Wednesday, February 4, 2009

No alternative from the opposition - the PM should survive the vote of no confidence (Updated)

Its 3pm (CET) and while working on a research paper I am listening to the live Saeima session. I did not expect anything but shallow populism from the official Latvian parliaments' court jesters, Messrs Tabūns & Dobelis (and they proved my predictions right again...). However, I expected something more tangible from the initiators of the vote of no confidence, the New Era party (NE). The speech of Solvita Āboltiņa (NE) was mere compilation of future aspirations, and mere generalizations however. Members of the opposition Civic Union (CU) Madams Kalniete and Čepāne were more specific and underlined major reasons for the Republic Latvia finding itself in the sorry state of political and economic collapse. The session of the parliament is ongoing, Ivars Godmanis has already accepted the Minister of Agriculture Mr Roze letter of resignation, and I suspect that the PM would survive the vote of no confidence.

Why? Because the opposition did not propose so far the alternative shadow cabinet, and because each of the opposition party is planning their own tactics prior the triple election saga. It means that opposition is still too fractional and consolidation still in the near future. While following the events in the parliament it seems that probably even the Peoples Party (PP) has agreed on the continued leadership of the incumbent PM.

It would mean that after slimming of the government also some of the opposition parties would be invited into the new and refurbished Latvian government. At least the Godfather of the present government uttered about it already before, that if possibility would arise then the new coalition partner would be the Harmony Centre party). It would consequently mean that the old/new Ivars Godmanis government would carry on until the snap elections in the foreseeable future.

Updated

Members of the opposition Einārs Repše (NE), Kārlis Šadurskis (CU) and Aigars Štokenbergs (SCP) appealed to the governing coalition MP's with well structured and concise presentations. However, I am afraid that the majority MP's are unable to understand the depth of the Latvian stagnation and unwilling to brake out of the power bubble. Thus, while it is already 17.00pm (CET) I am still sticking to the previous prediction that the PM would carry on at the helm of Ms Latvia, and would try to lead it out from the rough seas.

It is 18.00 (CET) and MP Dzintars Ābiķis (Peoples Party) announced that there have been negotiations among the governing coalition members about inviting opposition New Era (NE) and Harmony Center (HC) parties to form a new and enlarged coalition government.

Have to wait until the end of the emergency session of the parliament, and then the framework for the development during upcoming half a year would be known.

Its 18.16pm (CET) and with 40 AYE, 51NAY and 1 ABSTAINED votes the vote of non-confidence failed, and the incumbent PM would try to continue navigating Ms Latvia out of the rough seas. How and whether he would succeed slimming the present government would be the topic for next entries...

Finally, in Thursday's Diena there is a very revealing and poignant cartoon about the behaviour of the present governing coalition!
Member of the People's Party (TP) - We need to keep this government! And his reflection - We need new government!


Cartoon: Ernests

50 comments:

Carren from AUS said...

Just wanned to ask You- Current Latvia administration is to blame for past decisions that lead to today's problems?
You also said that there are still incompetent state men in parliament. You also said that opposition of parliament has no clear plan for action. It is obvious that Latvia nation it self is kind of desperate about on going crises.

Can You answer a couple simple questions:
1. Who is to blame for crises?
2. What shall be done to get out of crises?

Baltic said...

Carren:

The cuurent administration with slight changes, is a continuation of the same governing coalition that orchestrated stealing of parliamentary elections on September 2006. The former/present governing coalition clique(Greens&farmers, conservatives/liberals, self proclaimed archconervatives and right wing populist opportunists) was used to the situation of cheap credit generated real estate boom, but those good times are over now.

Answers:

1. economic crisis is to be blamed to the complacency and irresponsibility of the present governing elite. Regardless of warnings the government CONTINUED as if nothing happened to consume 1/3 more than Latvia prodused annuallly. Politically the present coalition and also the whole post-independence "political elite" is to be blamed for not passing the legislature that would allow to have the political stability at home - and which would be so handy during those economically turbulent times.

2. Immidiately - the most preffereable solution would be the Chicago style (Chile in the 1980's) technocratic and apolitical cabinet with the Scandinavian experience, to put the economy back on tracks and running. If not, then expanded Ivars Godmanis government but preferably without Godfather Slesers (minister of transport), present minister of finance and greens/farmers in the coalition.

It would be followed by the referendum on initiating the early elections together with municipal and EP election on June 6, 2009. Followed by early parliamentary elections in early September.

It could restore the legitimacy in the democratic goverance and restore the trust in the rule of law among the public.

Carren from AUS said...

I accept Your answer of restructurised government as short term solution. The title of Your paragraph already shows that opposition has no alternative.

But would You please describe in short what are the long term possibilities of Latvia? Are there upcoming alternatives or is it really endless marathon careless elite riding on the shoulders of its helpless nation?

PS
How about demographic factor that is often mentioned among economics concerning Latvia's financial crises? Where would those technocratic specialists come from?

Baltic said...

Carren:

Long term possibilities are guarded by the membership of EU&NATO. It sounds utterly silly, but it allows to galvanize the opposition. Just week ago New Era, Civic Union & Society for Another politics (three parliamentary represented opposition parties =21 seats) signed memoradum about coordinating their joint actions prior the election marathon.

I do not very much believe in Godmanis&Co ability to overhaul the stagnated state apparatus. IF THERE WOULD be any of the opposition parties accepted in this overhaul, there would be a chance for some moving forward, if not, the same shit and stagnation.

PS How about demographic factor that is often mentioned among economics concerning Latvia's financial crises?

THAT IS VERY SERIOUS ISSUE, but the fact that there is global crisis now, it means that there is no place for folks to leave for better employment grounds. Latvia would need either high skilled employment for initiating its export sector, or it would have to devalue its currency - that is simple economics. Another option is unilateral aceptance of euro currency, but this precedent would ring bad precedent in Brussels corridors (at it least it sounds like that now:)

Where would those technocratic specialists come from?

There are ample of SSERiga graduates, LSE, Chicago etc. good Latvian graduates even today in private sector. However, the present elite smugly does not pay attention to their existence. Remember, that Kalvitis has economics education from University of Agriculture(and listened during his tenure to elementary school educated Slesers), and physicist Godmanis economic advisor is the former senior resarcher at the institute of agricultural economics Mr Miglavs.....

The new governing coalition is welded during this weekend, and in early next week e should see some news on horizon:)

Carren from AUS said...

Well, thanks for insight.

However, I still don't see enough competent candidates to replace current elite.

By quick skipping through SCP, PS webs I noticed three or four adequately experienced and educated persons, and than it begins- education of construction, sailing, forestry, linguistics etc. some are simply businessmen perhaps with no education at all.
See yourself.. It really doesn't look any more promising than contemporary elite.

Concerning those education facilities that You mentioned.. I'm not sure if graduates from SSE Riga will be willing to struggle in this mess You have in Riga for wage of up to 10,000 if there are chance to work in nongovernmental sector for up to 150,000 (according to European Business school ratings that placed SSE as 12th top school).

Last two minor questions:
Is augstskola Attīstība any good (was mentioned in profile of PS elite member)?
What about Your school- the one in Riga- is it any good/ related to issues? Or does it concern purely EU topic?

Baltic said...

Carren:

You said: "I still don't see enough competent candidates to replace current elite"

First of all, one or two candidates wont make a difference. What is needed, is the critical mass of opposition party members gaining momentum, and thus changing the election law, thus Latvian party system would become dependent not on oligarchic families but from the state budget payments, as it is customary in ALL EU states.

There are new candidates, but at the present moment THEY ARE looking from sideways, so to say expecting the right moment to act (probably somewher after March 31), ortherwise the present political establishment would destroy any buds of europeanized alternative - thus basically kill the republic...

""I'm not sure if graduates from SSE Riga will be willing to struggle in this mess You have in Riga for wage of up to 10,000 if there are chance to work in nongovernmental sector for up to 150,000 (according to European Business school ratings that placed SSE as 12th top school)""

You are righ, but if they see that republic is destroyed in front of their eyes I hope that most of them would agree postponing their immediate material gains with devoting themselves to 4 year public service:) You may call me an idealist, but if liberally minded and fragmented opposition would not hang together now, then it will hang separately...Or to be more up to date with present times, the liberal minded folks would leave, and Latvia Ltd. could become a transit entrepot/black hole, or whatever you want to call it:)

Is augstskola Attīstība any good (was mentioned in profile of PS elite member)?

not really to be dimplomatic


What about Your school- the one in Riga- is it any good/ related to issues? Or does it concern purely EU topic?

RSU is good at what it does, but we are not university in classical sense. Therefore, I wish our students would have interdisciplinary curriculum, but such aspirations are not within domain of my powers:)

Carren from AUS said...

RSU is good at what it does, but we are not university in classical sense. Therefore, I wish our students would have interdisciplinary curriculum, but such aspirations are not within domain of my powers:)

Couldn't figure out what this means.
Riga Stradins University is not an university?

So what is it that the RSU does?

As far I have fallowed Latvia that is assumed as a member of the EU lack a bit of simple political culture- government and elite remains where it is despite numerous failures in recent history. It also seems that there is hardly any dialogue between the state and the nation. Perhaps an advice from political technologists be helpful in order to normalize relations.

Once You are so competent in local politics I thought that the RSU is also some how related to politic science. So are there any policy advisers trained in Latvia? If not- who advise current state men?

Baltic said...

Riga Stradins University is not an university?

It is a university, but classical university should have at leat 5 classical faculties. RSU was transformed from the Institute of Medicine into the RSU while adding the European Studies Faculty back in 1998. (with poli.scie, econ. public relations, and law dept_ts)

Thus, I am not happy about students from our dept not being able to benefit from other departments courses due to the rigid bureaucracy:)

So what is it that the RSU does?

It has the BEST ADADEMIC&PROFESSIONAL mediacl education in Latvia. Also we have the Poli.scie. (Intl. relations) and economics departments and I would argue that we are the best IR & European Studies department in Latvia (according to the number of our students in ministries/municipalities and IO's). HOWEVER, our students still do not have the required critical mass together with Vidzeme UNiversity College and UNiversity of Latvia political science department (the best of its kind in Latvia) in order to have the newly educated mass of students importance felt:)

""It also seems that there is hardly any dialogue between the state and the nation. Perhaps an advice from political technologists be helpful in order to normalize relations""

AFREED, and most of technologists are Kremlin educated at this very moment.....Dialogue is a 2 way street, and happily the civil society has woken up now. So, lets see how the government "technologists" would paint themselves out of the preent mess:)

Once You are so competent in local politics I thought that the RSU is also some how related to politic science. So are there any policy advisers trained in Latvia? If not- who advise current state men?

UNFORTUNATELY the present government has not required Latvian/European advice so far and have followed narrow minded 0-sum strategies....thus the sad outcome of gulf between the govnmt & the folks increasing.... . Zaneta Ozolina lead the strategic commissiaon at the presidency of Vike Freiberga with many LU and some RSU scholars. Now Roberts Kilis (SSERiga) leads the same commission with Marija Golubeva and other top notchers from Latvia included....however the presidential commission does not realy have a clout over strategic policy making in Latvia due to the fact, that Latvia is parliamentary republic. And in the cabinet and the parliament the advice is less than adequate to be politically correct:)

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