Approaching elections and tectonic shifts in Latvia

Prior last parliamentary elections the Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF) political union added the pocket party ''For Latvia and Ventspils'' into its fold. Major reason for such a move was the fact that the major financier of both parties is the Major of Ventspils. Such move initiated a trend of consolidation among existing political parties in Latvia. The next one to follow was the political union between the Latvian First and Latvian Way parties (LFLWP). The LFLWP in its party congress in August 2007 merged as one party to avoid possible legal consequences concerning breach of the political party campaign limits in the election law.

The Harmony Centre (HC) political union was gradually expanding its membership since last parliamentary elections. Number of smaller left to the centre parties (Social Democrats and Daugavpils City Party) have joined the major left to the centre political union so far, and HC is comfortably leading polls for a year already.

As if responding to the minuscule support that Latvian electorate has shown to the fractional political parties also Latvian Europeanized political parties have discussed possible merger into political union for a half of a year already. The Civic Union split from the New Era party in early 2008. The gradually shifting political landscape made them to reconsider the move and since Summer 2009 Prime Minister's New Era, Civic Union and Society for Different Politics have held political consultations about principles of possible merger into political union. The consultations were fruitful and on March 6 the political union ''Unity'' would be founded in Riga.

Half a month ago there were only speculations about possible political union between the People's Party and LFLWP. This morning the Minister of Regional Affairs in the LNT 900 sekundes TV program did not exclude the possibility of creating a Latvian First People's Party political union because according to Minister Zalans demand for such a union exists particularly in Latvian regions.

The elections campaign is starting in earnest, and while expecting the follow up of the ''Unity'' congress (which other political parties joining them?) I am wondering whether the proposed Latvian First People's Party political union is not another way of avoiding paying due fines into state treasury? After all, the LFLWP already created precedent of not paying about 500 000 lats into state treasury and People's Party is due to pay about LVL 1mlj. Latvian State Prosecutors should not let those two gravest examples of legal nihilism to go unattended. The principle of legal succession should still work in Latvia, does it?

Good luck Valdis Dombrovskis!

In a quarter an hour the President of Latvia should speak at the press conference. After former Prime Minister Godmanis handed in his letter of resignation Latvia needed a new PM quickly. Urgency of decision making is needed due to the structural problems of the Latvian economy [rather ominously Latvian president would hold talks with the prominent group of economic experts after the press conference today] as well as due to the ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. As if to prove the speed of decision making in Latvia also the Latvian Parliament started their session early today [listening to the live session of the Saeima on LR], and already with 85 YEA voices passed the constitutional amendments in first reading, while agreeing that those same amendments would be voted in second reading on March 10, 2009. Those are the same constitutional amendments that brought about 650 000 Latvian citizens to the election booths last summer. It seems as if the parliament is in a hurry now to pass all the presidential requirements prior the deadline of March 31 expires, because the parliament plans also to pass the amendments in election law in the third and final reading.


The president already announced that he would decide between the two candidates - Valdis Dombrovskis and Edgars Zalāns. From the experience, skills, merits... and finally from the common sense point of view [you do not trust the party representative who created all this mess!] the president should give Valdis Dombrovskis a chance to form a large coalition government.

The president just came [9:40CET] out with his announcement and common sense still prevails in Republic of Latvia - Valdis Dombrovskis is a new PM nominee!

At the end there was only one...

Photo: Lita Krone (LETA/Diena)

Valdis Dombrovskis nominated other two opposition Civic Union and Society for Another Politics parties as the immediate partners in the upcoming coalition building process. People's Party (PP), Union of Greens and Farmers as well as Fatherland and Freedom Party would be asked to participate in coalition building process, that should together give them 64 vote majority in the hundred member Saeima. According to Dombrovskis he expects the new government to be formed within two weeks. The president announced that he has listened to solid promises from the expected coalition parties to take part in the newly formed government, and if some of the parties would fail to support the future government then it would be the responsibility of those parties themselves, thus basically allowing the president still to stick to the ominous March 31 deadline. The PP behavior was suspicious during last days, and it felt as if they neither want to have the PM post nor want to support the opposition candidate for the PM office. The issue of early elections is still looming above the parliamentarians, and it clashes with the personal interests of certain members of care taking government now. The upcoming two weeks would be hot, and I would not exclude the scenario of the majority of MP's not being able to agree on the Valdis Dombrovskis future cabinet.

Finnish author and cartoonist Jukka Rislaki presented a rather colourful vision of the present Latvian environment. The parliament is discussing amendments in election law right at this moment and while listening to the speeches I am sadly realizing how backward Latvian MP's are. Those issues they discuss now, should have been discussed fifteen years ago. At economically turbulent times, when different fiscal and economic policies should be discussed Latvian MP's are still busy with polity matters, huh, uhhh. Anyway, lai sokas Valdi Dombrovski!

Text in Latvian: [Phoenix] New Government, Phoenix wants to rise from ashes again

Cartoon: Juka Rislaki

P.S. For those of you reading Estonian here is my Delfi piece today.

There will be snap elections in Latvia!

Since January 13, 2009 political events in Latvia are developing very quickly indeed. Riots followed peaceful political demonstration in the Riga Dome square. I was in the middle of the crowd and reported about the events to the Estonian Broadcasting Corporation. Since those ominous events there are plenty of discussions in the Latvian mas media about the causes that took gangs of rioters to the streets. It seems that that governing coalition party members and particularly the speaker of the Saeima do not really understand what is happening outside their power bubble. Messrs. Daudze and Segliņš simply blamed opposition parties for daring to organize demonstration that was attended by some 10-20 thousand peaceful demonstrators. Instead of critically analysing causes for demonstration and riots that followed government members continued to spread their smug announcements until 12:30CET on January 14, 2009.

On this day the Latvian president had a press conference. Upon his return from Strasbourg the previous day the president announced the number of tasks the parliament has failed to deliver, and set the March 31, 2009 deadline for parliament and the government to comply. Rather unexpectedly the president concluded that if the parliament and the government would not be able to deliver this time, then he would use the powers entitled upon him in the Latvian constitutional Art. 48.

The announcement was thus unexpected that the incumbent Minister of Interior announced that president has delivered an ultimatum, and the speaker of the Saeima interpreted the announcement, "that the president is entitled to ask the parliament instead of demanding from it", reminding the public about the omnipotence of the Saeima in the parliamentary republic.

Nevertheless, the events have developed very quickly and since January 17, 2009 the People's Party (TP) announced that they consider president's resolution as too inconsistent, thus demanding the snap elections immediately. Just finished watching the LNT TV program "vox populi" and there also Latvian Transport Supremo announced that he agrees with Mr Segliņš. Furthermore all party representatives that participated in the TV program basically agreed that snap elections in Latvia is the fact now! The only question now is about timing, because the president has announced the March 31 deadline, but at least two coalition members want snap elections right away.

Reasons for TP and LPP/LC parties to have snap elections immediately are rather trivial. In case snap elections would take place immediately, it would mean that they would take place without amendments in election law, that the president has demanded in his January 14, 2009 announcement. Also both parties breached the law in the October 2006 elections, and because of their failure to comply with the election campaign limits both parties owe the state treasury around 2 mlj. EUR.

Tomorrow political parties will hold consultations with the president. Upcoming snap elections is the fact now and the question is whether new parliamentary elections would take place in June 6, 2009 together with the municipal and European Parliament elections or after the summer in early September? Slimming of the government is being discussed and the PM left for Korea leaving the Transport Minister Šlesers as the acting PM. The situation is changing constantly and both coalition and opposition members are testing their tactics prior the triple elections. Elections tactics, retirement of the post soviet political elite and new persons coming into the stagnated political realm in Latvia will be the next topic to discuss about.


P.S. For those of you reading Estonian here is my Postimees article from January 15

P.S. Here in the Estonian Broadcasting Corporation program ``Vabariigi Kodanikud`` I participated on January 16., 2009.

Last session of the parliament

The spring 2008 last session of the parliament is ongoing. As it was predicted before the day for the Lettish talking shop is laborious. President's chancellery had a speech prepared. President reached out to MP's again, asking them to reassess the importance of the anti money laundering and terrorism financing bill. Already prior the bill was discussed in the parliament (on July 16, 2008) the author of ill famous amendments Vilnis - Edvīns Bresis recalled them without any (!) tangible explanation. Also the opposition Reconciliation Centre (SC) did not explain why did their vote AYE on June 11? Just IMAGINE, that with Bresis ill famous amendments he tarnished the reputation of the parliament, prolonged the work of the parliament for additional 1,5 months, and NO explanation came from him at all, what an amateurism!!!. Anyway, the results of the ongoing parliamentary session so far are:

1. Anti money laundering and terrorism bill (acceptable to our European allies) passed with 90 AYE votes.
2. Amendments in the 2008 budget in its final reading passed with 51AYE and 42 NAY votes.
3. KNAB procedure changed after all, thus candidate for the post of Anti Corruption Agency will not be chosen in transparent competition.
4. Half amended election financing law passed (just increasing the legally allowed amount to be spent per voter during elections from 0,20Ls to 0,33Ls). Opposition amendments about third party financing and possible party financing from the state budget should be continued in the autumn 2008 session of the parliament.

That's it and preparation for the August 2 can continue in full swing now!

P.S. You can find all the information about the forthcoming referendum in Latvian here.

Latvian majority MP's love money laundering (updated)

Yesterday Latvian president's harsh evaluation of the Latvian parliament job performance was somewhat surprising. I do not think that incumbent president's words were major factor behind the decision of the Saeima defense, internal affairs and corruption prevention commission to vote down ill famous amendmends of Vilnis - Edvīns Bresis (ZZS) in the Law preventing money laundering and terrorism financing in Latvia. After all the same Saeima commission (J. Dalbiņš, J. Dobelis, A. Latvkovskis, V. Lācis, I. Klementjevs, A. Mirskis, L. Mūrniece, D. Staķe, D. Turlais) already voted down exactly the same amendments prior the previos voting on June 11. Funny enough, regardless of negative voting of the Seaima commission, changes of Mr Bresis stipulated that legalisation of illegal means were suitable to his Godfather in the town of Ventspils, and parliamentary majority gang still voted AYE! If the parliamentary majority gangsta members voted AYE once, I would not be surprised if they would vote AYE again on July 17. Lets wait and see:)

Updated

Latest Eurobarometer poll was just published. As if to prove why Latvian MP's love money laundering and Latvian public is sick and tired of their governing institutions the data is just there! Trust in Latvian Parliament has declined to 12% (-4) support and that puts it in same league with Bulgaria, Lithuania and Italy. Trust for the government has declined to 15%(-4) and that puts it in same league with Italy and Hungary. In comparison Estonian parliament support runs at 36% (-10) and the government at 56% (-6). How strange it is to realize that majority of Latvian citizens still trust institutions of the EU (46%= -4) more than their own institutions. But comparing with the similar results in Estonia (69%=+2) and Lithuania (62% = +3) one should worry about the growing scepticism of Latvian electorate, because it has becoe the most Euro sceptic in the EU today!

The illegally elected parliament in Latvia poisons institutions of the representative democracy in Latvia. Such poisonous acts disorient Latvian electorate and the faster voters will get rid of corrupt MP's the better.

Incompetent legal amendmends during the XXIV Song & Dance festival

I was already writing on June 11 about the amendments in the Law on Prevention of Money Laundering and legalisation of illegal financial funds. According to the press announcements the new amendments had to be presented by July 7. Member of the opposition New Era (JL) party Ms Linda Mūrniece in her blog informs us today, that the most important parts of the law are still changed according to whims of the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) financier from the town of Ventspils, and thus, it still provides a safe heaven for criminals in Latvia.

The law had to be passed by December 12, 2007 because the EU governance requests that the EU directives are to be included into the national legislation within certain time frame but without EU institutions telling the means of achieving it. However, due to to the particular interest groups in the Latvian parliament implementing the demands of the directive into the Latvian legislation was delayed, and finally the ill famous amendments of Vilnis Edvīns Bresis (ZZS) screwed the bill that was discussed for three long years.

Now it is the time to pass the bill the way that it would be acceptable not only to the governing clique, but also to the Saeima opposition parties, the EU institutions, and the EU partner countries. After all the essence of the law is not just domestic political brinkmanship, but foremost preventing Latvia to continue its "fame" of becoming a "black hole" for gangsters, petit criminals and tax evaders. The voting of the Saeima about this ominous law is expected on July 17, 2008, and all this regardless of the festive atmosphere in the XXIV Song&Dance festival. I am just curious whether the incumbent president follows the procedure of passing this bill into law as attentively as he is watching the Song Festival participants?

Will there be rule of law?

After the parliamentary elections in 2006 the Senate of the Supreme Court made a decision (November 13, 2006) that two parties (Peoples party(TP) and Union of Latvian Way and First parties (LC/LPP)) breached the election law. The Court's decision stopped in half way, and it said that the breaches were not as significant as to announce the elections as illegitimate. Opposition parties brought this decision of the Supreme Court to the Court in Brussels, where they lost the case because of its political nature.

Both parties were campaigning through "third parties". "Third party" election financing is a very tricky issue and it is not properly regulated in most European states. Nevertheless, the Anti corruption agency (KNAB) made a decision, that TP & LC/LPP have to pay back monies that exceeded official limits into state treasury. According to KNAB calculations both parties together should repay circa 1,5mlj lats (about 2 mlj euros), that would eventually bankrupt those parties. Both TP and LC/LPP claim that they have not performed any illegal acts, and thus the case is pending in the Administrative Court. Because Administrative courts are overburdened, the case might take years prior the court would pass its final verdict. Also the case might simply expire after thus many years, but illegally elected politicians could continue to enjoy their status of untouchables.

In addition to that, like a snow from the sky, in today's Latvian media LC/LPP party several members came up with a novel idea. The head of Saeima National Security Commission Dzintars Jaunžeikars, for example, openly states, that "LC/LPP party is a different legal entity after its last party congress (January 27, 2007), thus it should not be responsible for anything [including the allegation of breaching the election law] that did the Union of LC/LPP". Legal nihilism par excellence!!!! And all this at a time when statutes of LC/LPP party openly state that the newly founded LC/LPP party is responsible for all the deeds of its predecessors!!!

In Estonia such actions are called JOKK (juriidiliselt on kōik korrektne - in legal terms everything is alright) politics. It is this peculiar post Soviet politics where the same folks pass, change (very often past the date) and implement legal norms. If such tactics of the prime minister's party would succeed it would create a prime precedent for burial of the rule of law in this country, and gradual demise of the state. Short and simple!

P.S. Thus, why do people wonder about folks leaving this country for better life in Western parts of the EU!! When Brussels officialdome and civil society in Latvia Ltd. will finally wake up?

Path dependent thinking

This week there were good news for the maire of Ventspils. After his imprisonment in March 13, 2007 this Latvian minigarch has suffered his calvary and he has been pretty vocal last week. Probably those were humanitarian considerations that made judges to ease his home arrest conditions and allowed him to relocate to his rancho in Puze (Ventspils region). Whatever humanitarian considerations of judges there were, I still do not understand Latvian president, general prosecutor and MP's - why the hell Mr Lembergs is still the Maire of Ventspils? Aye, the most widely used answer given by aforementined authorities is the presumption of his innocence until proven contrary. But for Gods sake, is it not possible to amend those parts of legislature that stipulate that the official who is imprisoned allegedly for serious crimes (misuse of his public office among them), is temporarily removed from his public office until the court verdict being read? After all it also challenges the principle of the law of the state and basıc pillars of democracy!!!

WHATTA HELL those Latvian officials think, that Lembergs has bought all the judicial system and would make a comeback, thus there is no need for his removal from maire of Ventspils office???? To me such wavering inactivity of Latvian officials is a full proof that, if they themselves are short of being involved into shady deals with Latvian minigarchic families, they still do not understand basic principles of European liberal democracy and are thus spitting into face of civil society.

Instead of temporarily removing ''the maire of Ventspils'' from his office the little ''big'' man from Ventspils is given a prime time in the Latvian public TV evening news to carry on with his demagoguery! Common, this man has his own newspaper (www.nra.lv), thus why should such a person be given a cuddly reception after all? In his prime time TV interview and numerous newspaper sketches A. Lembergs has been ranting about almost all members of the Latvian post-independent time political elite. Apart from his lambasting what else did I read from his interviews?

The mind of the ''Maire of Ventspıls'' is wickedly Machiavellian. It is not a problem per se, because the rest of the world countries have their Machiavellian politicanos. However, when other members of society construct the legal system that restrains Machiavellian politicians, then the liberal democracy should work fine. BUT the Latvian problem is that numerous Machiavellian minds (ill famous AAA team) constructed the system for their own enrichment, and throughout the post-independence period they have promoted Orwellian demagoguery telling the public that the system they have created after the independence is liberal democracy (remember Goerge Orwell's Ninety eighty four....war is peace & slavery is freedom)...

Fortunately there is free press and Latvian folks can travel outside the AAA fiefdom, thus starting to doubt whether the traditional discourse promoted by Machiavellian politicians is really true. Unfortunately, there are numerous elderly folks who never had a chance to compare living conditions with ones outsıde Latvia after independence in 1991. Because they simply had and very often still dont have means to travel further than their provincial town, thus they are forced to trust the same crooks over and over again...

The ''small big man from Ventspils'' came out with the idea last Friday (www.nra.lv) that participation of Latvian soldiers in foreign missions is a useless activity. He believes that such missions do not give any tangible results to Latvian soldiers and economy. Lembergs blames Latvian politicians for enriching only NATO member countries treasuries with foreign missions, because according to this demagogue Latvian army must buy German arms, the US vehicles, boots and uniforms...Very conveniently he forgets that experience of foreign missions is essentially important for operational readiness of the small Latvian army. Also Latvia does not produce arms&vehicles, and that also Latvian army uniforms are produced by Latvian prison inmates (perhaps he served his inprisonment in such posh conditions that he never met a inmate...). Mr Lemberg's way of thinking is populist and it is also an example of the kind of path dependent mindset exemplified also by his political buddies in Latvian parliament, government and business.

Thus, the legitimate question at the end of this piece still stands - for how long Latian civil society is ready to endure mockery of liberal democracy by a bunch of self-imposed tricksters??

P.S. Those of you reading in Latvian may find my contemplations in Diena.

Democratic centralism - nurturing culture of irresponsibility

I want to argue that among central problems in Latvia is the Leninist tradition of democratic centralism. While being elected in the Salaspils town council and analyzing speeches and internal debates of Latvian parties I have come to conclusion, that Leninist apects are still very much alive and nurture the governance culture of irresponsibility. Instead of clear cut divisions between right or left, liberal or conservative policies Soviet educated politicians aspire to achieve the majority consensus with Leninist means.

It means that only limited discussions about policy differeces are tolerated in most town councils and parliamentary committees. Decisions are usually made in a narrow circle of party leadership without consulting the party members. Parliamentary debates that would allow to follow policy differences according to ideological lines do not take place in principle. It means that ideological differences in policy areas are not really contested, because nobody wants to find him/herself disfavoured by party elite, maire of the city or the minister. It means that instead of looking for the best possible solution for the problem the majority consensus must be found favouring very much the patriarchal minister, maire of the city or party leader. Dissent is not tolerated and considered as deviance from traditionally accepted norms [even the name for local council head [pagastvecis] reminds one of traditional patriarchy].

While the whole political system depends on the arbitrary will of the "governor" it slowly stagnates and promotes the culture of irresponsibility. My father loves to describe such system of irresponsibility by an old prowerb: "if they[governors] think that they are paying me, let them think that I am also working for them"). Thus, young members of the party are promoted not acording to their merits but subservience instead. And when someone dares questioning the authority of the "governor" he or she is stigmatized.

The method of democratic centralism in governing the party & state stems from V.I. Lenin and interestingly enough it is very much alive in post-Soviet Latvia. The democratic aspect of this method describes the freedom of members of the political party to discuss and debate matters of policy, but once the decision of the party is made by majority vote, all members are expected to uphold that decision. This latter aspect represents the centralism, but Lenin never really discussed problems stemming from policy proposals, because he never questioned his own omniscience. As Lenin described it, democratic centralism consisted of "freedom of discussion, unity of action".(Lenin, V. (1906), Report on the Unity Congress of the R.S.D.L.P.), but he never asked the question - who initiates and forms agenda setting for discussion!?

Very much following the Lenininist method present leaders of Latvian political elite believe that they are omniscient, thus they do not see whether they are provided with correct or false information. Because within parties and government, not merits but subservience is honoured, "Latvian governors" continue living in self - made and promoted power bubble, and consider the information as nuisance when it comes from the Western partners, NGO's or civil society at large.

Only external pressure is able to change such system, because willingly the ruling clique would not give up their welfare even if it should bring the whole state collapsing with them. I guess that such iresponsible playing of Russian rulette have probably made some parliamentary members cautious, and that caused the frictions in opposition parties [JL&TB/LNNK MEP's] to erupt thus forcefully.

In the meantime www.apollo.lv reports today that work of the newly founded Ombudsman office was gruesome but very rich last year. Latvian Ombudsman Romāns Apsītis realized that the state still has a lot to do in order to make Latvian people to understand that also they have their basic rights. Only last year Ombudsman office (Tiesībsarga birojs) was flooded with 5122 petitions. Greatest areas of concern were rights to have a living space (661), rights on fair and due trial (576), good governance issues (441), demand to receive the information from the administration (407), rights on social welfare(335), and finally discrimination (304 ), torture(298),rights on freedom of movement(295), and rights on private property (287). Ombudsman has participated in 98 public events, workshops and seminars, and it shows that citzen's rights issues are still on agenda in Latvia, and only last year every third day of the year Ombudsman ofice had to lecture somwhere to someone in Latvia about their basic rights.

While Estonians and Lithuanians, for example, have their Ombudsman ofice since 1992 and 1994 respectively, Latvian office is in operation since January 2007. Changes in this corruption infected country are slow, but finally they have taken place thus it is possible to pay attention to the real contest between different policy issue areas.

For fostered change and cleaning up of the system there is a dire need for younger generation coming into politics. If they are not going to come, and that is a concern also for the incumbent PM Godmanis, I am afraid soon there will serious questions about sustainability of the sovereign statehood here.

For younger generation to come into Latvian politics PM must follow the omenous inscription above his seat in the cabinet of ministers["nobody is above the law"], and he could start by making a symbolic act. Mr Godmanis could ask his Transport Supremo [A. Šlesers] to take a full responsibility and resign from his office! You may ask why? Because Latvian Post Plc. is mismanaged [the misuse of funds (10mlj. lats) is investigated], State Audit Office discovered misuse of funds developing transit system on Russian-Latvian border [State Auditor Ms Ingūna Sudraba is bringing this case probably to court], and not only Latvian built roads but also roadsigns are the most expensive in Europe [it was noticed and reiterated also by the Latvian president in his 18.11.2007 speech]. If the incumbent PM would not have guts for such a "symbolic gesture", then it would be the confirmation about his utterances in his latest interview [Rīgas Laiks], saying, that it was Transport supremo who asked him [Ivars Godmanis] to go after the PM position...

Neverending...hundred day plan

Latvian government accepted the plan for its first 100 days in the office (http://www.delfi.lv/news/national/politics/article.php?id=20070806). The accepted plan is well structured but dry. There are myriad of tasks and they are neatly subdivided according to specialization, whether they touch questions of governance, economics, national library construction etc. Also questions about the rule of law are among government priorities for the first 100 days in the office. To have the state administration running smoothly government could start from implementing common rules of the game, thus mandatory income and property declaration system should be the first signpost here. The closest example for the PM is not faraway, because inscription "nobody is above the law" (viens likums, viena taisnība visiem) is just above his seat in the cabinet of ministers.

The government is sinking, however, in the sea of neverending tasks. Those tasks are neatly structured but it does not help, because without clear rules of the game for all the participants of the Latvia Ltd. Inc playground, those tasks will never end.

Present servants (minister-servant lat. lang) haven't reached the level of statesmen/women yet, and they do not see the broader picture out of their stacks of papers. Instead of focusing on couple or three strategic tasks government ministers believe that tasks of state administrators are theirs to perform. It is obvious that they cannot cope with minutae tasks (who could, and why is there civil service after all), but instead of solving strategic questions the PM and his retinue hide behind the list of "very serious 100 day program", thus promoting the culture of irresponsibility and fostering depletion of trust in government among citizens.

As if to prove my assumption I peaked into webpage of the Latvian government. On the left side of this page one may notice a pollster asking opinion about the goverment's 100 day program. There is no reference about the issue of the rule of law, and obviously more than 50% of respondents have answered that cooling of Latvian economy is the most urgent task.

Cooling of economy is required indeed, but to cool or heat up economy in the situation of legal nihilism is dangerous because it creates frictions and consequent dissatisfaction in the society. Dissatisfaction about the lack of clear rules of the game is omnipresent and only Allmighty knows, how and where to this government plans to channel this dissatisfaction?

P.S. Radio news just announced that Latvian Ambassador in Moscow Mr Andris Teikmanis is summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and we may expect extradition of Latvian diplomat now. Also, Russian outgoing Ambassador Victor Kaluzhny went to say farewell to the Daugavpils citizens yesterday, but rather clumzily compared possible Kosovo independence as giving precedence to hypothetic Latgale sessesionism from Latvia... .

Et tu Freedom House...

Two days ago it was Heritage Foundation that published data about the decline of Latvian economic freedom by -1 point in 2007(look into Tuesday's blog entry). The report showed that Latvia is gradually lagging behind its Baltic cousins, Estonia and Lithuania. Yesterday Freedomhouse published its 2007 survey and according to this survey Latvia is still free, but in the survey there are words that would make any EU member civil society cautios.

"For 2007, Latvia registered a slight decline due to series of corruption scandals that implicated highranking officials". This is a quote from the Freedomhouse 2007 evaluation report and it should be underlined, that the only Europeans specifically mentioned in the report were Latvia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. The report reflects also the overall mood in Latvian society (remember demonstrations in October and November). Also Latvian pollster SKDS released its report yesterday that was commissioned by the Anti-Corruption Agency in Latvia (KNAB). The report revelead again(!), that most of Latvian state institutions reputation has declined, and the belief that corruption is still omnipresent in state and municipal administration, that fosters also petit corruption thus widespread in traffic police.

Both reports reveal dark sides of Latvian governance and should make any political elite to think about causes for decline of Latvia's credit ratings, negative performance of its administration in the eyes of the public for quite many years in the row, and now also decline of basic freedoms. As soon as the report appeared on pages of liberal Diena and Delfi first comments, probably from "busy" administrators in state institutions, hissed that 'authors of such reports should be changed', thus giving more positive light for Latvian extraordinary success story of last couple of years, to use the language of the incumbent president. Unfortunately the government, the president, parliament, and the legal system in this country are gradually merging into the corporate entity called Latvia Ltd., and it is harder and harder to see substantial balance of powers system here.

Instead of reflecting on quality of its own work, the political elite and their underlings continue to lie to themselves thus promoting the culture of irresponsibility. Living in the power bubble of Jēkaba and Brīvības streets continues, and I am not surprised about hissing of Latvian officialdome about "betrayal" of their good works in style of et tu Brutus...

In May service of the Director of the Latvian Intelligence Agency (SAB) Mr Kažociņš should be evaluated by the parliament, in August tenure of the Head of the Supreme Court Andris Guļāns should finish, and finally in December four years term for the Head of the State Audit Office Ingūna Sudraba should end. It is widely known that these three persons are not really appreciated by the corporation called Latvia Ltd. Mrs Sudraba openly scolded most of ministries and other state institutions for misuse of public funds (so far without any political consequences). Mr Kažociņš is disliked by the top notch politicians because he spent most of his life in Great Britain and Andris Guļāns, probably unwillingly, has given in to the public pressure and revealed that there are problems with corrupt judges.

2008 is in some way omenous year, because future status of the above mentioned officials would also very much determine the future of liberal democracy in Latvia.

Old boys networks forever

The new PM is planning to find the least painful way to return overheated Latvian economy on tracks of sound macroeconomic stability. The PM has announced that regaining the trust of the Latvian public is a priority for achieving such goal. In the meantime his governing coalition partners openly announce that there is no need to worry, because dissatisfaction of broad layers of society according to Mr Brigmanis (the head of the Union of Greens and Farmers parliamentary fraction) is a myth propagated by liberal media (Diena) and Western financiers.

As I already wrote the 2007 was disastrous for the incumbent political elite but also encouraging for the budding Latvian civil society. In January 2008 it is the end of the four year tenure for the Russian outgoing ambassador Mr Kaluzhny. If there should be an award given for the antithesis of the role of an ambassador then the latter could be given to the latter gentelman. Mr Kaluzhny is leaving his tenure and also the job in the diplomatic service of the Russian Federation, nevertheless, it is hard to trust the words of an outgoing ambassador however.

Customarily to the best traditions of the soviet nomenklatura one should not trust words of an official because one could always be called back to the duty of the state to serve its collective God/masters. There are ample of such examples in the post-Soviet space. After Lithuanian presidency (1993-1998) Mr Algirdas Brauzauskas announced that he quits active politics because he wanted to give a chance for younger generation politicians, but he was recalled and served as a PM of Lithuania from 2001-2006. Ivars Godmanis after his bumpy premiership (1991-1993) and subsequent losing of the post as the Minister of Finance in 1999 announced that he would NEVER come back to the active politics, however, Mr BUT (he established such nickname due to response to journalists in early 1990's with his customary conjunction but) is back since December 2007 as a new/old Latvian PM.

Old comrades are networking and their relations are tightly knit. Relations of such old boys networks with Brussels officials are cool due to the lack of networks and very often still the lack of English skills. Thus, it is obvious that old boys networks feel better with their "ideological comrades of faith", and probably it explains why Ivars Godmanis agreed to meet the outging Russian ambassador thus swiftly after his appointment as a new prime minister.

While it is now complicated to find hard evidence about my assumptios of such general knowledge from the present political elite in Latvia it is Mr Kaluzhny who gave his omenous farewell address to the present governing coalition in the Chas (08.01.2008) interview.

"I must compliment premier Kalvītis and the governing coalition during three years of their rule. It was the victory of pragmatism and I am sad that he has left the premiership"

Pragmatism in Latvian - Russian relations was badly needed after all, thats true. The fact that such pragmatic relations are built at the expence of delayed Latvian europeanization, marginalization of the civil society, disregard and often open onslaught on the rule of law, return of the milieu of gangsters shooting on the streets, and finally estrangement from its Western allies is very, very sad, however. Baltic States are perceived as a common regional, economic and sometimes even as a political entity. Such fallout in Latvia, that is always considered as the weakest link among Baltic cousins, endangers international sovereign position of Estonia and Lithuania as well.

Thank you Mr Ambassador for your candid words after all, and I hope that such words would only help to consolidate the civil society in Latvia!

P.S. I started adding my thought in Latvian in Diena from now one from time to time as well.