Latvian development through the eyes of cartoonist - April 2010

While Latvia prepares for the ''hot'' summer electioneering campaign prior autumn elections the mood is country is sombre or some might say even desperate. Noticed today that some smart folks in Russia used my previous blog entries for depicting the mood in Latvia with the help of cartoons. Another commentator quite revealingly concluded that there is enough said about Latvia these days. I cannot agree more... and here you have again a chosen set of fantastically revealing cartoons of Gatis Sluka.

P.S. Because my last entry I finished with the cartoon depicting the theme of roadworks decided to start this set with the same topic. Why? Because while in neighboring Baltic countries the EU funds were used to upgrade their road network Latvian former transport supremo and transport ministers before him were negligent enough, and allowed the Latvian road system to turn into permanent state of disrepair...



[Driving school] And now the toughest task ahead - getting around the potholes!



OPTIMIZATION
1. [Red house] Vocational school for road workers and next to it [greyish house]Technical school
2. [greyish house] ''Pothole fixer'' evening school



Please be so kind - I need something for sclerosis!



CRISIS STAGE





Yiddish Proverb: Don't spit into the well - you might drink from it later...AND Latvian Proverb: Do not cut the tree branch you are sitting on...
[Passer by] It seems that he can do both things at the same time!



Unemployed and destitute folks in front of the Latvian Cabinet November 2009 [GIVE US WORK!]-[Policeman] According to the City of Riga regulations you are not allowed to pitch tents in green area, and you must get rid of them!
LATER GIVE US WORK!



TRANSIT thru Latvia...



And what about me as the youngest son, what would I get? DEBTS!



CASH WITHDRAWAL/DOWN PAYMENT Man with the hat - devaluation of the lat? Other man - illegal payments?



PAREX BANK [Excuse us, but this play shall be staged behind closed curtains!]



HOSPITAL [If you were able to crawl here on your own then do not waste our time!]



[Latvian Economy] or better use ominous term Latvionomics (first designed by Morten Hansen)



[Tax-Ax in ''flesh'' of an economy] But my shadow shall stay forewer!



What are you doing? Social cushion was designed for different purpose [Dombrovskis government prepared in 2009 so called social cushion to alleviate hordes of unemployed]



[Books] How to stay an optimist? How to find a job? Be successful!



1966 - what is going to hapen with you? Astronaut!
2006 - who do you want to become to? A banker!
2010 - interesting, what is going to be your future profession? Debt collector!



[Work] You first! No, you first! Story about the extention of the unemployment benefits...

Do Latvian people really appreciate what they get? (updated)

The EU directorate of economic and financial affairs (ECOFIN) just announced, that the disbursement of EUR 0,5 billion was executed today. This disbursement of money was another part of community assistance within framework of the 7,5 billion loan that should save Latvia from insolvency. Latvian virtual bankruptcy was very much precipitated by reckless and amateurish policies of the right from centre governing coalition (People' s Party, First and Latvian Way Party Union, Union of Greens and Farmers, and Fatherland Party). The present Cabinet of Valdis Dombrovskis is the fifteenth since the Supreme Council of Latvia announced that sovereignty is reestablished within territory of the Republic of Latvia, and it is already more than five years since Latvia is a proud member of the EU. The number of disenchanted voters distrusting major institutions of government is constantly increasing in Latvia. Even more interestingly, the number of folks distrusting the EU is on the rise for last two years. Disenchantment with the governing clique is just one part of the story, but also the increase of poverty and general apathy of the electorate is gradually making Latvian Europeanization unruly. Shame on you AAA team! It is sad that the electorate (40-45% of undecided voters prior elections) has followed these false prophets thus easily so far...




Updated

And as if it is not enough Latvian ill famous AAA team has been open and active today. First, somewhat emulating FDR and his "new deal" the former PM and founder of People"s Party (PP) reached out to the rest of the society looking for social reconciliation. I should not mention all the mess his PP created throughout years (since its foundations in 1996), and Latvian public reflects its opinion about the past deeds not letting the popularity of PP to climb above the threshold needed for entering the parliament for more than two years now. The former PM finally has outlined the program for economic recovery that was long awaited, and one should only skim through the 64 slides of it to understand that there is little substance in there. And as if this would not be enough the former PM proved, that the meeting of the AAA team took place today in Riga. Are those amendments of the election law or the depth of economic contraction that made the AAA team gangsta members to coordinate their acts thus openly and hurriedly these days?

P.S. And here is my article for today's "Postimees"

Present mood in Latvia through eyes of cartoonist

Feelings are rather sombre in Latvia, because the winter is approaching, but the trust between the governed and government has not been really reached. Budget cuts, mismanaged economy, retired people on the verge of bare subsistence, questionably educated politicians and their policies are all reflected in those small, but thus revealing sketches. No words can describe the present situation better than poignant cartoons of Gatis Šļūka. Enjoy them, if you can:)

PENSIONER'S PIERCING

[an official] "You must understand that we all have to tighten belts now". [pensioner with a billboard HANDS OFF FROM PENSIONS] But I cannot afford the belt...

[The Latvian Cabinet] and education, culture, health care, pensions... streams trickling out...




[former PM Godmanis] Most important thing is not to get mad! ( Diena, November 11, 2008, PM Ivars Godmanis: `` we should not exaggerate (...)annual GDP could decline this year by 1,3%``("Nevajag pārspīlēt (..) IK šogad varētu samazināties par 1,3%."))




[Chef] bon appetit! [Former PM Šķēle] I better prefer a bit devalued one (abbreviation of salmon is on the one lat coin)

Milk canisters containing social, VAT, income, despair, small and other taxes. [the tax official with the gimme fast tax] where shall I stick this sucker?

[Angry farmer] Answer me! Why isn't there money in the treasury? [an official] Look, they had the fastest pay rise, get them!

[Saeima - the Lettish parliament] and several sledges in front of it (there is a rather ill ominous story from ancient times about old parents taken with a sledge to forest to die )

[Former PM Godmanis] taken the Latvian state hostage and shouting to IMF officials: "gimme the part of the loan otherwise she is gonna die"!

[official shearer] shearing "people". [another official] "There is no time to waste here, lets get wool with all the skin!"

[One MP to another] "Since the official signature campaign started (campaign of 2008 about the amendments allowing qualified number of MP's to start dissolving the parliament), I see voters in nightmares every night with a whip clutching a cart behind me like for a horse, and whipping me through the Saeima corridors...

THE FOUR YEAR CYCLE OF A LETTISH MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT

1. year - learns basics of Saeima rules

2. year - grabbing or in Latvian colloquial stealing

3. year - preparing for elections

4. year - pre-election fight

[the death] "So, you, old fart, did your minimum pension rise!" [pensioner] "No, no, I am gonna still survive this month"

[plaque - Latvian Saeima] Lettish MP: "I reckon I heard something about the insurmountable ravine between the rulers and the ruled..."

True nature of the Latvian governing coalition

After all the mess what the People's Party together with their coalition buddies (Greens and Farmers, Fatherland Party and Latvian First and Latvian Way Party coalition)have done they do not even have a shame to bring their sickeningly childish games out of Latvia. Just to see the extent of coverage about the PM Valdis Dombrovskis visit to Sweden in today's Swedish press is quite something. But it is not flattering when you have to excuse for or refute sometimes rather harsh statements of the Finance Minister of a neighboring state due to absolutely irresponsible behavior of some government coalition partners.

The People's Party (PP) still has the largest representation in the Latvian literally defunct parliament, but their popularity has for the last half of the year irreversibly sunk under 2% support in the polls. After all the PP is one of the major culprits behind the stalled and continuously postponed structural reforms. Today they are following manners of true gangsters and avoid keeping their promise of introducing the real estate tax, even though they signed the document with the international lenders. There is nothing else to add here and the PP fights for their very survival, but my honest wish is to see the gangsta like PP disappearing from the Latvian political scene the sooner the better.

And here are couple of poignant & appropriate cartoons from Gatis Šļūka.

1. [coalition - orange color of PP and blue color of the New Era party]







MP with the Fatherland Party bag in his hand and piece of PP party wood in his eye pointing to the Lady [New Era party] - you have a splinter in your eye...



I am going to act irrationally if you are going to slash my salary...

Ten thousand teachers, really? (updated)

While government wants to bring about the change Latvian teachers, policemen, professors and the rest of public sector workers wait for news about the planned layoffs. From one ministry I heard confirmation about fifty employees sacked in ten minutes, but it was relatively small one. Huge layoffs should be expected in the most numerous ministries - interior, education, agriculture and finance. While civil servants wait and government work is almost frozen news just came about ten thousand teachers or one third of all Latvian teachers to be laid off by September 1, 2009. This is extreme news, and I would update on this news as soon as I would comprehend this number in comparative terms. Until then the Latvian public must simply survive the increasing rate of unemployment that ratcheted up in the first quarter to the 13,9 % annual rate, because otherwise Zemgus cartoon could turn out to be prophetic.

Text in Latvian: Lowest point of decline is being reached & got to climb up now!

Updated

Numbers I have had hold on are not reliable yet, but political developments have taken their own path. The Minister of Education and former undersecretary of the Ministry Mrs Tatjana Koke just sacked the incumbent undersecretary Mr Mareks Gruskevics.

Quick exit from the sinking ship???

Little by little former political elite members leave their warm places. After resignation of Ivars Godmanis some politicians smoothly retired into the parliament and the two most controversial ones among them. Today Delfi reports that the former head of Latvian border guards Mr Āboliņš "handed" over his letter of resignation to the Minister of Interior. Tomorrow Latvian president must have an announcement about his self-imposed memorandum to the Latvian present political elite. Until the announcement tomorrow at CET 8 pm, and apparently even after the ominous speech, the Latvian political culture should remain puzzling. Day after tomorrow after climbing half way to Everest, tenure of the worst Latvian politician of all times should finally run out.

While some former politicians are forced to retreat, and some others plan to return or rejuvenate [there were two new parties formed last weekend in Latvia - New Latvia & Libertas Latvija], the government of Valdis Dombrovskis tries hard to keep the half sinking Latvia Ltd. afloat. While the Prime Minister and Minister of Finance are hard working and apparently with best intentions I do not believe that it is enough. Magic wands wont work here and the sluggish Latvian Saeima [parliament] serves as a drag on the country's further development. Resignation of Mr Āboliņš is only the tip of the iceberg, because the real "berg" is the multitude of mostly pre-pension age nomenclature members, who serve as shackles for the Republic of Latvia freeing itself from the stagnated and sometimes corrupt networks of closely knit cells of people.

Until the members of parliament and complacent politicians in the state company boards wont learn the lesson that transgressing the law brings punishment, there will be no substantial way out from the present economic meltdown. For civil society trusting the present government there needs to be the possibility to start punishing the People's and Latvian First/Latvian Way union parties for transgressing law, and thus to start from a clean sheet. For that, there is no better mechanism designed in most of industrially developed West than snap elections. For years Latvian politicians have tried to develop "their own bicycle", as the old proverb says in Latvian, while Latvia's Southern and Northern neighbors have relied on emulating the best examples of EU governance. If the current economic and political crisis does not ring the wake up call for the old political class and the President, especially in a time when 65% of Latvian population would happily see the present parliament being sacked, then what would??? About 63,9% of Latvian young people are ready to leave the country permanently, thus I would like to ask: Mr Zatlers do you want Latvia to turn into a home for the elderly?

Text in Latvian: [driver] Hop in! We are taking the same route! [Latvian cyclist] No! Can do it myself!

Cartoon: Gatis Šļūka

Farmers protesting in Riga while transport supremo playing Godfather...(updated)

A week ago farmers promised to arrive to Riga unless their demands would be met. Their demands were not met and they are in Riga today. This time I am following the events from Brussels where I am due to the research project, however you may follow a good photo coverage on farmers camping in Riga downtown here.

Apparently government has met farmers demands about the issue of export subsidies in sum of LVL27mlj. Farmers announced earlier that they would not leave the town until all (!) their demands are met, and the minister of agriculture resigns. The minister of agriculture is not up to his tasks and his performance just makes the prime minister to save his "face" with his palm again...(remember the press conference with the odious minister of finance:)

Prime minister Godmanis and Minister of Agriculture Roze at the press conference about the state of agriculture in Latvia, February 2009

Photo: Delfi

Prime minister saving his "face" wont help this time, because the vote of no confidence expects him tomorrow at the house of parliament . His workaholic habits and inability to delegate responsibilities to the rest of the cabinet are all too well known for years now.

Prime Minister Ivars Godmanis back in 1993

Photo: Apollo

Ivars Godmanis is kept as a poodle in short leash by his alter ego, the minister of transport (note the difference in his education credentials in English and Latvian:), who lives in his own world of nouveau riche glamour and as a true Christian he truly believes in conspiracies. As if farmers protests would not be serious enough, there is a bill prepared in the cabinet that would flush LVL25mlj. into the sphere of religious tourism reports the opposition MP Sandra Kalniete (Civic Union) in her blog today.

Disagreements in the governing coalition are deep, but I would not bet all hundred percent on the fact that the government would receive the vote of no confidence tomorrow. While the Peoples Party (PP) Parteigenosse announced that PP considers the present governing coalition incapacitated five days ago, then yesterday we received Parteigenosse announcement saying that the PP would not vote AYE during the vote of no confidence on the Ivars Godmanis government. Here you have the prime evidence about the present governing coalition key figures' inability to form a single coherent policy within a single week! Why do people wonder about the inefficient communications of the government with the public or about the failed Republic of Latvia for the last couple of years now?

Lets wait for the vote of no confidence tomorrow:)

Updated

Diena just announced that the Minister of Agriculture, Mārtiņš Roze promised to resign to unspecified participants of the farmers protests actions. The government spokesmen Mr Vaikulis asked farmers to leave the town, but nobody knows when exactly the minister of agriculture would resign. The Latvian TV first channel announced that the guest of the the evening 100 pants programme would be Mr Roze, and one could predict his resignation prior this programme or fait accompli announcement during the programme.

The Latvian TV 100 pants emission is over now (its 21.00CET), and Mr Mārtiņš Roze announced that he is resigning from the Minister of Agriculture office, and that he would hand over the letter of resignation to the PM on Wednesday. Rather undiplomatically, while Diena journalists asked about prime ministers future reaction and whether there are any more replacements forthcoming, the PM responded: "as you might have already noticed our ranks are decreasing, we are shot one by one", but all in all, the future situation depends on the vote of no confidence in Saeima on Wednesday. (“kā redzat, mēs paliekam mazāk, mūs pa vienam atšauj”, bet kopumā uzsvēra, ka viss atkarīgs no trešdienas Saeimas balsojuma par neuzticību valdībai.)

P.S. Here is the discussion we had with colleagues on the image EU has among Latvian public today, and how eager the people of Latvia are to take part in democratic governance.

Latvia - its radio silence!

It is Monday moring now. For quite a long time there were heated discussions about the causes of the circa LVL1mlj debt in the Latvian Public Radio (LR). The strangest part of the whole issue is the fact that the National Radio and Television Council (NRTP) is the organization that oversees the work of LR, but they did not notice financial irregularities until the very late (December 2008).

After the investigation being carried out the former director of the LR Mr Semevics resigned. Soon after it was Latvian Transport Supremo, who suggested that the LR could be saved with monies earned from the LVRTC Plc. dividends. Then shady developments started to evolve. First, it was announced that LR needs a new director for solving the critical financial situation. Second, rumours spread that LR and Latvian Public Television (LTV) are not managed properly, that they should be merged, and there are businessman who are interested in buying the LR building in the very heart of Riga - Doma laukums 8. And finally, unexpected candidate was proposed for the post of the LR new general director.

After the election process NRTP rather unexpectedly to the actual head of the council (Abrams Kleckins - Harmony Centre Party) failed to elect the ``unexpected candidate`` and the former LR journalist Dzintris Kolats was elected the new general director of the LR. But the ``unexpected candidate`` was the party mate of the prime minister and transport supremo. Because, what a coincidence (!), the Ministry of Transport and Communication oversees the work of the LVRTC suddenly made the transport supremo to change his mind, and A. Slesers announced that it would be too inefficient to channel about LVL1 mlj. earned from the LVRTC dividends into the LR coffers.

It all lead to the public activism in the center of Riga, and opening of an account where Latvian public could pay their donations in order to support the work of independent and public LR. The staff of the radio is still investigating where did the LVL1 mlj disappear, but most of them also understand that the human resources are used not particularly effectively. Problems of human resources and public finances in the LR would be solved one day. Actually the LR and LTV would have to follow the example of Estonian Public Broadcasting (ERR) in order to cut the expenses of administration. Simply the Latvian MP´s have been too complacent, and the new public broadcasting act has not reached the stage of first reading in the parliament yet. Instead of lawmaking Latvian MP´s play political games, thus private interests of some greedy ministers and political party financiers are paramount to public interests now.

Thus, this morning the LR started with the period of stillness. After national anthem played at 6am, the radio presenter announced ``at the present moment due to the lack of financial resources the LR does not air its 1,2,3,4 programmes, as well as Radio Naba. We apologize our listeners for any inconveniences incurred.``("Šobrīd finansējuma trūkuma dēļ neraida Latvijas radio 1.,2.,3.,4. programma, kā arī Radio Naba. Atvainojamies radio klausītājiem par sagātātajām neērtībām."). For an hour there was stillness in all Latvian radio programmes. According to unspecified sources I heard that the new radio general director hopes on positive outcome from the negotiations with the PM early this week. If the new general director would not be able to reach a deal with the present government, and the government chair is shaking prior the Latvian farmers announced ``manure party`` and governing coalition members at loggerheads, then such periods of stillness on Latvian public airwaves would become customary...

Latvian farmers protesting, and political brinkmanship continuing...

The triple crisis is getting deeper in Latvia and the inability of the the present political class to manage the state affairs becomes visible by hours already. Promises to the political cronies during the era of high economic growth have transformed into the inaccessibility of the ministers and outright smug attitude of the Latvian government.

Just finished watching the Latvian TV 100.pants live interview with two gentlemen representing food processing industry and dairy producer´s association. Both Messrs concluded rather poignantly, that `while the PM understands their problems it is the rest of the cabinet and the civil service that is simply unable to deliver (nespej aiznest vazi no kabineta A uz kabinetu B)`. Both representatives pleaded other social groups not to give in to rumours that are being spread about the `´ungrateful farmers``who´s situation as if should be solved by taking away financial means from pensioners, policemen, teachers, and doctors. Such rumours signify how desperate the present governing coalition is, and also a prime example of the present government living in a power bubble.

Whoever you speak today in this Baltic country recognizes that discontent about the present political class is simply unbearable. Association Sustento, that represents people with physical and mental disabilities, was protesting in front of the government today about the unexpected rise in price of medicines. The teachers trade union threatens the government with strikes, and farmers are becoming really restless. The Farmers Federation and Farmers Parliament(Zemnieku Saeima), two organizations representing farmers in Latvia demanded resignation of the Minister of Agriculture Martins Roze (Union of Greens and Farmers) already half a year ago, but the minister probably forgot to notice it because he was too busy with his other hobbies, and which are long known for the local public in this country. In reality the minister who´s tenure already lasts for six years in a row (since November 2002) failed to defend Latvian farmers in the acquis communautaire negotiations, thus the latter receive the smallest CAP payments in comparison with the other Baltic neighbors.

Thus, farmers are becoming really desperate and it is calculated that unless government does something immediately (help them negotiate bank holidays for a year, establish export credit system, pay the local subsidies within two weeks after signing a contract, provide the EU direct payments until March 31, and providing 2,5% of annual budget payments for agricultural subsidies) about 1500-2000 dairy farms will bankrupt within weeks. In addition to dairy farmers also farmers specializing in wheat and cattle growing are expecting desperate situation within couple of months, thus the demand for the EU direct payments to be paid by the March 31 deadline, because otherwise most of them will fail to sow grain for the next harvest.

You may see the video about farmers activities here, and the following couple of photos from Diena show that farmers are determined to reach their goals. Farmers are relatively free in the winter season, thus they are sticking to their plan to see the government meeting their demands within seven days from today. If government would not meet their demands farmers would start blocking major highways and bring manure to the houses of the parliament and the cabinet.

Prime Minister Godmanis! Do not kill penguins, because who is going to lay golden eggs for you?











I am FOR the Agriculture!

Photos: Uldis Briedis



President Zatlers already gave one deadline for the government and the parliament until March 31, 2009. While government chose two candidacies for the next round to pick the new head of the corruption prevention bureau (KNAB), the parliament has not even started to discuss the amendments in the election law. While the PM first promised to weight the biggest opposition party (New Era-JL) proposal about the apolitical prime minister, then today Mr Goodman changed his mind and announced that JL should forget about taking part in the remodelled government. Party political games continue in the government and many members of the parliament keep representing no one.


While the State Audit Office accused the Latvian Transport Ministry in failing to provide transparent bookkeeping at the RIX airport Mr Slesers in his usual manner asked to glorify his accomplishments in providing cheap flights for the Latvian consumers. While asked about direct accusations about mismanagement at the airport he traditionally counterattacked the journalist and asked to scrutinize behavior of Lithuanian and Estonian airport authorities. Colleague Iveta Kazoka in her blog (in Latvian) described several ways of peaceful disobedience, and also suggested that Latvia could easily live with seventy MP´s instead of one hundred!? The reason is very simple, since November 2006 one third (!) of the Latvian parliament members participated in parliamentary debates less than five times (six of them have not taken a word even once...)...very sad indeed...

Latvian leadership continues to spread contradicting news

Latvian government participates in IMF coordinated negotiation process in securing the loan from the EU Commission. It was the Latvian court jester Slakteris who uttered couple of weeks ago that Latvia Inc needs about five billion euros from the IMF, and if possible would have taken even more... . This Wednesday during the "Kas notiek Latvijā? TV show" the PM specified that required monies would mostly come from the EU Treasury, and that it is the IMF who asked not to disclose the exact loan sum until the negotiation process is over.

Latvian government refused to sell the majority stake in airbaltic.com to SAS last week. Yesterday SAS announced that it would sell remaining 47,2% of the airbaltic stocks to the airbaltic.com management by January 31, 2009. Until now the airbaltic.com is the state company and controls the 52% majority stocks already. These are dire times for SAS, but also not the rosiest times for the Latvian state as the majority stockholder in the company, thus it is something the KNAB and Latvian prosecutors office could actually investigate?

And finally the ministry of finance decided to launch the official Latvian euro website today. The present government plan is to introduce the common currency by the 2012 deadline. Interesting indeed... .

Godmanis government fall approaching and Argentine scenario replicated?

It should be the hottest time for blogging, but it is the end of the year now. Seasons´s Holidays are approaching and also student papers must be graded. Couple of days ago I went quickly to Helsinki and stopped for a night in Tallinn, and upon return learned that Latvian Wonderland continues its downward spiralling into crisis.

Today the administrative territorial reform after `` sixteen years of painstaking work of Latvian MP´s`` culminated in 56 AYE´s and 36 NAY´s in the hundred member parliament (the reform was started in 1992, the Administrative law was passed in 1998, and the new administrative territorial division being finalized today). Partner of the existing coalition, the Union of Greens and farmers (ZZS) voted en masse against the motion, and the only one who voted AYE was the speaker of the Saeima Gundars Daudze. People´s Party genosse Mareks Seglins in his interview to the Latvian TV ``Valsts pirmas personas`` program just announced that ZZS with their vote opened the opposition Harmony centre party a way into the future governing coalition, however, without specifying whether it means the exit of ZZS out of the coalition.

For the present government it is not easy to survive in present circumstances, and today around thousand activists were around the parliament building in Jekaba St. protesting against the territorial reform and parliament´s decision to quadruple the VAT for certain businesses starting from January 1, 2009. As if the exiting problems would not been enough, there was a public pronouncement that would have easily made its author persona non grata just a month ago. Last Friday the Nobel Prize laureate in economics Mr Paul Krugman gave a guest lecture in Stockholm School of Economics. V. Dombrovskis in his blog gives a link, where Paul Krugman openly compared Latvian present economic crisis with the Argentine one in the 1990´s. Argentine was named star pupil of the IMF. While Latvia performed well and IMF closed its office here in 2004, in reality Latvia was not so good pupil of the EU, particularly if we remember how Latvia failed to deliver all the acquis communautaire requirements until May 1, 2004.

The Argentina meltdown and street riots were widely covered in international media. The dynamics of economic meltdown in both countries is reflected in almost identical macroeconomic data. While the Argentine populace in Buenos Aires was openly rioting for weeks, then Riga and other Latvian towns are still calm. The relative calm is faulty however, because the harsh reality is only slowly setting in for the majority of the Latvian population. Until Season´s Holidays there are not many employers who would disclose their actual plans about the downsizing. While talking with rather few acquaintances from the various businesses I learned that most of the bosses want to reveal the ``real news`` after the New Year´s celebrations... .

The January 5, 2009 wake up in Latvia would be rather harsh and I only wish that the Greek youth calls for pan - European protests would not be followed by similar actions in biggest towns in Latvia, huh, uhh. It is hard to predict exactly how the developments would evolve. However, sporadic pickets in front of the parliament, continued smugness of the PM, and rising unemployment allow me to predict that it will be extremely hard for the government to keep the relative calm in this tiny Baltic republic.

Program for getting Latvia out of the economic malaise

The program for getting the Latvian state out of the crisis was published last weekend. The short document deals only with minor changes in fiscal policy and strengthening of the regulatory oversight, and only half a page or ten points of it is devoted to the policy proposals for reinvigorating the stalled economy. The tax on capital earning is planned for 2010 only, and the quadrupling of VAT from 5 to 21% would detrimentally affect hotel and publishing industries. Pēteris Cedriņš in his blog revealingly argues about the "Latvian yoke" that could even extinguish the Latvian language publishing as an industry.

With present odious leaders there is no chance that such a program could be effectively implemented. In addition to that, if this is the "serious program" that makes Swedish Finance Minister to trust the Latvian government in its present task to secure billions from the Western governments and financial institutions, then I could easily call myself a pope... . In reality government's position paper on securing billions still does not answer two basic questions - how much they plan to borrow, and how earmarked these money transfusions will be? One may ask what alternatives I see here? An answer is simple - snap elections and bipartisan approach that should follow in order to lead the country out from the present economic malaise! Latvian president has the power to initiate sacking of the parliament but he has not made up his mind yet, while support for the Latvian government and parliament has irreversibly sunk under 10% margin.

In order to put the problems of present economic crisis in a nutshell decided to use the same format as I used already in my previous blog entry. This time to go through the chronology of events I used some poignant Gatis Šļūka cartoons from Delfi, and translated them.

Text in Latvian: The US crisis [Kalvītis: We should expect seven fat years!]

Text in Latvian: Budget [Probably I would have to cut a piece again in the middle of Winter]

Text in Latvian: Shriek about budget

Text in Latvian: Latvian state [Back seated Transport Supremo - full speed forward! Goodman - safety cushion was too fragile after all...]

Text in Latvian: Goodman - thus, while we discuss the cooling economy...; Cabinet member - we invited also couple of experts!

Text in Latvian: Latvian economy [Goodman with the Court Jester Slakteris - What now? To cool or heat it up?]

P.S. For those of you who read Estonian here is a piece I wrote for Postimees today.