Pollsters prior 17.09.2011

Here you have "Latvijas fakti" pollster showing the latest trends. Pollsters are tricky business, because different polling firms in Latvia do show different results. I have sticked to "Latvijas Fakti" and SKDS, because they are traditional and they do show certain trends. The most obvious one is the number of undecided or swing voters and as you can see the number has declined from 35% down to 31.3%. However, there is still some way to go and the most successful of the contenders will get the biggest chunk of those 20.7% voters who simply do not know whom they are going to vote for. Also, except the insignificant pocket parties four of the most realistic contenders for getting into the Saeima - Unity, Harmony Center, Union of Greens and Farmers, and National Alliance - are showing the trend of growth. The Zatlers Reform Party support has slightly declined due to the questionable emulation of the tradition of showing who the prime ministerial candidate will be. Lets see the polls next week to grasp the dynamics of election campaign in the simultaneously transforming Latvian party political system.

In order to make predicitions you need a solid base...

Any science needs measurable quantities or substances in order to get thruthful answers. It is even more true in social sciences and the balanced development of the Western societies has given political scientists ample of time to make certain and solid predictions after the Wortld War II. Conclusions of Ron Ingelhardt, Gabriel Almon or Giovanni Sartori still hold very much to the stability of Western societies, which are gradually changing if we folow what is happening in Belgium, the US, PIGS or Mexico today. Party political systems are changing in all previously mentioned countries except the US due to the FPTP electoral system, but it explains the polarization of opinions prior last four US presidential elections, TEA party phenomenon, and many other new developments in once ''stable'' party political wheeling & dealing systems. Thus, the once easily predictable voter's behaviour is transforming and particularly in peripheral EU countries the party system volatility is increasing.

Latvia, is no exception here and the volatility of the Latvian parties is closer to the homologues in Central or South America, rather than ones in the Central Europe. The endemic corruption and state capture was practiced all those years due to the cleptocratic elites and meek populations, who were not demanding their representatives to be legitimate within the system of rule of law. Thus, the Latvian existing miniscule political parties are being remade now or there are new ones created, when finally very essential legal amendments are on the threshold (the mandatory tax and property declarations system should be introduced by January 1,2012 and ppolitical parties will be funded from the state budget as of the same date).

For the September 17, 2012 elections there will be thirteen party lists competing for the 100 seat parliament. The competition might seem fierce but in reality there are only five considerable contenders for passing the 5% entry threshold - the center right Unity, the center left Harmony Center, liberal Zatlers Reform party, the conservative National Alliance and Union of Greens and Farmers. While the center, right, left or liberal appears in the party programs Latvian parties it is still premature to call them this way, because the Latvian party political system is being remodeled at this very moment. Thus, ideologicaly based discourse is still to develop in Saeima, and for that the incumbent political forces ned legitimacy.

But the legitimacy is the crucial problem because so fgar unaccountability rules and previous oligarchic political parties disoriented voters. That explains why Latvia is so full of contrasts. While the Latvian Saeima was about to be be given way to continue its half baked reforms, the Latvian president literally interrupted the pregnancy just nine month after the 10'th Saeima was sworn in, and about 45% of Latvian voters in referendum decided to abort the stillborn parliament. Now, in the latest pollster one third of populations still proclaims that they do not know whom to vote for in forthcoming elections, and I can understand that. But then today there is a pollster where 77% of questioned believe that qualitative changes in the newly elected Saeima are impossible to expect. Also whilst following the latest Eurobarometer pollster, it becomes clear that Latvian voters do not see the light at the end of the tunnel as their Estonian neighbors for example. To put such a grim Latvian picture in a nutshell, what do you do in such a situation when people do not believe in ability to change smth. in their own environment? My short answer is - empower and educate them! For the more elaborate program and policies there will be a whole month to explain:)

After the Latvian July 23 referendum...

The formative referendum dismissed the 10th Saeima, and the first ever emergency elections in Latvia will be held in September 17, 2011.

The time to prepare for elections is short and thus most political parties go with their old or slightly upgraded programs. Because among the Latvian populace most of the democratic institutions are dismissingly unpopular, and parliament being among them, thus many new faces have appeared on the party lists. And to make the situation even more intriguing also there is a new kid on the block, who shall try to squeeze into the Latvian party political spectrum.

Until now it is hard to predict the exact outcome of the Latvian elections, because the Latvian party political system has returned to the square one, and since the budgetary funding for the political parties will start only from 01.01.2012, we could finally start to project operations and what kind of system will be formed out from the ethnically divided and scarsely populated Latvian parties.

Because of the emergency character of those formative elections I have decided to run for the Saeima myself. This would make me to change my usual schedule and I have already started to participate in the month long election campaign sprint.




Other than that, my hunch is that the center right Unity, the center left Harmony Center (HC), the liberal Zatlers Reform (ZRP) party, the Union of Greens and Farmers as well as the conservative National Union party would get elected into the parliament. I am not sure about chances of the For Human Rights in United Latvia party as well as about the desperate maverick trying to do anything to get elected. Nevertheless, the fact is that until now about a third of electors are undecided and thus the campaign month (or better say the sprint!) will determine whether Latvian voters shall opt for the European of post-Soviet path of development. The European path would be defined by voters trusting the results of hard won reforms of the Valdis Dombrovskis government and allowing to form coalition with either the ZRP or the HC party. The opposite and hopefully non materializing path would foresee the populist politicans engineering an ethnically deterministic vote for the benefit of ''populous anarchy a'la lettica'', and thus opening Ms Latvia for uncharted waters...again:)

P.S. My latest piece in Ukrainian ''Tyzhden'' (in Ukrainian)

Formative referendum on July 23, 2011 (updated)

My usual weekend calm was interrupted by the Norwegian tragedy and flying down South to the shores of Bosphorus. Since my arrival to Turkey the Latvian Central Election commission has already sealed the official results and announced that the emergency elections would take place in September 17, 2011.

The July 23, 2011 referendum in Latvia finished the procedure of dissolution of the parliament started by the former president Valdis Zatlers with his ominous May 28 Decree No. 2. The legal pretext for dissolution of the parliament served the decision of HC party together with oligarchic Union of Greens and Farmers not to lift parliamentary immunity of an another oligarch and MP Ainars Slesers when the Corruption Prevention Bureau asked with the Riga District Court permission to search premises of ominous politician. Reasons for sacking the parliament since Latvia joined the EU have been ample however. Cynical misuse of power reached the equinox, however, in the October 2006 parliamentary elections. Those elections were plagued by misuse of illegal financing and the Supreme Court of Latvia in its November 3, 2006 verdict was slightly shy from proclaiming the 2006 elections null and void. Thus, the heavy weight of oligarchic parties misusing funds and poisoning the Latvian political culture fostered the embedded culture of alienation which has estranged Latvian voters from democratic institutions of governance. Thus, the July 23, 2011 referendum results with 44% of eligible voter’s participation rate and 95% agreeing to dissolve the parliament was not unexpected.
The sheer number who voted YEA was surprising, however, because 65% of them voted for the incumbent parliament less than a year ago in parliamentary elections. Latvian political commentators have been analyzing reasons behind such distrust of citizen’s vis-à-vis their own republic, and also why the smallest number of participants in plebiscitary voting came from Riga and Latgale electoral districts. The reasons for distrust lead us back to the early 1990’s when Latvia together with other Baltic republics regained its independence. Estonia and Lithuania had a new constitutional caucus, election law and subsequent upgrading of laws concerning public finance and governance issues. Latvian legislators rolled over the constitution of 1922 and has remained the only EU member state which neither has the mandatory tax and property declarations system nor it funds political parties with Malta from the state budget. Reasons for voters in Riga and Latgale being relatively inactive (38 and 34 % participation respectively) are twofold. First, the stagnated political culture has been embedded due to the existing oligarchic parties which have openly discouraged active civic participation during referendums last five years. Second, the majority of Riga and Latgale electoral district voters voted for the mainly russophone Harmony Center (HC) party. The latter governs Riga and most of Latgale municipalities but during the last twenty years they have metamorphosed from ethnic into social democratic party and have sat in opposition all those years.
The referendum set a unique precedent while empowering the somewhat dormant Latvian civil society. The amendment in the election law stipulates that political parties will be funded from the state budget as of January 1, 2012, and many other legal innovations since the May 28, 2011 presidential decree No. 2 have strengthened the rule of law in Latvia. The only concern is the fact that in terms of party political development Latvia has returned to square one or at the point where it started in the early 1990’s. The Latvian party political system was poisoned by the ethnically determined division in right wing Latvian and left wing Russian speaking political parties. Since last elections the trend is for parties to determine its policies on social and economic issues. Thus, while the consolidation of political parties took place the political unions were not so much based on pragmatic ideologically similar platform. Thus, we may witness the plethora of new political parties being formed and some older political parties trying to merge now on the identical ideological foundations.
Such process is welcome but just two months prior emergency elections it is hard to predict how qualitative the newly formed parties will be and how well they will be able to expose the ‘’hoppers’’ from the formerly oligarchic parties. Thus, former president Zatlers Reform Party has announced itself as liberal force and thus will have to compete with catch all mechanisms for the same voter as the Unity political bloc which should merge its three constitutive parts into the right to the center political party on August 6. It is positive that there are now distinct liberal, conservative and centrist parties, but what Latvian body politics is really missing is the social democratic or progressive political force. Thus, this open niche is filled by the HC party which uses populist slogans but has not established efficient relations with the trade unions.
Therefore, while stable and leading position of HC in polls continues probably the 35-40% of undecided or swing voters will determine the election outcome. Also, I must remind here that HC party has been leadind the polls both BY Latvıjas Fakti and SKDS firms for the last three years, but they became second during last year's parliamentary elections. The latest polls showed significant decrease of support from the HS, Unity, Nationalist Bloc and Union of Greens and Farmers. The Zatlers Reform Party (ZRP) has very good starting positions but the hard labor of creating party base and little monies for the campaign will probably determine their abılıties to hold a successful campaign.



IR

Initially the ethnically defined National bloc and HC are gaining strength from the dissolution of the parliament. Successful outcome of September 17 elections will be determined by the ability of the successful political parties to create jobs, decrease unemployment and embed the rule of law however. Neither of ethnically defined parties have been able to seriously compete on those issues so far. Therefore, the major contenders for the formation of government coalition will be the governing Unity, ZRP and HC parties, while National Bloc, Union of Greens and Farmers and maybe First and Latvian Way party union would have to compete among themselves for passing the required 5% threshold for entering into the parliament.

p.s. My previous statements from the interview in ERR were actually uttered while thinking that ceteris paribus nothing will change prior elections, but since May 28, 2011 Latvia has become ''richer'' with 3 new parties, and 2 former electoral unions merging into 2 distinct parties

p.p.s. Here are my latest articles for those reading in Latvian, and Ukrainian

Basketball and elections in the Baltics 2011

Even though Latvia prepares for the hot electioneering after the July 23 referendum about the dispersal of the Saeima there is ordinary life still going on. In addition there are also elections in Estonia this summer, when the new president should be elected in the Riigikogu. The decision of Indrek Tarand (MEP) to become a contender along Toomas Hendrik Ilves in August 27, 2011 presidential elections has added spice to the usually calm Estonian political climate. While the Estonian politicians debate the historic legacy of the incumbent president one may predict that probably some of the discussions would focus on pros and cons of the popularly elected vs. parliamentary elected head of state problematique.

Latvian incumbent president Valdis Zatlers would probably try to continue overhauling the Latvian oligarchy. After his ominous Decree No. 2 in May 28. 2011 there are some very significant changes taking place in the Latvian parliament already. After wrangling for two years the head of the KNAB was finally popped with 82 YEA votes and only two MP's abstained. Also the parliament in its last session prior the summer recess lowered the limits for the election campaign financing by half, opened the way for MP's to be prosecuted if the Prosecutors office or Supreme Court decides so. The amendments in the Commercial Act would finally allow judicial branch to learn the beneficiaries of the offshore companies in Latvia. And last but not least the the head of the Constitutional Court officially announced that the ill qualified member of the Constitutional Court Vineta Muižniece probably has no way of return to work at the Supreme Court. The previously mentioned member of the court was suspended from her duties, because she is facing criminal proceedings for fraud while being the head of the Legal Committee of the Parliament.

Political process is slowly euroepanized in Latvia but parliamentary elections would probably bring only scanty changes. If one thinks about the long term sustainability of the Latvian democracy then the public initiatives, which started after famous "funerals of oligarchs", could probably ensure embededness of civic participation in Latvia. Estonia would further develop en route of becoming another boring Nordic state, and the summer would be spent in vacationing mood. It would actually be a perfect moment for many tourists who would be coming to Lithuania for the Eurobasket 2011, or allowing the basketball to be played in country where the game could be equated with religion. Also many Latvian fans are grateful to the Eurobasket 2011 organizers, because the Latvian men's squad would be playing its preliminary round in Siauliai, the town situated almost on the Latvian border.

While there is dim hope for Latvian men's team reaching beyond the preliminary stage there is little doubt that Mr Kemzura's squad would be willing to show the best Lithuanian krepsinis has to offer. In the meantime Latvian fans are following with keen interest another Eurobasket. While Lithuanian fans can cheer on about a very good performance of their ladies squad Latvian team made headlines only tonight. L'Equipe header tonight: "retour sur terre!" explains it all, because Latvian women's squad managed to work hard and deservedly won the reigning European champions. The midsummer night and biggest festivities of the year are approaching, and on June 23-24 the cities will empty in Latvia and Estonia. In the meantime while Lithuanian ladies will have to play themselves out from the media clout of their male colleagues, it is the Latvian male basketball players who have to find ways around the better playing female colleagues. Enjoy the basketball and smile about the politics in the Baltic States this summer!


Photo: www.fibaeurope.com

After the 2011 Latvian presidential elections

Even though he is not a party member, he was elected on the Union of Farmers and Greens party list into the parliament and on June 2, 2011 Andris Bērziņš became the 7th democratically elected president of Latvia. More thorough analysis would follow in couple of days, but the overall mood in Latvia those days could not be better depicted by Gatis Šļūka.



[Oh my god! I have lost my way...]

June 2, 2011 presidential elections in the Latvian parliament

Its about couple of hours until the presidential elections in the Latvian parliament will start. Latvia is a classical parliamentary republic with 100 representatives electing the president once in four years. Today its time for reelecting the incumbent candidate, or choosing a new one after the last Saturday' s announcement which caused only small tremors until now, but hopefully would overhaul the whole Latvian governing edifice. Delfi has published historic review of how the presidential elections were taking place for the last twenty years. I very much hope that today's decision would be the last one with MP's politicking...:)

There is an ooutright war announced against self made minigarhic politicians and the Corruption Prevention Bureau is doing its job while the head of the bureau was on the leave, thus its time to pop this nuisance as well.

The optimal result of today's elections should help Latvia proceed with its structural reforms in economic and political system. While at the end of the year the IMF financial assistance should be terminated, Latvia could have a steely president, public cleaned of corrupt politicians and public officials, new parliament elected - a true RESET of democratic rule! Thus, the Latvian people could have a fresh start - and this is what I wish prior the outcome of today's vote in the parliament:)

p.s. Here are pieces 1, 2, 3, 4 for the Estonian readers