LETA just announced that Fatherland Union (TB/LNNK) nominated Einārs Cilinskis declined the offer and would not become the Minister of Economics in the government of Aigars Kalvītis (People's Party). The announcement most probably reflects yesterdays speculations about the fact, that he was nominated in return for positive TB/LNNK vote en bloc against Mr Loskutovs in Saeima tomorrow. This is just a first crack in the governing coalition, but it could lead to the positive voting outcome in Saeima after all. "Waking up" of TB/LNNK is too late and pollsters show that they have no chance to cross the parliamentary threshold if elections should take place today. Thus, was the TB/LNNK tactics to wait till the public opinion boils over and then come as saviours in hitting the last nail into government's coffin, thus earning additional brownies? Dont know, but late the announcement came.
If TB/LNNK decision to recall their Minister of Economics nominee is coordinated party decision then it shows, that there are splits within TB/LNNK. It means that in tomorrow's voting process one cannot arithmetically subtract 8votes from 59 member majority in the parliament. Also two members of the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS), Messrs Visvaldis Lācis and Leopolds Ozoliņš cannot be counted. The first one announced that he would vote against suspension of Mr Loskutovs, and the second member of ZZS is on sick leave. After Madam Ambassador speech yesterday it was People's Party member Vaira Paegle who behaved diplomatically, thus could also she abstain from brainless rock solid governing coalition behaviour?
Diena editor Sarmīte Ēlerte has called citizens to come to the Saeima building and follow the voting procedure of Latviam MP's tomorrow. I am definitely going and perhaps there will be more folks than during passing the budget in the first reading. Only God knows whether government might fall after slight possibility of aborted vote of suspending Mr Aleksejs Loskutovs from the position of the head pf the Anti Coruption Agency?
UPDATED
LETA announced (11:00 CET) that President Valdis Zatlers considers the decision of the government as too harsh and that puts the head of Latvian government under severe test(http://www.apollo.lv/portal/news/72/articles/111314). The incumbent president called up MP's to vote in tomorrow's vote of no-confidene reasonably, thus serving interests of all voters, and not just few chosen ones. I hope that the president understands consequences of his statement, because abortive vote of no-confidence would authomatically mean the fall of the existing government. The latest data of SKDS pollster shows that 62,1% of population does not trust the government and the 65,6% definitely harangue about the work of the parliament. http://www.delfi.lv/news/national/politics/article.php?id=19234167
Disagreements in the governing coalition are becoming louder, and I would not be surprised, if there would be even more members of the governing coalition deciding to leave the sinking ship today (wondering, what is my classmate, Minister of Justice Gaidis Bērziņš still contemplating:). What else should the passangers of the delapidated Ms Latvia expect, when the captain (the PM) has left the ship actually for an informal meeting of the EU heads of states?? The end of the governing coalition is approaching and I hope that the incumbent president Valdis Zatlers would have so much willpower as to disband the parliament after resignation of the existing government!
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Return to square one
The October 16, 2007 is over, and it would stay in the modern history of Latvia as a formative day. From the point of view of the long term Latvian state development events were positive, nevertheless, the most ironic assumption from the omenous October 16 is that Latvia in its development has returned to the point where all started in 1991. First, it was the speech of the US ambassador Mrs Catherine Todd Bailey in the University of Latvia "Preserving Our Common Values" (http://riga.usembassy.gov/EN/site/embassy/rel20071016). Second, the government contrary to my predictions almost unanimously (with one minister abstaining) decided to suspend the head of the Anti Corruption Agency (KNAB), Mr Alekejs Loskutovs from his duties. Third, to continue his "home made" governance style the PM "suddenly" decided that he needs the minister of economics after all (absolutely contradicting his public statement just a couple of weeks ago). Thus, he decided to accept the Fatherland Union (TB/LNNK) party nominanted member for this post Mr Einārs Cilinskis. And finally, as a response to todays events there was literally uproar of journalists, experts and pundits. Just to quote revelations from the interview of the Head of the Foreign Policy Institute Mr Atis Lejiņš to the Latvian Radio after Madam Ambassadors's speech, "that Latvia is ruled by couple of tyrants without any democratic accountability" is enough to understand that the government is considered illegitimate among liberal cirles in Latvia. To read a report by Aaron Eglitis ( http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aE30OVAfRtgE) one may read in a nutshell how the US side considers present problems in this tiny Baltic republic. Therefore in the following entry I want to specifically discuss the Mrs Todd Bailey speech from a broader international politics perspective, and I shall also try to envisage the next possible scenarios for Latvian government behavior.
At first glimpse such row of events in traditionally sleepy country might seem extraordinary. But they seem not so, if one folows news starting from the last parliamentary elections in October 2006. Fraudulent elections were subsequently continued with hasty security organisations law changes at the last day of the year, unexpected veto of these laws by the former president Vaira Vīķe Freiberga, arrest of the maire of Ventspils, election of corrupt doctor as a president of the state, release of the maire of Ventspils from prison and puting him under house arrest, stepping down of the speaker of the parliament due to corruption charges and finally hasty election of the anesteziologist and Maire of Ventspils party member as the new speaker of the parliament.
Such a row of events is quite significant for a small country and would probably make any European state citizenry to the West of Latvia to be out on streets and demanding resignation of the political elite en toto. Latvia is a post Soviet state and has not developed basic machanisms of civil society, thus majority of society is happy for the little they have. The majority of society has not learned to value their liberty and assume it as simply given and not hardly fought for and highly regarded treasure. Empowering the civil society is one of the tasks of political parties (Dahl, Duverger and others), but this task has been absolutely negleted in Latvia (to read latest UNDP reports). I do not want to blame only political elite here because intelligentsia with its traditional East European smug attitude about the governing circles is as responsible for the apathy of Latvian citizenry. We may witness the situation today, when the governing coalition has compreended that their power is absolute and they have ceased to follow basic principles of liberal democracy - respecting the rule of law and involving themselves in constrctive dialogue with the political oposition. In situation when parliament has turned itself into rubber stamp of the governing coalition and when constitutional norms are openly disregarded it was obvious that the Ambassador of the United States came out with her speech at the University of Latvia.
Mrs Todd Bailey was reaching out to the young generation of Latvians and subtly noted that its the Latvian people who must participate in travails of their democratic state. The US government is a world hegemon and it has global responsibilities. Thus, fostering democratic changes in different areas of the globe would sound utterly wrong if another NATO ally would be run without any regard to the common values. The speech of Madam Ambassador was concise, and the bottom line was the pronouncement of the new approach of the US transformational diplomacy as I was expecting it in my yesterday's blog entry:
" SECRETARY RICE DEFINED TRANSFORMATIONAL DIPLOMACY, AS "WORKING WITH OUR MANY PARTNERS AROUND THE WORLD, TO BUILD AND SUSTAIN DEMOCRATIC, WELL-GOVERNED STATES THAT WILL RESPOND TO THE NEEDS OF THEIR PEOPLE AND CONDUCT THEMSELVES RESPONSIBLY IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM." SHE ADDED THAT "WE SEEK TO USE AMERICA'S DIPLOMATIC POWER TO HELP FOREIGN CITIZENS BETTER THEIR OWN LIVES AND TO BUILD THEIR OWN NATIONS AND TO TRANSFORM THEIR OWN FUTURES."
The US policymakers have realized fuzziness of the sovereignty concept. Former head of the State Department Political Planning Division Mr Stephen Krasner was a renown scholar of the Stanford University and his book "On Sovereignty" is a bestseller. In this book he elaborates about the distinctive character of the sovereignty concept starting from inception of the modern state system after the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648. The three basic characters of sovereignty are following: a) international legal sovereignty; b) Westphalian or Vattelian inviolability of rights of sovereign; c) domestic sovereign crediblity. While the principles a and c are not really at stake in Latvian case, then the Westphalian/Vattelian inviolability of rights concept is reassessed in many parts of the world today. The first case was Kosovo followed by Rwanda, and we still face the issue of Darfur today.
The US government after the end of the Cold War is the global hegemon and it is able to impose its soft power because it has hard power capacity. The EU would like to equal with the US but Europeans lack hard power, and in the undemocratic world the precepts preached by soft powers are not really listened to if there is no back up of the hard power. Thus, the speech of the Madam Ambassador today in the University of Lavia falls very well in line with the new style of diplomacy the US is trying to implement globally. It was the speech of the US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice who first uttered the "Transformational Diplomacy" in her speech at the University of Georgetown in 2006 for the fist time, and those of you interested in the basic principles of the transformational diplomacy may find that speech at: http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2006/59306.htm.
In the meantime Latvian politicians live their own life and it seems that the riches coming from the EU funds have made them immune even to common sense. So, the PM bureau chief, who ironically happens to be also the former ambassador to the United States , Mr Māris Riekstiņš in the name of the prime minister demanded clarifications from the US embassy about the statement, "as if calling people to the strets to overthrow legally elected government", in Madam Ambassador's speech (http://www.delfi.lv/news/national/politics/article.php?id=19230017). Either PM has gone mad or he really believes in his omnicience when he openly announced that Latvian government after ambassador's speech might reasess relations between the two states (tas būtu jauns pavērsiens divu valstu attiecībās")? And all this prior the planned trip of the Latvian PM in November to Washington???
Whatever is the mental health of the PM Latvian governance cannot improve with such crooked politicanos. The mandatory tax and property declaration system, the very system that the PM promised to introduce as of January 1, 2008 was postponed last week, because the head of the Saeima Budget Committee Kārlis Leiškalns (People's Party member and former barman) announced that there are still huge inconsistencies for implementing it. Common, it is just ludicrous! One must simply hook up the land, car and real estate registers with the cetral data base of the Internal revenue service and the system can work. For this to hppen there is political will needed, that has never existed among the elites of the post independence Latvia, unfortunately.
Thus, what could be next moves of the present governing coalition? It is a hard question and there are no easy answers. Contrary to my intuitions PM did not even think twice and continued to play hard, thus it leads me to reckon that the vote of no confidence suspending Mr Loskutovs from the post of the KNAB could be successful this Thurday in ribberstamp Saeima. In case the governing coalition does not act as one pack and oust Mr Loskutovs, it would immediately trigger collapse of the government the event that eventually would lead to snap elections. After firing Mr Loskutovs the next person could possibly be the Head of the Supreme Court Mr Andris Guļāns, because last week there were news about dirty deals of his son in http://www.apollo.lv/ and http://www.delfi.lv/ . Prosecuotr Genaral is too cautios person and his timidity is understandable.
All in all, the government has painted itself into the corner and it may leash out against anyone anytime, exactly like against Mr Edgars Gulbis who mysteriously found himself in the autumny river Daugava right out of the hands of the police convoy. Lattelecom privatiation deal must be finalized, and after that insider of the Peoples Party said to me that appetite of master manipulator Mr Šķēle should be satisfied. I somehow believe that such contemplations are wishful thinking because the appetite grows infinitely, especially among those who have been enriching themselves free of charge and without any punishment all these years.
Latvian citizens have returned to square one. Laborious work of sixteen and a half years would be in shambles if citizens would stay apathetic and passive, therefore, there must be someone either from opposition parties or intelligentsia who would concentrate dissatisfied people around one power centre and start challenging the governing gang of crooks in Latvia.
At first glimpse such row of events in traditionally sleepy country might seem extraordinary. But they seem not so, if one folows news starting from the last parliamentary elections in October 2006. Fraudulent elections were subsequently continued with hasty security organisations law changes at the last day of the year, unexpected veto of these laws by the former president Vaira Vīķe Freiberga, arrest of the maire of Ventspils, election of corrupt doctor as a president of the state, release of the maire of Ventspils from prison and puting him under house arrest, stepping down of the speaker of the parliament due to corruption charges and finally hasty election of the anesteziologist and Maire of Ventspils party member as the new speaker of the parliament.
Such a row of events is quite significant for a small country and would probably make any European state citizenry to the West of Latvia to be out on streets and demanding resignation of the political elite en toto. Latvia is a post Soviet state and has not developed basic machanisms of civil society, thus majority of society is happy for the little they have. The majority of society has not learned to value their liberty and assume it as simply given and not hardly fought for and highly regarded treasure. Empowering the civil society is one of the tasks of political parties (Dahl, Duverger and others), but this task has been absolutely negleted in Latvia (to read latest UNDP reports). I do not want to blame only political elite here because intelligentsia with its traditional East European smug attitude about the governing circles is as responsible for the apathy of Latvian citizenry. We may witness the situation today, when the governing coalition has compreended that their power is absolute and they have ceased to follow basic principles of liberal democracy - respecting the rule of law and involving themselves in constrctive dialogue with the political oposition. In situation when parliament has turned itself into rubber stamp of the governing coalition and when constitutional norms are openly disregarded it was obvious that the Ambassador of the United States came out with her speech at the University of Latvia.
Mrs Todd Bailey was reaching out to the young generation of Latvians and subtly noted that its the Latvian people who must participate in travails of their democratic state. The US government is a world hegemon and it has global responsibilities. Thus, fostering democratic changes in different areas of the globe would sound utterly wrong if another NATO ally would be run without any regard to the common values. The speech of Madam Ambassador was concise, and the bottom line was the pronouncement of the new approach of the US transformational diplomacy as I was expecting it in my yesterday's blog entry:
" SECRETARY RICE DEFINED TRANSFORMATIONAL DIPLOMACY, AS "WORKING WITH OUR MANY PARTNERS AROUND THE WORLD, TO BUILD AND SUSTAIN DEMOCRATIC, WELL-GOVERNED STATES THAT WILL RESPOND TO THE NEEDS OF THEIR PEOPLE AND CONDUCT THEMSELVES RESPONSIBLY IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM." SHE ADDED THAT "WE SEEK TO USE AMERICA'S DIPLOMATIC POWER TO HELP FOREIGN CITIZENS BETTER THEIR OWN LIVES AND TO BUILD THEIR OWN NATIONS AND TO TRANSFORM THEIR OWN FUTURES."
The US policymakers have realized fuzziness of the sovereignty concept. Former head of the State Department Political Planning Division Mr Stephen Krasner was a renown scholar of the Stanford University and his book "On Sovereignty" is a bestseller. In this book he elaborates about the distinctive character of the sovereignty concept starting from inception of the modern state system after the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648. The three basic characters of sovereignty are following: a) international legal sovereignty; b) Westphalian or Vattelian inviolability of rights of sovereign; c) domestic sovereign crediblity. While the principles a and c are not really at stake in Latvian case, then the Westphalian/Vattelian inviolability of rights concept is reassessed in many parts of the world today. The first case was Kosovo followed by Rwanda, and we still face the issue of Darfur today.
The US government after the end of the Cold War is the global hegemon and it is able to impose its soft power because it has hard power capacity. The EU would like to equal with the US but Europeans lack hard power, and in the undemocratic world the precepts preached by soft powers are not really listened to if there is no back up of the hard power. Thus, the speech of the Madam Ambassador today in the University of Lavia falls very well in line with the new style of diplomacy the US is trying to implement globally. It was the speech of the US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice who first uttered the "Transformational Diplomacy" in her speech at the University of Georgetown in 2006 for the fist time, and those of you interested in the basic principles of the transformational diplomacy may find that speech at: http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2006/59306.htm.
In the meantime Latvian politicians live their own life and it seems that the riches coming from the EU funds have made them immune even to common sense. So, the PM bureau chief, who ironically happens to be also the former ambassador to the United States , Mr Māris Riekstiņš in the name of the prime minister demanded clarifications from the US embassy about the statement, "as if calling people to the strets to overthrow legally elected government", in Madam Ambassador's speech (http://www.delfi.lv/news/national/politics/article.php?id=19230017). Either PM has gone mad or he really believes in his omnicience when he openly announced that Latvian government after ambassador's speech might reasess relations between the two states (tas būtu jauns pavērsiens divu valstu attiecībās")? And all this prior the planned trip of the Latvian PM in November to Washington???
Whatever is the mental health of the PM Latvian governance cannot improve with such crooked politicanos. The mandatory tax and property declaration system, the very system that the PM promised to introduce as of January 1, 2008 was postponed last week, because the head of the Saeima Budget Committee Kārlis Leiškalns (People's Party member and former barman) announced that there are still huge inconsistencies for implementing it. Common, it is just ludicrous! One must simply hook up the land, car and real estate registers with the cetral data base of the Internal revenue service and the system can work. For this to hppen there is political will needed, that has never existed among the elites of the post independence Latvia, unfortunately.
Thus, what could be next moves of the present governing coalition? It is a hard question and there are no easy answers. Contrary to my intuitions PM did not even think twice and continued to play hard, thus it leads me to reckon that the vote of no confidence suspending Mr Loskutovs from the post of the KNAB could be successful this Thurday in ribberstamp Saeima. In case the governing coalition does not act as one pack and oust Mr Loskutovs, it would immediately trigger collapse of the government the event that eventually would lead to snap elections. After firing Mr Loskutovs the next person could possibly be the Head of the Supreme Court Mr Andris Guļāns, because last week there were news about dirty deals of his son in http://www.apollo.lv/ and http://www.delfi.lv/ . Prosecuotr Genaral is too cautios person and his timidity is understandable.
All in all, the government has painted itself into the corner and it may leash out against anyone anytime, exactly like against Mr Edgars Gulbis who mysteriously found himself in the autumny river Daugava right out of the hands of the police convoy. Lattelecom privatiation deal must be finalized, and after that insider of the Peoples Party said to me that appetite of master manipulator Mr Šķēle should be satisfied. I somehow believe that such contemplations are wishful thinking because the appetite grows infinitely, especially among those who have been enriching themselves free of charge and without any punishment all these years.
Latvian citizens have returned to square one. Laborious work of sixteen and a half years would be in shambles if citizens would stay apathetic and passive, therefore, there must be someone either from opposition parties or intelligentsia who would concentrate dissatisfied people around one power centre and start challenging the governing gang of crooks in Latvia.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Comic continued?
Return back from the Mediterranean coast was peaceful and I found that there were no substantial events taking place in Latvia. My predictions about 3 to 5 thousand trade union representatives was overtly optimistic, because only 1500 showed up. In the meantime official statistics showed that Latvian schools miss 457 teachers and about 900 policemen/women are not on duty this year. There is not exact data about missing medical personell but my own aunt (who happens to be a nurse at the Stradina Hospital in order to earn extra to her pension) omenously warned me not to happen to be taken to the hospital on Friday, bacause there are slight chances of dying due to unattentiveness during the weekend when there are no doctors on duty...
Tomorrow is significat day in Latvia because it might draw a line of no return for the present governing coalition. Prosecutor general announced today that the Head of the Anti Corruption Agency Mr Loskutovs has not breeched his mandate and should not be fired, BUT, that a decision of pardoning/firing he left into hands of PM. PM already announced that Mr Loskutovs must go and his conviction was underlined by his old time chum Mr Dzintars Janudzeikars (First Christian Party). The latter happened to squeeze into parliament due to his party member becoming a minister, and thus he was quickly voted to become the head of the Saeima Commission of Internal Security affairs. But the talk is not about the old boys network here, but about another event taking place in Riga on the same day.
The Ambassador of the United States in Latvia Mrs Todd Bailey will deliver lecture in the University of Latvia about the transformative diplomacy principles, the ones that State Secretary Condoleeza Rice elaborated for the first time at the University of Goergotown speech in 2006. The radical Latvian media already tried to announce that the speech is intrusion of Americans in Latvia's domestic affairs. However, the same radical media does not even try to comprehend that the governance style of the ruling coalition gave a cause to Madam Ambassador to deliver such speech on such an omenous day. It is only obvious, that on the day when government of the NATO ally plans to disregard one of the basic principles of a liberal democratic regime - respect of the opinion of opposition in matters of constitutional norms, thus undermining the democratic regime itself - leading member of the defense alliance tries to reiterate, while only in academic format, that same principles Latvian government agreed on prior omenous events in 2004, still oblige Latvian government to behave as a respectable partner in the family of democratic states. It is a probably not a coincidence that the Ambassador of the United States must come up with such a speech in times of domestic turmoil in Latvia. But in the meantime it is a shame that Latvian political elite has returned to the Soviet practices of governance just three years after accession of this country to the NATO and the EU. Even former president of Latvia Madam Vike Freiberga dimplomatically announced today that the US ambassador would probably deliver speech which she would reccommend to several members of the present political elite. Thus, shall the words be heard tomorrow and tactical backup movement made, thus saving face of Latvia in front of our Western partners?
My isntincts tell me that the decision about removal of Mr Loskutovs from the office shall be postponed, and it would probably be announced in the official press statement, that there was a lack of evidence or similar phony excuse. However, in the long run it would not save Mr Loskutovs from loosing his job, because while openly confronting the US ambassador would be foolish tactics, then removiong him later would still fullfill the initial plan of saving many crooks' skin. The key of change is Latvian citizenry! Thus, the speech of the Madam Ambassador should be taken as a certain signal for citizens to foster establishment of participatory democracy rather than a hint for regime change. Shall wait for the news, because 16th of October could serve as a formative event for return of the present 'sovereign democracy' into the framework of liberal democracy and rule of law where actually nobody is above the law. Fingers crossed mates!
Tomorrow is significat day in Latvia because it might draw a line of no return for the present governing coalition. Prosecutor general announced today that the Head of the Anti Corruption Agency Mr Loskutovs has not breeched his mandate and should not be fired, BUT, that a decision of pardoning/firing he left into hands of PM. PM already announced that Mr Loskutovs must go and his conviction was underlined by his old time chum Mr Dzintars Janudzeikars (First Christian Party). The latter happened to squeeze into parliament due to his party member becoming a minister, and thus he was quickly voted to become the head of the Saeima Commission of Internal Security affairs. But the talk is not about the old boys network here, but about another event taking place in Riga on the same day.
The Ambassador of the United States in Latvia Mrs Todd Bailey will deliver lecture in the University of Latvia about the transformative diplomacy principles, the ones that State Secretary Condoleeza Rice elaborated for the first time at the University of Goergotown speech in 2006. The radical Latvian media already tried to announce that the speech is intrusion of Americans in Latvia's domestic affairs. However, the same radical media does not even try to comprehend that the governance style of the ruling coalition gave a cause to Madam Ambassador to deliver such speech on such an omenous day. It is only obvious, that on the day when government of the NATO ally plans to disregard one of the basic principles of a liberal democratic regime - respect of the opinion of opposition in matters of constitutional norms, thus undermining the democratic regime itself - leading member of the defense alliance tries to reiterate, while only in academic format, that same principles Latvian government agreed on prior omenous events in 2004, still oblige Latvian government to behave as a respectable partner in the family of democratic states. It is a probably not a coincidence that the Ambassador of the United States must come up with such a speech in times of domestic turmoil in Latvia. But in the meantime it is a shame that Latvian political elite has returned to the Soviet practices of governance just three years after accession of this country to the NATO and the EU. Even former president of Latvia Madam Vike Freiberga dimplomatically announced today that the US ambassador would probably deliver speech which she would reccommend to several members of the present political elite. Thus, shall the words be heard tomorrow and tactical backup movement made, thus saving face of Latvia in front of our Western partners?
My isntincts tell me that the decision about removal of Mr Loskutovs from the office shall be postponed, and it would probably be announced in the official press statement, that there was a lack of evidence or similar phony excuse. However, in the long run it would not save Mr Loskutovs from loosing his job, because while openly confronting the US ambassador would be foolish tactics, then removiong him later would still fullfill the initial plan of saving many crooks' skin. The key of change is Latvian citizenry! Thus, the speech of the Madam Ambassador should be taken as a certain signal for citizens to foster establishment of participatory democracy rather than a hint for regime change. Shall wait for the news, because 16th of October could serve as a formative event for return of the present 'sovereign democracy' into the framework of liberal democracy and rule of law where actually nobody is above the law. Fingers crossed mates!
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Incompetent governance continues
I am back from Brussels and leaving for Istambul tomorrow. Its busy time now with increased amount of work at the university. My blog entries shall be scarse this month due to work schedule, and to be honest - there is nothing new to utter due to the deeply entrenched incompetence of the present government of Latvia. Opinions among general public about the performance of the existing government range from one extreme, calling in the US government to simply overthrow the incumbent politicanos, to another, saying that the the accused maire of Ventspils should be elected as a prime minister to solve all the problems with his 'magic hand`. The Kas notiek Latvija? TV show just ended where politicians discussed with experts, trade union and employers confederation representatives the budget for the 2008 fiscal year, which the rubber stumping parliament without any discussions passed in the first reading this Monday.
The way the governing coalition acts does not seem even irresponsible anymore, but simply careless. Carelessness is omnipresent among numbers of blue collar workers and ´hard working politicians' who simply make their life easier with increased amount of alchohol consumption. Apathy prevails among the liberal circles of the society, and the feeling of helplesseness is in the air. Trade unions shall protest tomorrow in front of the Latvian parliament, and it is going to be interesting to see the actual number of protesters ( between 3 and 5 thousand participants I presume). Is the spell of general oblivion going to be broken, or virtual welfare and tranquility shall back burn until the hard landing of the economy sets in? Sad, very sad....And personally lightening up my sad contemplations by going to the sunny Mediterranean coast of Turkey.
The way the governing coalition acts does not seem even irresponsible anymore, but simply careless. Carelessness is omnipresent among numbers of blue collar workers and ´hard working politicians' who simply make their life easier with increased amount of alchohol consumption. Apathy prevails among the liberal circles of the society, and the feeling of helplesseness is in the air. Trade unions shall protest tomorrow in front of the Latvian parliament, and it is going to be interesting to see the actual number of protesters ( between 3 and 5 thousand participants I presume). Is the spell of general oblivion going to be broken, or virtual welfare and tranquility shall back burn until the hard landing of the economy sets in? Sad, very sad....And personally lightening up my sad contemplations by going to the sunny Mediterranean coast of Turkey.
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Comic a'la Lettonie
Since the spring turmoil, when former president Vīķe - Freiberga vetoed stipulations in security laws, Latvian PM decided not to come to direct TV interviews. He realized that his popularity ratings have collapsed, thus is giving only selective interviews. Several experts (Aigars Freimanis from Latvijas Fakti polling firm being most prominent among them) noticed that PM does show signs of fatigue. The PM has tried to hide acusations about his tiredness (but TV cameras rather often found him sleepin during government sessions), but today his indifference became public. The header of biggest rural daily Latvijas avīze reads - "if all collapses, thus Gundrs Bērziņš should come instead of me" ("Ja vadzis lūzīs, lai nāk Gundars" http://www2.la.lv/). Gundars Bērziņš is trusted leutenant of Mr Šķēle and graduate of the Agricultural University Mechanisation faculty (also former PM Šķēle and Minister of Defense are graduates of the same faculty). Such announcement very much reveals the decision making process within political elite. It is not the party caucus, or collegial body of coalition government, but the founder of the party who gives directions and his ministers sic leutenants must follow orders.
The order is being made to refresh the facade f the existing government, thus next week the government would step down, finally, huh, huh!! The most arkward fact, however, is that servants of the country (ministere - to serve in Latin) missinterpret their mandate. But here not only Latvia is to be blamed, because most of the countries executives desperately hold to their power. The issue now in Latvia is about the strategic move however, and the new premiership of Gundars Bēziņš cannot privide Latvian economy with fresh strategy out of abyss, he can get it only deeper in coul de sac due to his qualifications. Therefore my standpoint is that a proposed premiership of Gundars Bērziņš would only aggravate existing grudges among governing gang members. The head of the Free Trade Union Association Pēteris Krīgers announced yesterday, that they would demand offficial dismisal of Saeima in October 17 while meeting with president Zatlers. The October 17 is oficial UNO day of fight against poverty, and according to Latvian constitution only president is entitled to initiate the process of dismissing the parliament. Thus, in theory all previously mentioned factors could foster snap elections as I predicted couple of weeks ago already.
In the meantime the Anti-Corruption Agency (KNAB) is put on slow motion death row, and afer Kas notiek Latvjā? TV show heads of Police and Interior Ministry appeared contradictory and not up to their task. What I read from their announcements that it is not only dauble game, but several games simultaneously are played in order to save some crook's skin or enable continuation of holding to power. Columnist of the daily Diena Aivars Ozoliņš is excellently poignant today. He has condensed the existing situation of Latvian virtual rule of non-entity ministers into a nutshell. Those of you reading Latvian can enjoy fullness of Mr Ozoliņš article in http://www.diena.lv/. But "Varētu pasmieties par de Vaškēviča, fon Kalvīša, sera Ivara un citu plānā galdiņa bruņinieku ampēlēšanos, kurai neviens vairs netic..... Tā diemžēl nav pasaka, my quick translation for the rest of the world is: "we could laugh about De Vaskevics, Von Kalvitis, Sir Ivars, and other incompetent knights fighting with windmills, the fight nobody really believes into....but the virtual fight is not fairytale anymore." Comic, to not to say more, but very true comic indeed.
p.s. For those of you wondering in bewilderment about aristocratic adjectives in front of Latvian names, those are Latvian nouveau riche folks who are bying de, von and sir en masse to become wannabe aristocrats, thus, instead of iron rule of oligarchy there is iron rule of wannaby arictocracy at work in the post Soviet space:)
The order is being made to refresh the facade f the existing government, thus next week the government would step down, finally, huh, huh!! The most arkward fact, however, is that servants of the country (ministere - to serve in Latin) missinterpret their mandate. But here not only Latvia is to be blamed, because most of the countries executives desperately hold to their power. The issue now in Latvia is about the strategic move however, and the new premiership of Gundars Bēziņš cannot privide Latvian economy with fresh strategy out of abyss, he can get it only deeper in coul de sac due to his qualifications. Therefore my standpoint is that a proposed premiership of Gundars Bērziņš would only aggravate existing grudges among governing gang members. The head of the Free Trade Union Association Pēteris Krīgers announced yesterday, that they would demand offficial dismisal of Saeima in October 17 while meeting with president Zatlers. The October 17 is oficial UNO day of fight against poverty, and according to Latvian constitution only president is entitled to initiate the process of dismissing the parliament. Thus, in theory all previously mentioned factors could foster snap elections as I predicted couple of weeks ago already.
In the meantime the Anti-Corruption Agency (KNAB) is put on slow motion death row, and afer Kas notiek Latvjā? TV show heads of Police and Interior Ministry appeared contradictory and not up to their task. What I read from their announcements that it is not only dauble game, but several games simultaneously are played in order to save some crook's skin or enable continuation of holding to power. Columnist of the daily Diena Aivars Ozoliņš is excellently poignant today. He has condensed the existing situation of Latvian virtual rule of non-entity ministers into a nutshell. Those of you reading Latvian can enjoy fullness of Mr Ozoliņš article in http://www.diena.lv/. But "Varētu pasmieties par de Vaškēviča, fon Kalvīša, sera Ivara un citu plānā galdiņa bruņinieku ampēlēšanos, kurai neviens vairs netic..... Tā diemžēl nav pasaka, my quick translation for the rest of the world is: "we could laugh about De Vaskevics, Von Kalvitis, Sir Ivars, and other incompetent knights fighting with windmills, the fight nobody really believes into....but the virtual fight is not fairytale anymore." Comic, to not to say more, but very true comic indeed.
p.s. For those of you wondering in bewilderment about aristocratic adjectives in front of Latvian names, those are Latvian nouveau riche folks who are bying de, von and sir en masse to become wannabe aristocrats, thus, instead of iron rule of oligarchy there is iron rule of wannaby arictocracy at work in the post Soviet space:)
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Relative calm or preparation for worst news?
Last week in Latvia the public space was full of conflicting news about the domestic infighting. The governing gang is still in power but it somehow feels that smaller gang fractions are not satisfied with the changing rules of the game. That means that they are getting out of the control, and that probably explained hasty and outright irresponsible announcement of the PM - that "there are rings of former paratroupers, KGB spies and present SAB operatives who rund the country". Yesterday the president convened the State Security Council session. At the end of the session president did not have anything to say, the minister of interior announced that there is a gang in Latvia terrorizing state officials and PM had nothing tangible to add at all. Ironically, the biggest news that came out of the State Security Council was the fact, that the incumbent speaker of the Parliament, Gunārs Daudze (member of the Latvijai un Ventspilij political party, whos head is sitting under house arrest facing embezzlement and insubordination to the state officials charges) is being elected as the new secretary of the Council. Also, yesterday the Russian president signed the Latvian-Russian border agreement into law, nd it meants that now the agreement must be finally exchanged between two country's officials.
The State Security Council ended as expected and prime minister's extravaganzas were hushed down. While journalists asked president Valdis Zatlers bout his opinion about the suspension of the head of the Anti Corruption agency (KNAB) his answer was evasive. He answered that he does not agree with haste in such decisions made and leaves it to the government special comission led by the Prosecutor General Jānis Maizītis. It is strange that Jānis Maizītis has not come up with the announcement about the illegality of PM's actions while temporarily suspending Mr Loskutovs from KNAB duties. First, the PM had the right to suspend him right after the State Control review was announced in May and not 4 month later, and second, the right to suspend KNAB head has Parliament in case the KNAB head has breached he law as stipulated in the mandate. PM action was delayed, and delay was probably caused due to the fact that former president Vaira Vīķe Freiberga was still in the office when the report from State Control ofice came. Thus, political games after government's endorsed president is in the office started last week.
Political games could be called also remodelling of the political landscape in Latvia and it actually started ith the election of Gunārs Daudze as the news speaker of the parliament. Now, there are reshuffles in the government on agenda. Today, Fatherland Union (TB/LNK) meets with PM to discuss the assignment of the minister of economics to their party, as it was stipulated by the coalition agreement. The TB/LNNK head of parliamentary fraction is afraid that PM is changing existing rules (Grīnblatam radies iespaids, ka premjers atkāpies no koleģiāla lēmumu pieņemšanas modeļa un koalīcija atgriezusies pie tā sauktā 3+1 modeļa, kāds tas bija, tēvzemiešiem ienākot valdībā, proti, koalīcijas lēmēju kodolu veido TP, ZZS un LPP/LC). Disagreements are there and it is no surprise but what makes me laugh is the announcement of the governing Peoples Party fraction head Māris Kučinskis prior TB/LNNK reps. meeting with the PM. Mr Kučinskis announced that "TB/LNNK positions are very weak because in the present situation with disbalanced economy all the blame for economic ills are directed against the PM, and he has nowhere to get help from."
Whatever announcements members of governing coalition do not make, the fact is that "the King is naked". The government is bare and illegitimate in the eyes of the public opinion, thus the decision of the elite to play the hard ball - all or nothing. The hrd ball is played in the precarios times when relations with Russia are warming up and border agreement was just signed into law by the president Putin. Last week PM Kalvitis came up with the announcement "that relations between Latvia and Russia should be expanded in cultural and conomic sphere, because both countries are culturally close". Last week it was the Constitutional court that came with the announcement about the compatibility of the border agreement with the Latvian constitution would be reached on October 30, 2007. After the UNO General Assembly meeting Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Artis Pabriks announced that his homologue Mr Serguei Lavrov might arrive to Riga. It would be more that obvious that if the border agreement was signed in Moscow then officially signed & ratified agrement should exchange hands in Riga, because there are two to sign border agreement or there are always two to dnce tango. Shall see, how the official exchange of agreement shall procceed, and whether Constituational Court decision would be in accordance with already ratified document. There are many questions still to be answered during October, and the question still stands, whether there should be preparation for worst news?
The State Security Council ended as expected and prime minister's extravaganzas were hushed down. While journalists asked president Valdis Zatlers bout his opinion about the suspension of the head of the Anti Corruption agency (KNAB) his answer was evasive. He answered that he does not agree with haste in such decisions made and leaves it to the government special comission led by the Prosecutor General Jānis Maizītis. It is strange that Jānis Maizītis has not come up with the announcement about the illegality of PM's actions while temporarily suspending Mr Loskutovs from KNAB duties. First, the PM had the right to suspend him right after the State Control review was announced in May and not 4 month later, and second, the right to suspend KNAB head has Parliament in case the KNAB head has breached he law as stipulated in the mandate. PM action was delayed, and delay was probably caused due to the fact that former president Vaira Vīķe Freiberga was still in the office when the report from State Control ofice came. Thus, political games after government's endorsed president is in the office started last week.
Political games could be called also remodelling of the political landscape in Latvia and it actually started ith the election of Gunārs Daudze as the news speaker of the parliament. Now, there are reshuffles in the government on agenda. Today, Fatherland Union (TB/LNK) meets with PM to discuss the assignment of the minister of economics to their party, as it was stipulated by the coalition agreement. The TB/LNNK head of parliamentary fraction is afraid that PM is changing existing rules (Grīnblatam radies iespaids, ka premjers atkāpies no koleģiāla lēmumu pieņemšanas modeļa un koalīcija atgriezusies pie tā sauktā 3+1 modeļa, kāds tas bija, tēvzemiešiem ienākot valdībā, proti, koalīcijas lēmēju kodolu veido TP, ZZS un LPP/LC). Disagreements are there and it is no surprise but what makes me laugh is the announcement of the governing Peoples Party fraction head Māris Kučinskis prior TB/LNNK reps. meeting with the PM. Mr Kučinskis announced that "TB/LNNK positions are very weak because in the present situation with disbalanced economy all the blame for economic ills are directed against the PM, and he has nowhere to get help from."
Whatever announcements members of governing coalition do not make, the fact is that "the King is naked". The government is bare and illegitimate in the eyes of the public opinion, thus the decision of the elite to play the hard ball - all or nothing. The hrd ball is played in the precarios times when relations with Russia are warming up and border agreement was just signed into law by the president Putin. Last week PM Kalvitis came up with the announcement "that relations between Latvia and Russia should be expanded in cultural and conomic sphere, because both countries are culturally close". Last week it was the Constitutional court that came with the announcement about the compatibility of the border agreement with the Latvian constitution would be reached on October 30, 2007. After the UNO General Assembly meeting Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Artis Pabriks announced that his homologue Mr Serguei Lavrov might arrive to Riga. It would be more that obvious that if the border agreement was signed in Moscow then officially signed & ratified agrement should exchange hands in Riga, because there are two to sign border agreement or there are always two to dnce tango. Shall see, how the official exchange of agreement shall procceed, and whether Constituational Court decision would be in accordance with already ratified document. There are many questions still to be answered during October, and the question still stands, whether there should be preparation for worst news?
Monday, October 1, 2007
The test for president Zatlers integrity
The time of reckoning for Latvian incumbent president has arrived. The PM´s announcement about the international ring of spies and special commandos running Latvia caught president unawares. Whilst being asked about temporary suspension of the Anti Corruption agency (KNAB) head Aleksejs Loskutovs president was evasive in his response to journalists. The fast unravelling of events in Latvia did not leave much room for him to speak out, because he was on his trip to Big Apple to be part of the UNO General Assembly opening session. Now, when economy is in dire straits and political scandals erupt every day there is obvious concern about ability to continue with balanced development of society.
When president was elected then I predicted that the real test for Mr Zatlers presidency would be his ability to distance from the governing coalition. Until today there was nothing to contest in public affairs due to the relative calm of the vacation period. It was irresponsible for the PM to simply sleep on laurels and do absolutely nothing while seeing spiralling inflation throughout the summer, even more so considering the fact that he is by his training an economist (though the degree was received from the University of Agriculture). But it as irresponsible for the Latvian president now to show his surprise about the real state of business because the head of his chancellary is another economist Mr Eduards Stiprais.
We should see in upcoming months whether Latvian president would take an independent stance or simply would meddle through rough autumn of Latvian politics? I opt for president simply muddling through the autumn of Latvian political turmoil because he has no independent political backing, and due to the respect to governing coalition for his nomination after all. The fact that autumn would be rough come from all corners in Latvia. In the Latvian TV evening news tonight it was governor of the Bank of Latvia Ilmars Rimsevics who vicariously confirmed predictions about the imminent economic crisis. In his LIVE intervie Mr Rimsevics reiterated several times that the inflation expectations are out in the public, thus he called politicians to come to senses and not to build their political capital in spreading rumours about high annual inflation Latvia (probably referring to Mr Stokenbergs interview in Latvijas Avize today), and confirming that the Bank of Latvia predicted rate of annual inflation is just above 12%. While answering to the journalist's question whether there is devaluation of Latvian currency expected, the governor of the bank was resolutely negative: 'while I am the governor of the bank of Latvia there would be no devaluation of the lat!` The journalist then asked whether someone else might devalue the currency, because the mandate of the governor expires on December 30, 2007? The answer of Mr Rimsevics was court -`it is going to be the business of future governor of the Bank of Latvia.`
Clear and simple answers from the governor of the bank of Latvia still worries me in the context of present political developments in Latvia. Just seeing how irresponsible is the style of governance of the incumbeng cabinet and rubberstamping parliamentary majority I am not sure whether Ilmars Rimsevics mandate would be prolonged at the end of this year, or whether he is interested in sailing in the delapidated Ms Latvia. Analogy with the sailing ship unfortunately make me reckon that there are rats fleeing the ship already. Just, in the case with open and liberal economy these are not the gentelmen at helm but blue and white collar workers leaving the ship. If the coalition should fall due to the inability to agree on 2008 budget, then very serious thinking should be started about how to keep the falling pieces together. The energy prices shoot up today and Latvian housholds should see their utilitity bills increase by a third. Lets see the effects of Latvian public to contain the grudge and Latvian municipal authorities to help the most needy in case of cold winter. Bizzare the Latvian system looks now and the period of waiting simply feels too long.
When president was elected then I predicted that the real test for Mr Zatlers presidency would be his ability to distance from the governing coalition. Until today there was nothing to contest in public affairs due to the relative calm of the vacation period. It was irresponsible for the PM to simply sleep on laurels and do absolutely nothing while seeing spiralling inflation throughout the summer, even more so considering the fact that he is by his training an economist (though the degree was received from the University of Agriculture). But it as irresponsible for the Latvian president now to show his surprise about the real state of business because the head of his chancellary is another economist Mr Eduards Stiprais.
We should see in upcoming months whether Latvian president would take an independent stance or simply would meddle through rough autumn of Latvian politics? I opt for president simply muddling through the autumn of Latvian political turmoil because he has no independent political backing, and due to the respect to governing coalition for his nomination after all. The fact that autumn would be rough come from all corners in Latvia. In the Latvian TV evening news tonight it was governor of the Bank of Latvia Ilmars Rimsevics who vicariously confirmed predictions about the imminent economic crisis. In his LIVE intervie Mr Rimsevics reiterated several times that the inflation expectations are out in the public, thus he called politicians to come to senses and not to build their political capital in spreading rumours about high annual inflation Latvia (probably referring to Mr Stokenbergs interview in Latvijas Avize today), and confirming that the Bank of Latvia predicted rate of annual inflation is just above 12%. While answering to the journalist's question whether there is devaluation of Latvian currency expected, the governor of the bank was resolutely negative: 'while I am the governor of the bank of Latvia there would be no devaluation of the lat!` The journalist then asked whether someone else might devalue the currency, because the mandate of the governor expires on December 30, 2007? The answer of Mr Rimsevics was court -`it is going to be the business of future governor of the Bank of Latvia.`
Clear and simple answers from the governor of the bank of Latvia still worries me in the context of present political developments in Latvia. Just seeing how irresponsible is the style of governance of the incumbeng cabinet and rubberstamping parliamentary majority I am not sure whether Ilmars Rimsevics mandate would be prolonged at the end of this year, or whether he is interested in sailing in the delapidated Ms Latvia. Analogy with the sailing ship unfortunately make me reckon that there are rats fleeing the ship already. Just, in the case with open and liberal economy these are not the gentelmen at helm but blue and white collar workers leaving the ship. If the coalition should fall due to the inability to agree on 2008 budget, then very serious thinking should be started about how to keep the falling pieces together. The energy prices shoot up today and Latvian housholds should see their utilitity bills increase by a third. Lets see the effects of Latvian public to contain the grudge and Latvian municipal authorities to help the most needy in case of cold winter. Bizzare the Latvian system looks now and the period of waiting simply feels too long.
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