Monday, March 23, 2009

March 2009 public opinion in Latvia

The last week of March started today and Latvijas Fakti in cooperation with Diena published the monthly poll. Customarily around 1000 Latvian citizens were asked: what political party you would vote for if elections would take place tomorrow?


And I just could not resist to add the Gatis Šļūka view on today's government travails:)

59 comments:

Wannabe Sorosieši said...

My question with such polling is- Is it really accurate? My understanding is that very few ethnic LVs would actually vote for SC, but they seem to consistently poll high. Can one reasonably project a Saeima makeup from this poll? How accurate were they last time?

Baltic said...

Wannabe Sorosiesi:

Accuracy of Latvijas Fakti, SKDS or any other pollster is very good. The popularity of SC is explained due to 2 basic factors - a) utterly recless performance of the former governing coalition parties (TP, LPP/LC, ZZS, TB/LNNK) and, b) the fact that these polls are taken in between parliament elections. Thus, the 50% of undecided and alienated voters (mostly ethnic Latvians who are fed up with existing governing parties) are just waiting in wings to join the most suitable candidate prior elections.

Just prior elections Latvijas Fakti accuracy fluctuated within generally aceptable +/- 3% margin.

Wannabe Sorosieši said...

But still- does the poll (close to election) reasonably predict the makeup of Saeima?

Baltic said...

Wannabe Soros:

As far I remember then prior 2005 municipal elections in Riga, and 2006 parliamentary election predictions were acurate. I do not recall now whether LF predicted the landslide sweep of TB/LNNK, gotta look into this matter myself.

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