continues to share the same house with his divorced wife Madam Vilkaste to save costs... . Never mind a fact, that Ms Vilkaste sold a real estate in the prime spot (Mežaparks) to the IRS for about EUR 5 million that she initially purchased for EUR 250 000, and KNAB is investigating her business practices. Also from my own sources I have heard rumours about Mr Vaškēvics (with a nickname Footballer/Futbols) being integral part of the drugs & arms shipments through the port of Riga.

In a vicarious way the announcements of the Minister of Finance proved long whirling rumours about the Latvian IRS serving the needs of the governing People's Party (PP). PP endorsed the present head of the IRS, and rumours about illegal trade on the Latvian Eastern border were politically hushed down with the help of the PP.

In the evening there was the weekly KNL show where also Minister of Finance and the head of the IRS were present. The dialogue between two officials was turning into a heated debate where the Minister of Finance very diplomatically explained why he cannot trust Mr Jakāns. While the moderator of the TV show asked whether the Minister should not consider simply sacking Mr Jakāns from his post, Mr Repše answered that such a decision is within a purview of the governing coalition.

At the end of the program the KNL moderator rhetorically asked that perhaps it would be a time finally to introduce the mandatory tax and property declaration system, thus the Latvian IRS could finally know what belongs to whom, and who is who in Latvia? Now the Latvian governing coalition has announced that the mandatory tax declaration is to be introduced from January 1, 2010. However, if the promise to introduce the mandatory tax and property declaration system is as baseless as the proposed real estate tax we perhaps would earlier see the disappearance of the Republic of Latvia. You may wonder why such an apocalyptic conclusion?

Because, even though, the governing coalition has reached a compromise on the 0,1% real estate tax after PP gangsters were convinced to support its introduction, the mechanism and administration of the new tax according to the Head of the IRS and senior civil servants is impossible earlier than somewhere at the end of next year....Is the possible sacking of the acting head of the IRS going to serve as the precursor of the fall of the existing government, because the former PM is eagerly waiting his retinue producing the momentum for his virtual coup d' entreprise?

Shaky Latvian government coalition II (updated with A. Šķēle "comeback")

This morning the People's Party (PP) fuelled speculations about the fragility of the existing governing coalition. The Latvian Cabinet met today in emergency session and agreed on previously agreed budget cuts amounting LVL500 mlj. Now the Minister of Finance must present the 2010 budget for the special interest "hacking" in the Lettish Parliament. At the same time rumours have been circling for some time now about the PP, which still has the biggest representation in the parliament, engineering the fall of the government after the 2010 budget being passed in the Saeima. These rumours were partially supported by today's news announcing possible comeback (the fourth one!) of one of the most odious Latvian former prime ministers Andris Šķēle.

The news about the PP board begging Andris Šķēle to be their leader and prime minister candidate are bad enough for the government's stability. As if it would not be enough another "coalition partner" made laughingstock out of themselves today. The Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF), whose PM candidate for the forthcoming elections is no one else but the Maire of Ventspils, announced that UGF would vote against the projected school reform which would have made the Latvian schoolchildren to start the school from age six (it is seven now). What makes the laughingstock out of the UGF is the fact that the author of the reform is the Ministry of Education. The latter ministry is ruled by the UGF ministers since 2004 and also Tatjana Koķe represents the UGF. As if this ludicrous decision to undermine their own minister's work would not be enough also the Latvian Book Publishers Association announced that they would not manage printing books for the young pupils in due time. I do not understand something here, does the minister T. Koķe coordinate policy process with her party? If not, and this is exactly what the UGF announcement shows, why the head of the UDF faction in the parliament does not call for her resignation?

Updated

And while I finished this blog entry Apollo made it official, the former PM is back in politics! Some experts rightfully argued that his comeback is actually contradiction of terms, because he never actually left political string pulling. So Mr Šķēle is elected as the chairman of the PP board and it would make the Latvian political environment more than interesting the coming autumn.

Also the deputy head of the PP parliament faction Vents Armands Krauklis reiterated that PP does not support LVL500 million budget cuts, because ''they (PP) are not ready to sign hasty agreements Latvian government was forced to sign with the Western financial donors'', and the ECOFIN Commissioner is not the God Almighty''. I am watching the 100.pants TV show on LTV1 Channel and Mr Krauklis was presented the question, whether the PP agrees on LVL500 million budget cuts. Mr Krauklis answered, that they agree with the government policy now, but the PP believe that the level of budget cuts must be negotiated with the IMF because those budget cuts are detrimental to the IMF ıtself.

So far the PM Valdis Dombrovskis has not commented on the constantly changing PP position regarding the 2010 budget, just adding that the comeback of A. Skele might affect relations between political parties.

P.S. I could not resist using thus revelatory Gatis Šļūka cartoon again. The story behind the cartoon is the plan of the Military Police coordinated with Saeima officialdom to ensure security of the Lettish parliament building with the 25m security perimeter.

[Latvian MP giving command to another MP] Protesters approaching! Rise the bridge now!

True nature of the Latvian governing coalition

After all the mess what the People's Party together with their coalition buddies (Greens and Farmers, Fatherland Party and Latvian First and Latvian Way Party coalition)have done they do not even have a shame to bring their sickeningly childish games out of Latvia. Just to see the extent of coverage about the PM Valdis Dombrovskis visit to Sweden in today's Swedish press is quite something. But it is not flattering when you have to excuse for or refute sometimes rather harsh statements of the Finance Minister of a neighboring state due to absolutely irresponsible behavior of some government coalition partners.

The People's Party (PP) still has the largest representation in the Latvian literally defunct parliament, but their popularity has for the last half of the year irreversibly sunk under 2% support in the polls. After all the PP is one of the major culprits behind the stalled and continuously postponed structural reforms. Today they are following manners of true gangsters and avoid keeping their promise of introducing the real estate tax, even though they signed the document with the international lenders. There is nothing else to add here and the PP fights for their very survival, but my honest wish is to see the gangsta like PP disappearing from the Latvian political scene the sooner the better.

And here are couple of poignant & appropriate cartoons from Gatis Šļūka.

1. [coalition - orange color of PP and blue color of the New Era party]







MP with the Fatherland Party bag in his hand and piece of PP party wood in his eye pointing to the Lady [New Era party] - you have a splinter in your eye...



I am going to act irrationally if you are going to slash my salary...

Governing coalition and summer negotiations

I returned from the coast of Aegean for a week to do dissertation interviews and participate at the RSU entrance exams. It is summer time in the Baltic States but all the three governments must cope with the economic recession. All three governments must drastically cut government expenses and curb top notch civil servants and politician´s salaries. While Lithuanian and Estonian governments have managed doing painful education, home affairs and civil service sector reforms Latvian government must do those long overdue reforms now all at once. It is a gigantic task and in addition Latvian second biggest Parex bank requires monies for stabilizing its operations.

Travails of Valdis Dombrovskis (Latvian PM) have barely started but the governing coalition members already show their true nature. Instead of fixing problems that the very coalition ``partners`` created during their rule from 2004-2009, the same coalition members are playing traditional ``Latvian political stabbing games`` now. Instead of listening to the Western partners advice (Latvia is a member of the EU and NATO after all) some of the Latvian provincial and boorish politicans want to continue serving their special interests.

The IMF was chosen as a chief negotiator to overhaul Latvian overblown and antiquated public service sector. The statutes of the European Treaty does not allow the European Commission to meddle into the internal affairs of its member states while bypassing the European Council. That was the reason why, even though the biggest creditor of the 7,5 billion euro loan is the European Union, the structural reforms negotiations are steered by the IMF. While the first to tranches of the multi billion loan is already transferred into the Latvian treasury, now two Latvian governing coalition members (Union of Farmers and Greens (UGF), and People´s Party (PP)) are calling the government to pause or even to give up the loan from the IMF in order to avoid harsh conditionality of the IMF and EU requirements.

The situation is serious enough thus the president interrupted his vacation. While the Latvian executive is still working the Latvian lawmaker is in recess till the end of August. And the latter is the biggest cause for insurmountable problems in this tiny parliamentary republic. Also the governor of the Bank of Latvia called the announcements of some of the governing elite members as irresponsible, but its seems that it is not enough. It was announced that tomorrow there would meeting of the coalition council in Riga. Major topic? Future negotiations strategy with the IMF!

While the Ministry of Economics has structurally reformed already and serves as an example for other Latvian ministries to emulate, the rest of Latvian civil service is still in waiting mood, and irresponsible announcements of Augusts Brigmanis (UGF) and Mr Kucinskis (PP) are only prolonging the irresponsible stalemate. When the Dombrovskis took the reins of the government then it was announced that by May 15, 2009 Latvian civil service would have a comprehensive public service remuneration system, but civil servants at the ministry of Finance still have failed to deliver (and when the remunaration system would be introduced then?). While New Era party is holding the reins of power still certain ministers drag their feet and sometimes obstruct the reform process. Instead of solving the problems in a transparent way Latvian executive continues its traditional ways of secrecy. For example, the government without any discussions and listening to doctors or social workers opinion has agreed to give in to the alcohol producers lobby (the minister of Agriculture Mr Duklavs (UGF) was the manager of Piebalgas Alus brewery), and they want to start selling alcohol at night again (now all sale of alcohol is prohibited from 10pm - 10am). The former transport supremo has changed his profile and he is the vice Maire of Riga now. His political announcements are shady however, and its seems that he has left several political land mines behind him.

The fact that some of the governing coalition members want to terminate negotiations with the IMF is simply stupid and shows short - sightedness of those politicians who dare to make such announcements. Also it makes me feel that something is brewing in the governing circles. The latest ratings show that except the Harmony Center party all other Latvian parties have lost legitimacy in the eyes of Latvian voters. Probably some of the parties who have come up with controversial announcements about the termination of the negotiations with the IMF hope for some brownies and early elections. Juris Dobelis (Fatherland Party-MP) in his latest interview uttered that he does not believe the present parliament would be able to survive until the October 2010 elections. The snap elections cannot come from the clear sky, however, and need a legitimate cause for the president to use his powers entitled upon him. I would not be surprised if May 26, 2009 meeting would end in disaster, that would make the president to call for sacking the utterly inefficient parliament. According to Latvian constitution the referendum would be called then in two months where presidents might come out either as a Latvian history maker or as a loser.

Why do I think this way? Because if the early parliamentary elections would take as early as possible then PP, UGF and Fatherland parties have still something to gain. The more time goes by the more legitimacy the Harmony Center and Latvian First and Latvian Party Union (LFLWPU) would gain and more control over administrative resources acquire. Also earlier elections the better for government parties, because it would not be easy for the Harmony Center and LFLWPU to find viable candidates for the parliament, and Ainars Slesers would find it hard to justify his decision to run for the parliament again.

Early elections would also prevent the rapid consolidation of the reformist Latvian parties - New Era, Civic Union and Society for Another Politics, although that process proceeds slowly now. Anyway, I have always kept repeating that I do support early elections due to many reasons. First, the elections in October 2006 were not truly legitimate and it also created historic precedent by the decision of the Supreme Court as of November 3, 2006. Second, in the parliamentary republic the travails of lawmakers are supreme, but while Latvia experiences worst economic decline in its history parliamentarians are simply in recess now. Third, most of the MP`s are simply unqualified and are simply killing their time in order to meet their mortgage payments. Finally, I believe that legitimacy of the rulers can be restored only by punishing perpetrators who allowed Latvian state to be led into its present abyss. And even if Latvian lawmakers did not participate in shady deals, their major guilt is the fact that their incapacity to rule was a major cause for lack of oversight over Latvian regulatory agencies and outright legal loopholes that allowed chosen interest groups instead of public to reign supremely for the last eighteen years. There is no better punishment for the present MP´s than early elections.

Final "pearls" of the hopefully outgoing political "elite" in Latvia

There was an article in Helsingin Sanomat before, and in Der Zeit last month where the same picture was used, and making the "nothing special" slogan a real Latvian trademark.

© ILMARS ZNOTINS/AFP/Getty

It would have been rather encouraging news unless it was not uttered by the lacklustre former minister of finance. Former banker considered that "nothing special"could be used as a new trademark for advertising Latvia internationally. While such a proposal created some laughing in neighboring Estonia, I somehow believe that to come out with negative connotations for branding countries cannot really bring anything positive out. While there were numerous warning signs about the problems mounting in Латвия, the former government continued to live in their power bubble.

Instead to assess how come Latvian politicians were able to not to listen to numerous warning signs, announce orderly and early elections, and to continue from the clean sleet onwards, there is absolute stillness from the Riga Castle so far. I wish all the courage to the new government, but amidst their tasks in overhauling the outdated Latvian administrative machinery the president has probably forgotten that the early elections are primarily needed for returning legitimacy into democratic regime among the Latvian citizenry! Whether the president still keeps this option open we should see on March 32, 2009, as it has become customary to joke in Latvia lately.

In the meantime the Prime Minister Dombrovskis is forced to acknowledge that Latvian government would probably have to borrow additional 1 billion from international creditors in order to be on the safe side before the harsh autumn. In the same time the so-called "public relations engineers" are speculating that journalist are among those culprits to be blamed for Latvia finding itself in the sorry state of economy and social turmoil today. The same so-called "public relations engineers" somehow seem to forget that the former toothless and complacent government [who's representatives still sit in the parliament and government] is directly responsible for bringing Latvia at the verge of bankruptcy, and most of economics and business experts acknowledged it in their interview.

As if there would not be enough of bad news the former PM Šķēle came out with bombastic opinion yesterday. In his interview to the Latvian TV evening news (objectivity of the public TV must be questioned if thus many former politicians appear disproportionately often on air and give their reckless remarks) former PM somehow confirmed long circling rumours about changing his own mortgage from euros into Latvian lats. He opined that Latvian currency could be devalued and created quite an uproar in the Latvian Internet forums.

Also, former PM had an opinion that the Presidential deadline of March 31 and possible initiation of referendum process calling for early elections would be shortsighted, and detrimental to the very existence of the Republic of Latvia ["Savukārt uz jautājumu par to, vai Valsts prezidentam būtu jārosina Saeimas atlaišana pēc 31.marta, jo daļa prezidenta uzdevumu nav izpildīti, A.Šķēle atbildēja: "Tā būtu absolūta tuvredzība. Tā būtu Latvijas valsts iznīcināšana."]. Indeed, the early elections would be detrimental to the Latvia Ltd. and one of its architects, but most of the citizenry would sigh in relief when such law transgressing parties as People's Party and Latvia First/Latvian Way would cease to exists and would find themselves in the waste bin of history.

God speed Valdis Dombrovskis!

Today Valdis Dombrovskis became the fifteenth Prime Minister of Latvia, since this Baltic State regained its independence eighteen years ago. Happy to learn that Valdis Dombrovskis represents the same generation I do, and quite ominously he has become not only the youngest prime minister in Latvia, but he is also the youngest leader in the EU today. His new cabinet was approved with 67 YEA votes, and 21 NAY´s came from the majority russophone Harmony Centre and Human Rights parties in a hundred member parliament.

Photo: R.Olins/Apollo

In normal circumstances people should be celebrating but not this time in Latvia. Parliamentary majority accepted the new Corruption Bureau Chief Mr. Normunds Vilnitis, the politicized state enterprises councils were liquidated, and also ``the anti-Mafia`` law was finally passed in the parliament! However, those amendments were long overdue in this corruption ridden country. The former government led the country to the verge of the bankruptcy, and now Valdis Dombrovskis must lead the country out of the malaise together with former ``adversaries``. The task of the new PM is not going to be easy, because he would have to be constantly guarding his back from his own coalition members ...

Photo: Kristians Putnins

Decisions of the parliament to pass the long mulled laws and appoint Mr Vilnitis as the new Anti Corruption warrior are encouraging, thus, God speed Valdis Dombrovskis with your challenging work in overhauling the antiquated state machinery! Glad to realize, that also Gatis Šļūka in his cartoons has the same contemplations:)

Text in Latvian: [The question] What should we do? it simply does not operate...[an answer] We would reinstall it!

P.S. Here is my interview to ERR presented on the web thanks to the Päevaleht Online

Bad habits of the "outgoing political elite"...

The newly formed government of Valdis Dombrovskis faces uphill struggle. In case Dombrovskis's government would be approved in tomorrow's Saeima session, and its seems the most likely scenario [to believe the snap opinion poll I have on the top right corner of this very page], the new government would have to cut government expenses for about another 1 billion euros to keep the 2009 fiscal deficit at -5% level.

If there is one extremely bad habit of the hopefully outgoing and self imposed "political elite" in Latvia, then it is the system of finding scapegoats for their own wrongdoings every time and everywhere. Like politicians in France their homologues in Latvia love to blame EU for most of their own shortcomings.

Below you may see today's front page of the second major Latvian daily NRA. Regardless of totally reckless and sometimes "puzzling" policy making of the former government the newspaper came out with the following header today - Eiropa prasa griezt skarbāk...

(text in Latvian) - Europe demands drastic [budget] cuts

P.S. I am listening to the Latvia's most popular talk show now, and the PM nominee Valdis Dombrovskis just announced that his government would seriously consider introducing the mandatory income declaration system as one of the first tasks of his government.

P.P.S. While the government published its declaration , also the People's Party nominated their candidate for the Minister of Culture today.

Latvian "vertical of power"

Yesterday evening the Latvian LNT TV station had an unexpected talk show with all but one former primer ministers present, and Andris Bērziņš busy preparing for elections. My colleague Iveta Kažoka in her blog spared my time to immediately write my contemplations about the program in Latvian. The central question of the show was - what Latvia should do? - as if Latvia would be some kind of abstract entity, and it would not have basic mechanisms of state governance. The most active speakers were former prime ministers from the People's Party (PP). Other ministers chirped out some ideas as well, but somewhat miraculously central theme of the whole emission became - whether the future Latvian government should exercise emergency powers and resort to the vertical of power!

The odious Art. 81 allowed the Cabinet to exercise legislative powers while parliament was in recess. This article was rid from the Latvian Constitution after Aigars Kalvītis government tried to perform shadow coup d'etat at the end of 2006 with the secretive changes in the law of security organizations. Yesterday, it was the incumbent Prime Minister Ivars Godmanis who assumed that without resorting to the Art. 81, and endowing Latvian executive with legislative powers, there is no chance for the Valdis Dombrovskis future cabinet to solve the challenges Latvia is facing right now. There were only two ministers - Guntars Krasts & Einārs Repše - who objected to return of the Art. 81.

The anchor of the program could not really moderate the discussion thus former prime ministers' diatribes were unbearable for most of the time. Former PM Valdis Birkavs had an idee fixe that 80% of the Latvian civil servants should be given unpaid leave until the mess with the bloated Latvian government is solved. Also representing his own construction lobby, he believed that the only right solution for Latvia getting out of the present dire straits is propping up the construction business. Moderator paid undue "attention" to the proposed Minister of Finance in the future government, Mr Einārs Repše. He asked him and other PM's whether Latvian monetary authorities should not unilaterally decide about the Latvian currency switched over to euro? All former PM's agreed that stability of the Latvian currency is the prerequisite for leading Latvia out of the present economic swamp. Around the middle of the show the moderator asked the key question - what the former eight prime ministers considered their faults for having Latvia now on the verge of bankruptcy?

Einārs Repše tried to argue that probably he was too offensive with his onslaught on the Latvian corrupt networks and probably overestimated his personal powers, thus had to give in to the government of Indulis Emsis. Aigars Kalvītis and Andris Šķēle were drumming the same tambourine, and believed that they had been too mild in giving in to the requests of the trade unions. Other than that, those gentlemen did not find a single fault (!) in their performance. Such issues as the rule of law and personal responsibility simply did not appear in that discussion. The personal willpower and extreme form of technocratic approach to problems was omnipresent, thus "Latvian self proclaimed political elite members" came to conclusion that if there would not been the coalition "cow trading" their work would have been a lot more easier whilst having possibility to resort to emergency powers. Thus much about the traditional cognisance of democracy among six (!) former prime ministers in Латвия... .

I never had any hopes about any of the Latvian AAA team ministers. At least there is a flicker of hope about the future cabinet being able to lead the country in one piece until the early elections. The trust in democratic regime among Latvian populace was lost very much due to the same authoritarian prime ministers exercising their power unaccounted. The results are not far to look after, because latest polls show that about a quarter of the Latvian population would better prefer authoritarian dictator than party democracy in Latvia... . The quarter of population is probably the same that does not want to take part in elections, that monthly sociological pollsters regularly show us.

The new government should be voted in the parliament the coming Thursday. The new government still does not have the candidate for the minister of culture. At least the opposition New Era (NE) party seems like playing the chicken game, because they announced about reevaluation of the formerly signed agreements about super-expensive construction of the National Library. PP has not openly opposed this announcement, but the former ministers of health and education have voiced their doubts about taking their posts in the future government, because according to them additional 20% budget cuts (in addition to the -15% initiated already in January 2009) are too drastic. However, the IMF and EU conditionality is a good mechanism, because monies are not disbursed until requested agreements are reached. Previously mentioned ministers and PP party should understand, that if they would undermine the Valdis Dombrovskis formed cabinet they would pull also themselves into the dustbin of history. Thus, I consider the PP leadership frantic holding to the demand for control over the EU structural fund cash flows as sign of extreme weakness of that party (apparently they do not have neither human resources nor funds, if they plan to propose Ms Anta Rugāte for the Culture Minister post). The Valdis Dombrovskis formed government would have several priorities to perform in order to reignite the frozen Latvian economy. But before that, lets wait for the Thursday vote in the parliament. And while waiting for the vote, you may perceive the prevailing mood among the Latvian public about the bacchanalia's of the former government through another poignant cartoon of Gatis Šļūka.


Text in Latvian: [Men in Red hat]: Where is the booze? It was a hard and unpopular decision.

First draft of the V. Dombrovskis government (updated)

Valdis Dombrovskis declared today that he would announce the list of the new cabinet members on Wednesday morning . Until now the initial draft looks as follows:

Prime Minister — Valdis Dombrovskis (New Era-NE)
Minister of Forign Affairs — Māris Riekstiņš (People's Party-PP)
Minister of Defense — Candidate from the Civic Union (CU) (probability to have either V. Kristovskis or Kārlis Šadurskis)
Minister of Justice — Mareks Segliņš (PP)
Minister of Economy — Artis Kampars (NE)
Minister of Finance — Einars Repše (NE)
Minister of Transportation — Kaspars Gerhards (Fatherland Party)
Minister of Interior — Linda Mūrniece (NE)
Minister o Education — Tatjana Koķe (Union of Greens and Farmers-UGF)
Minister of Culture — Candidate from the PP ( probability to have Juris Žagars)
Minister of Agriculture — Jānis Dūklavs (UGF)
Minister of Welfare — Uldis Augulis (UGF)
Minister of Municipal Affairs — Edgars Zalāns (PP)
Minister of Health — Ivars Eglītis (PP)
Minister of Environment — Raimonds Vējonis (UGF)

Out of fifteen ministries there are five ministers from the previous government, three members of NE party have ministerial experience, and a true newcomer of this list is the former brewer Jānis Dūklavs. There could be a newcomer also for the Minister of Culture post, and unless the Civic Union party would propose Ģirts Valdis Kristovskis, we could have newcomer also in the Ministry of Defense.

It is too early to judge the future cabinet, because this draft list could still be amended. However, the immediate tasks of cutting budget for about another EUR 1 billion until the end of March, does not allow the new government to start slimming the government. Otherwise such lacklustre ministers as K. Gerhards, T. Koķe, and M. Segliņš would not even be proposed. However, really good news is that the Latvian First Party/Latvia's Way (LFP/LW) would not be included in the governing coalition. Former PM Godmanis was offered to lead the Ministry of Agriculture but he perceived it rather like an insult. Thus, very much due to the Transport Supremo extravagance and Ivars Godmanis following him in short leash the once major liberal party is out of the government, again... .

Update

It is Wednesday morning and Valdis Dombrovskis has come up with the Minister of Defense candidature, while the Minister of Culture post being still vacant. The Civic Union has offered the post to its party member Imants Lieģis, a former ambassador to Spain.

Good luck Valdis Dombrovskis!

In a quarter an hour the President of Latvia should speak at the press conference. After former Prime Minister Godmanis handed in his letter of resignation Latvia needed a new PM quickly. Urgency of decision making is needed due to the structural problems of the Latvian economy [rather ominously Latvian president would hold talks with the prominent group of economic experts after the press conference today] as well as due to the ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. As if to prove the speed of decision making in Latvia also the Latvian Parliament started their session early today [listening to the live session of the Saeima on LR], and already with 85 YEA voices passed the constitutional amendments in first reading, while agreeing that those same amendments would be voted in second reading on March 10, 2009. Those are the same constitutional amendments that brought about 650 000 Latvian citizens to the election booths last summer. It seems as if the parliament is in a hurry now to pass all the presidential requirements prior the deadline of March 31 expires, because the parliament plans also to pass the amendments in election law in the third and final reading.


The president already announced that he would decide between the two candidates - Valdis Dombrovskis and Edgars Zalāns. From the experience, skills, merits... and finally from the common sense point of view [you do not trust the party representative who created all this mess!] the president should give Valdis Dombrovskis a chance to form a large coalition government.

The president just came [9:40CET] out with his announcement and common sense still prevails in Republic of Latvia - Valdis Dombrovskis is a new PM nominee!

At the end there was only one...

Photo: Lita Krone (LETA/Diena)

Valdis Dombrovskis nominated other two opposition Civic Union and Society for Another Politics parties as the immediate partners in the upcoming coalition building process. People's Party (PP), Union of Greens and Farmers as well as Fatherland and Freedom Party would be asked to participate in coalition building process, that should together give them 64 vote majority in the hundred member Saeima. According to Dombrovskis he expects the new government to be formed within two weeks. The president announced that he has listened to solid promises from the expected coalition parties to take part in the newly formed government, and if some of the parties would fail to support the future government then it would be the responsibility of those parties themselves, thus basically allowing the president still to stick to the ominous March 31 deadline. The PP behavior was suspicious during last days, and it felt as if they neither want to have the PM post nor want to support the opposition candidate for the PM office. The issue of early elections is still looming above the parliamentarians, and it clashes with the personal interests of certain members of care taking government now. The upcoming two weeks would be hot, and I would not exclude the scenario of the majority of MP's not being able to agree on the Valdis Dombrovskis future cabinet.

Finnish author and cartoonist Jukka Rislaki presented a rather colourful vision of the present Latvian environment. The parliament is discussing amendments in election law right at this moment and while listening to the speeches I am sadly realizing how backward Latvian MP's are. Those issues they discuss now, should have been discussed fifteen years ago. At economically turbulent times, when different fiscal and economic policies should be discussed Latvian MP's are still busy with polity matters, huh, uhhh. Anyway, lai sokas Valdi Dombrovski!

Text in Latvian: [Phoenix] New Government, Phoenix wants to rise from ashes again

Cartoon: Juka Rislaki

P.S. For those of you reading Estonian here is my Delfi piece today.

More candidates for the Latvian PM post proposed (updated)

On weekend rumours whirled about the party faction head Mrs Solvita Āboltiņa being the candidate for the opposition New Era party (NE). This morning the three parliamentary opposition parties - New Era, Civic Union (CU) and Society for Other Politics (SCP) - came out with an announcement that they would come out with a common candidate. Today the NE party proposed Mr Valdis Dombrovskis (MEP) as their candidate for the PM nomination, very good, the best candidate possible during these dire times indeed!

Last week the three opposition parties announced that they would coordinate their acts and would also demand early elections. This morning the NE party cancelled the three opposition parties' meeting because of the meeting with the Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF) at the same time. According to SCP and CU all opposition parties would agree on common nomination for the PM post. Confirmations from CU and SCP agreeing on Valdis Dombrovskis candidacy have not come in yet however.


Also the largest russophone opposition Harmony Centre (HC) party announced their candidate for the PM office Mr Jānis Urbanovičs. He is a long standing opposition member and sits in the parliament since 1993. In addition to the announcement about the HC nominee the HC party faction head in the parliament Mr Nils Ušakovs announced that "there is total confusion in the parliament, and thus he would not exclude the possibility about calling for vote of no confidence against the president Zatlers."

In the meantime UGF, PP and Latvia's First/Latvian Way party union announced that they are ready to work under the NE leadership. Strong leadership skills would be required from the new PM, because the previous governing coalition left a huge mess behind them. I do not believe in chances of the PP nominee Mr Edgars Zalāns, and most probably he would be badly battered by Mr Valdis Dombrovskis on tonight's Latvian Public TV 100.pants discussion show.

Not only structural reforms, but also negotiations with the IMF would have to be continued, because the IMF has left the town since the government of Ivars Godmanis resigned. Valdis Dombrovskis being a former Minister of Finance could combine his educational background and skills with his networks in the European Parliament, and regain the credibility for the government talking in one voice with the foreign donors. Dark clouds are above the Latvian financial system and faster the new government would act the better!

Text in Latvian: The currency basket-Latvian lat; [The Dog] It is only a matter of time

Cartoon: Gatis Šļūka

Update

There are bombastic news circling in Russia and in the Baltic States now about the billionaire businessman Pjotr Aven offering his services to become the next Latvian Prime Minister. Pjotr Aven is a president of the Alfa Bank, he already owns the Latvia's biggest alcohol producer "Latvijas Balzāms". While Aven without Latvian citizenship but with his ancestry steeped into Latvian red riflemen has not spoken himself, and only his aid has said "billionaire Pyotr Aven is "very interested" in becoming Latvia's next prime minister after the Baltic state's government collapsed last week", negotiations about the future composition of the cabinet are ongoing.

This morning the Civic Union (CU) announced that they support Valdis Dombrovskis candidacy now for leading the Latvian government until early elections, and The Society for Other Politics has not come out with their announcement yet. Meanwhile the New Era (NE) has included the another opposition Harmony Centre party (HC) in the consultation process, thus taking the initiative away from the People's Party (PP). The biggest bone of contention from inclusion HC into negotiations is the fact that the HC is a party union where the most odious member is the unreformed Latvian Socialists led by Alfrēds Rubiks . An agreement is reached so far that Latvian Socialists could not expect anything tangible from being partners in the government, while in elections the HC would still represent them.

To be honest, I somehow suspect that the biggest and ideologically homogeneous parties with such tactics want to brake the ideologically heterogeneous party unions prior elections. Already prior the resignation of Ivars Godmanis government the Green party announced that they could leave the Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF), if the Ministry of Environment would be merged wit the proposed "Super ministry of Economics, environment and regional affairs". Now, with the HC being a vital stabilizing force during the negotiation process in forming the new government I do not suspect that Latvian Socialists could come out with similar announcement, due to the simple reason - Alfrēds Rubiks should run for the European Parliament from the HC list this summer. But in the medium term inclusion of the HC in the government could turn away the core supporters of socialism from the party.

If it would be 2006 now then I would suspect disagreements also in the Latvia's Way and Latvian First Party Union. Now, with the party merged there is not reason to suspect it splitting. However, after the new government in place and most probably early elections coming we should expect consolidation of Latvian political parties, and especially in the right wing. It wont happen within a year now, but the endogenous events [economic and financial crisis] and the structural requirements to overhaul the whole Latvian economic system and administrative apparatus would force consolidation of Latvian conservative, centrist and liberal forces. In the meantime Latvian folks have to carry on with their daily lives, and "Diena" cartoonist has a rather peculiar view on today's situation...

Text in Latvian: [TV anchorwoman] Political parties still have not reached an agreement who would take a place on the PM seat... [unpaid bills on the floor]

Cartoon: Zemgus

Latvian new government coalition negotiations

Most of the international media channels already announced that the tenure of Ivars Godmanis is over. While Wall Street Journal, IHT or Bloomberg emphasize the importance of endogenous effects [economic crisis] on the fall of Latvian government, I still believe that primary reason for the government to fall were domestic policy calculations prior upcoming election marathon. I received several calls asking my opinion about the PM resigning and my straight answer was - this decision was long overdue! (remember that this cabinet survived the vote of no-confidence vis-a-vis two of its ministers already last Summer). Ivars Godmanis was a personal poodle of his party boss Ainārs Šlesers, and whilst being the governing coalition minority partner he never had a room for maneuver. His cabinet consisted from the same ministers as the government of A. Kalvītis, and it must be underlined again, that the two governing coalition partied got elected illegally. During the October 2006 parliamentary elections People's Party (PP) and Prime Minister's Latvia's Way/Latvian First Party Union (LPP) breached the election law, and after a long legal process both parties should pay around LVL 1,5 million into the Latvian State Treasury.



The government is dead and long live new government one must exclaim now! Good colleague Kārlis Streips in his blog already calculated that after the current resignation Latvia has had one government every fourteen months on the average (15 governments during the last 17,5 years). It is a far cry from Italy or Turkey, but it is far too much for a typical Northern European country. And what an irony, in his2007/08 TV New Year speech to the nation Ivars Godmanis expressed a wish to follow the Nordic path... .

The governor of the Bank of Latvia Mr Ilmārs Rimšēvics already announced that in these economically precarious times the new government should be formed within a week. Majority People's Party (PP) has already announced their candidate. The problem with the PP proposal is that their ratings have collapsed. According to latest "Latvijas Fakti" pollster provided for us in the TV3 website one may read that PP support has declined to meagre 1,6% (from the 2,5% last month). Anyway, to have an overview here is the February data where about 1050 respondents were answering the monthly question: "what party you would vote for, if elections would take place tomorrow?"

Harmony Center - 10,1% (January – 9,0%)
Union of Greens and Farmers – 6,3% (January -4,0%)
New Era – 6,3% (January -5,1%)
Society for Other Politics 4,8% (January -4,6%)
Civic Union 3,8% (January - 2,6%)
For Human Rights in United Latvia – 3,3% (January -4,7%)
Fatherland Party – 3,1% (January - 2,5%)
Latvian First and Latvian Way party union– 2,3% (January -3,3%)
People's Party – 1,6% (January -2,5%)
"All to Latvia" – 1,5% (January - 1,2%).
"I do not know" or undecided voters - 35% (January - 36,4%)
"I would not take part in elections" or alienated voters - 17,1% (January - 17,8%)

The rest of the ratings are not surprising and if we would look into the September 2006 data (that I do not have with me now:), then the number of undecided or swing voters would be pretty much the same, and there would have been less alienated voters. Now with all the corruption scandals, economy stalled and outright stupid political games the number of alienated voters has increased. And here I absolutely blame the present governing gang for that!

But how would the country develop and who would be possible PM candidates? As I just earlier mentioned then PP has announced the Kuldīga Harry Potter look-alike Mr Zalāns as their prime candidate for the PM post. The decision to nominate Edgars Zalāns makes me reckon that PP tactics is to sit as a prime mover & shaker from the back seat. According to such plan PP would allow New Era (NE) party to propose their PM candidate, and he could be even nominated by the president. I am just afraid that ten silver shekels would have to be paid for the New Era calling off their previous demand for early elections in order to get the PM post. Valdis Dombrovskis (MEP) was NE candidat for the PM post already in December 2007, when president Zatlers nominated Ivars Godmanis as a PM. These days the news circle about the NE Party faction leader Mrs Solvita Āboltiņa as the new candidate from the NE however.

In any case the major bone of contention in this government formation process would be agreement on early elections! It was the president Zatlers who announced on January 14 that he would initiate early elections if government and the parliament "would not find new members into cabinet", would not find a new head of the Corruption Prevention Bureau (KNAB), and would not pass required constitutional amendments. Now the government "should have new members", Mr Vilnītis is proposed as the new head of KNAB, and constitutional amendments are mulled through the parliament. Basically it means that there is no need for the president to initiate the procedure of early elections, and that procedure is endowed to him in the Art. 48 of Satversme.

With Ivars Godmanis government stepping down the new cabinet should be formed in the previous size. It means that the only way to achieve the slimmed down size is, if the parliament would pass amendments into the law of the cabinet of ministers. If not, the same bloated 18 member cabinet would be formed, and who would form the governing coalition?

The president wants to have the national unity government, but as a doctor he should understand that reconciliation between rapist and rape victim is possible only when the latter suffers the Stockholm syndrome. Anyway, among two parties who demanded resignation of Ivars Godmanis PP are at the helm of consultations now. Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF) announced in earnest that their major candidate for the PM post is ... incumbent Maire of Ventspils! The UGF faction leader in the parliament Mr Brigmanis shyly announced that he understands, that it is not good to propose such a candidate who is under criminal investigation for misuse of power and having accusations about corruption charges, but he still believes that A. Lembergs is their best PM candidate... .

The TV3 "Nekā Personīga" website revealed another interesting "Latvijas Fakti" poll. Respondents were asked their preferential candidate for the PM office, and the Maire of Ventspils came strongly second after Ms Ingūna Sudraba the present Head of the State Audit Office and in front of the former president Vaira Vīķe Freiberga. Quite interestingly those respondents who nominated Ingūna Sudraba as their first candidate wanted to see Vaira Vīķe Freiberga as their second best candidate , however those who nominated Ivars Godmanis as their first candidate wanted to the see Maire of Ventspils as their second best choice...collective Stockholm syndrome reflected in real life situation?

The coalition negotiations will be ongoing next week. If during the party negotiations the early elections would be called off then most probably the New Era Mrs Āboltiņa would be nominated to form the new cabinet. In case the strategists of opposition parties would look further into future then they would not back off from the call for early elections, and most probably Edgars Zalāns would turn out to be the new PM then. There is still a legitimate question, what was the reason for PP and UGF to withdraw a support from the Godmanis government after they just supported it on February 4? An answer is simple, Latvian political system enables those parties to perform better in elections (on June 6 there are European Parliament and municipal elections forthcoming) who are at the helm and can use "administrative resources". Next week will be interesting and the negotiations would start with all the party representatives invited to the Riga Castle already on Monday.

Latvian political theatre continues: Episode Two

It is Friday morning and there are still no substantial changes in the way Latvia is governed. While the PM tours neighbouring Belarus, the president participated in the morning TV news and announced, "that Latvian political parties keep their own interests above the interests of the Republic of Latvia." It is hard to tell whether the president really comprehends what he is saying, or it is another speech in a row of inconsequential announcements. The fact is that the People' s Party (PP) is meeting the president today, and the PP would be given a chance to underline the strengths of their master plan for increasing efficiency of the Latvian civil service. The very plan PP sticks to was already severely criticized by the Head of the State Audit office Ms Ingūna Sudraba, Iveta Kažoka from "Providus", and also the PM's party wanted to have clear answer to ten questions concerning the proposed reform of the state administrative apparatus.

In the meantime the head of the Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF) faction in the parliament Mr Brigmanis announced that all coalition parties should announce today that they are giving up support for the PM government if the PM cannot do it himself. Such announcement after the same UDF did not support the Cabinet's vote of no confidence two weeks ago sounds simply crazy, but lately the sudden change of mind has become a real trademark of Latvian politicians, unfortunately.

The president is allowing the free fall of Latvian government until the March 31 with his ominous announcement after the return from Strasbourg in early January. I am afraid that he does not understand the magnitude of problems in Latvia, and the sooner he would make up his mind about calling for early elections the better. Latvian political parties have already started election campaigning and on this front nothing has changed. Certain governing coalition parties smugly believe that majority of Latvian society is inadequately educated and it is possible to buy them with shallow propaganda again.

With the free fall of the government also the Latvian economy continues its downward spiralling. Except the coming spring weather there is nothing to cheer about. Somehow the feeling never leaves me, while talking on the streets or following political talk shows and radio interviews, that nobody is really in charge in this country now, brrrr

Text in Latvian: I somehow wonder, why do I have a feeling that I am pouring this money into some kind of hole...

Cartoon: Gatis Šļūka

Latvian political theatre continues: Episode One

Latvian political developments are not even comic anymore. The Latvian president announced last Friday night, that he lost his trust in the Latvian Prime Minister Godmanis. Rather many pundits encouraged the president to demand the resignation of PM, but they probably forgot about the Latvian Constitution, that entitles only the parliament to demand the resignation of the Cabinet. Nevertheless, after that ominous announcement the president summoned the PM to the Riga Castle this afternoon. After four hours of discussions between the two politicians the president announced that he convinced the PM to reconsider his initial plan to postpone the refurbishing of the existing government. After that the Prime Minister recognized that his plan was too harsh after all, therefore he agreed that the plan of his rival People's Party (PP) is more down to the earth, and he would probably ignite another plan for "remodelling the Ms Latvia sails in the open seas of the global economic storm". Even the lacklustre president managed to get dry out of water according to "the Latvian standards", because he simply announced that he trusts the PM again (!), and he also sticks to his March 31, 2009 deadline (who can trust that there is any (?) deadline in this Latvian wonderland anymore).

No more comment tonight, and lets wait till the Episode II of this badly staged theatre.



Text in Latvian: But!! Yes! No! However...

Cartoon: Vladimirs

P.S. For those of you reading Latvian here is my Diena piece.

The Latvian Cabinet agrees that it cannot agree on anything...(updated)

After all the hype about the reorganization of the bloated Latvian government, cutting wages, and slimming it down from eighteen to twelve ministries (and cutting the number of state agencies from about 200 to 85) the government of Ivars Godmanis returned to square one! According to BNS the governing coalition council agreed that they cannot agree on anything, and they would continue within the present government framework...thus continuing to enjoy their power bubble... .

According to the news the PM and the rest of the government have drawn a red line, and would "seriously work on alleviating the economic turbulence and revise the 2009 budget medium term expenditures now", until the municipal and European parliament elections on June 6, 2009! Seems that the power bubble is really tiny in Latvia! To use science fiction analogies I have a feeling now that the Latvian "governing nomenclature" has exited (or never entered:) the EU called solar system, and still complacently enjoys the orbit of the post-Soviet Andromeda... .

Text in Latvian - "You crossed the red line!"

Cartoon: Gatis Šļūka

Latvia is already a failed state where the PM economic advisor Mr Miglavs openly announced in today's interview in Diena, that, if the dairy industry will not find export markets, it would probably have to be shut down, and just after LVL 27mlj. were allocated to farmers after their protests last week. Inability to plan the restructuring of economic sectors is endemic. Ministries of agriculture and education were run by the Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF) ministers for the last six years, but the UGF policy in supporting all small holders without asking any education credentials has failed now. Policies were left stranded and not solved in complex manner. Therefore, for example, while in neighboring Estonia 5,7% of the economically active workforce in agricultural sector produces 2,9% of GDP, in Latvia for producing 3,3% of GDP requires 12,8% of economically active farmers... .

The workers is the smallest concern now, because government is busy with appointment of ministers after the ministers of agriculture and culture had to leave their respective posts. Changes in the Latvian cabinet require approval of the parliamentary majority, while changes in the same Estonian or German cabinet can be decided by the PM and approved by the president. With the antiquated form of the Latvian constitution, that stems from the controversial Weimar Grundgesetz, the Latvian PM would never be able to produce any results. It is because his primary concern would always remain provision of the governing coalition stability. Concerns about the latter is too much of a luxury in today's turbulent times, and the "Latvian governing nomenclature" unfortunately does not comprehend that... . After all the bickering and bad blood spilled I cannot understand how the government and governing coalition MP's can draw red lines and agree on anything?

The president Zatlers consulted with the EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs while in Strasbourg, and Mr Piebalgs did not exclude the possibility to take over the rudder of Ms Latvia if such proposal would be made to him. It makes me reckon that the governing coalition is irresponsibly imitating the work during economically dire times now, and trying to understand among themselves how the perks would be divided after the fall of the incumbent government. Political science is powerless here, and psychiatrist is needed to evaluate the state of mind of those "governing" Latvia today... .

Update

At the end of the day the president Zatlers rather unexpectedly came up with an announcement, while commenting the decision of the government to abolish the plan to overhaul the government this morning. "Mr President has lost his trust in the prime minister Mr. Godmanis" [I.Godmaņa kungs ir zaudējis manu uzticību,» atzinis Valsts prezidents], and he summoning the PM to the Riga Castle next Monday. That's it, and another announcement in the badly staged theatre... .

I refuse to comment his announcement this time because the Latvian president is famous for changing his mind according to winds blowing.

Hallo - anyone still trusting the Latvian government!?

Returned back from Brussels yesterday and realized that nothing substantial has happened in Latvia during the week. Government spoekpersons continue to slowly deliver smug announcements about the refurbishing of the government facade. News just came in from the Statistics Bureau about the Latvian economy contracting -10,5% in the fourth quarter last year, and the unemployment reaching 8, 8% margin in January 2009. Instead of comparing this data with the one in Hungary, Slovakia or Netherlands the PM paints picture about the state of economy in truly apocalyptic colours in his official pronouncements. Last pearl from the head of the cabinet was his announcement during the Latvian TV evening news prior the vote of no confidence: ``that nobody will replace him at the rudder of Ms Latvia without elections, because he as a captain would rather go down with the ship...period! Lets see what kind of gems would follow an announcement about the latest macroeconomic data:)

People´s Party (PP) proposes their MP and a former musician Vents Armands Krauklis for the post of the Minister of Culture. It seems that the governing coalition parties are running not only short of time, but also of sensible candidates. Meanwhile Diena columnist, Ms Laila Pakalnina already openly speaks about the moral bankruptcy of the Latvia Ltd. political ``elite`` today... .

Text in Latvian:

WE ARE LOOKING FOR A NEW FURNACE MANAGER

(A SMART ONE)

LATVIAN ECONOMY

(IMF sacks of money below)

Cartoon: Davis Nore

After surviving successful vote of no confidence the PM has become unapproachable. Ivars Godmanis announced that he is open for discussions about the expanded government. Consolidating opposition parties are shunning him and they consequently refuse to be added to already existing government as an addendum, and even the coalition parties are not content with the style of Godmanis government. In the NRA newsreel the head of the Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF) faction openly announces this morning that in the parliament there is already a feeling, that the end of the existing coalition government has arrived. Thus, Mr Brigmanis proposes a new and apolitical candidate for the new PM post, Mr Inesis Feiferis. Mr Brigmanis believes that Mr Feiferis would be the best candidate for the premiership during these dire straits. But I still cannot trust Mr Brigmanis, because just couple of month ago he was insisting that their PM candidate is the greatest ``benefactor`` of the UGF, Mr Lembergs. The sooner the president would make up his mind the better... .