June polling data (updated - news from the Riga City Council)

Today's Diena published monthly pollster about the trust in political parties in Latvia. The ominous trend that started in March 2007 continues and the number of undecided and alienated voters stay worryingly high. The number of undecided voters (30,2%) has reached the level of February 2008, and the disorientation of voters and ongoing saga with the former head of the KNAB probably explains it. Only one party from the governing coalition, the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) would pass the 5% threshold, that is the requested percentage of total votes in order to get into parliament. The opposition Russophone Reconciliation Centre (SC) has lost bits of their appeal due to ambivalent behavior in supporting opposition causes, but sometimes voting together with the governing coalition. Nevertheless they are steady leaders (10,5%) in polls for the last 1,5 years and I would predict that they would stay so, because they have always been in opposition.

Also it must be noted that right at this moment Latvia has reached almost the median point (the middle of it will be reached exactly in October 2008) of the four year election cycle. It means that the interest of general public about party political positions is generally vague now.

Q: For which party you think you would vote for, if parliamentary elections would take place tomorrow?
Data from www.diena.lv

The data shows another worrying trend. Namely the highest support among the governing coalition parties has the ZZS. It is the party without any noticeable policy proposals and weak politicians. The Minister of Agriculture Mārtiņš Roze (ZZS) just survived the vote of no confidence, although during his last six year tenure as the minister the sugar industry is being closed under his supervision and dairy industry is on the brink of collapse.

I personally supported the closure of sugar industry from the pure logic of international trade that says that if the world price for sugar is lower than Latvian produced that it is more reasonable to invest those monies in comparatively advantageous industry. Latvian consumers had to subsidize Latvian sugar producers, who due to their climate could not produce this sweet stuff as cheaply as in Australia, Brazil or Caribbean. Any economics textbook says that in order to transform the redundant industry the government must take care about the reeducation of the redundant workforce. In the meantime Mr Roze party colleague and Minister of Education Tatjana Koķe (ZZS) has done little to anything to reintegrate redundant workers from the closed sugar industry into the workforce. Vocation education in Latvia has collapsed over all, although she has been an integral part of the Latvian policy on education since 1999.

Also and more importantly, the nominal financier of the ZZS and still their PM candidate is the Maire of Ventspils, who was imprisoned in March 2007, but is being released on bail now. Among coalition party members there has not been any discussion about misdeeds of the Maire of Ventspils (they cant even sack him!!!), and if there is such a support for a party with such a equivocal background it makes me reckon that Latvian public is tired of democratic regime and better wishes to see authoritarian rule coming back. After the Loskutovs affair and the latest poll data I have followed the discussion forums in Diena, NRA and LA, and the outright disapproval about democracy and call for a strong hand is omnipresent in comments unfortunately... .

Updated

As to prove the raison d'etre of the alienated and undecided voters LETA just announced that the governing coalition of the Riga City Council could just have ceased to exist. The rainbow coalition consists of the People's Party (TP), First and Latvian Way party union (LC/LPP), Social Democrats (LSDSP) and Fatherland and Freedom (TB/LNNK) and Jānis Birks (TB/LNNK) is the Maire of Riga. The motion of no confidence was started by the opposition New Era (JL) party and its petition is being signed also by following persons from the Riga governing coalition - vice Maire Jānis Dinevičs (LSDSP), Edmunds Krastiņš (TP), Dainis Īvāns (LSDSP), Aris Lācis (TP), Baiba Rozentāle (TP), Andrejs Vilks (LSDSP), Jānis Karpovičs (LSDSP) and some members of "Dzimtene" fraction. The second vice maire Andris Ārgalis (TP) said that he would also sign the petition if there will be 30 signatures on it.

It is less than a year until the municipal elections in Latvia. Incumbent Maire of Riga is not really popular and corruption scandals have plagued the city particularly during the last 2 years. It is rumoured that if the coalition falls then JL would take the place of TB/LNNK. I guess that for JL such a move is suicidal, but to talk about the future coalition in the city of Riga we must wait till the news really prove the end of the existing coalition. It is particularly important now, because any changes in the Riga government in such a small country like Latvia inescapably would bring changes also in the national government.

The fall of the existing coalition is close, because Diena just announced (17.00CET) that the Maire Jānis Birks has offered New Era (JL) party to participate in the coalition. According to Birks the signatures of Social Democrats (LSDSP) on the petition only proves that LSDSP has exited from the governing coalition of the city of Riga, thus he offers the JL party to take Social Democrats place instead. If TP, LC/LPP would agree on such a move it would prove that Social Democrats were screwed, again. If JL would agree on entering the existing coalition, then I do not really see how determined they will be to lead the August 2 referendum campaign.

Anyway, there is a lot at stake now in the Riga City council, and it WILL affect also national political scene. The hot political summer has really started even disregarding the upcoming Song & Dance Festival, and lets wait till the news prove the new outcome from this political battle!

Final scene of Pyrrhic victory in the Latvian parliament?

The Victory of the governing coalition is almost complete. If there would be a possibility now to undo also the Prosecutor General and the Head of the State Audit Office, then all the corrupt deals of the last four years would be simply whitewashed - and before new elections the present Latvian politicians could start from the clean sheet:)

In yesterday's emergency session the judicial commission bypassed the Saeima procedures (thus the opposition New Era (JL) arty already announced that they will try to overrule this decision in the Constitutional court). The motion of laying off the head of the Anti Corruption Agency Mr Loskutovs was brought to the parliament as a separate emergency session after all, and no rational arguments of the motley opposition helped here. The People's Party (TP) representatives were not even hiding their angst and with 53 AYS in the 100 member parliament Loskutovs was sacked from his post.

The former PM Kalvītis was thus happy about firing Mr Loskutovs that he could not hide it from the Saeima pulpit. He came out with another pearl a'la Kalvītis, announcing that, "the performance of Mr Loskutovs has made all the MP's into criminals in the eyes of commoners". His bravado in front of the MP's was a meek cover, because yesterday he was thus afraid of the peaceful demonstration in the front of the parliament, that he had to be escorted by the police and entered into the Saeima from the back doors. Also the speaker of the parliament Mr Daudze is his morning radio interview found excuses of avoiding the demonstrating people due to the "inability to talk with such a folks". The irony is that Kalvītis & Daudze named commoners are also members of intelligentsia who were among 500 or so protesters who stood in the front o the parliament for about eight hours.

As it was expected during the first emergency session yesterday the Minister of Defense (52 NO) and Minister of Agriculture (51 NO) survived the vote of no confidence initiated by the motley opposition. The considerable advantage of 58 member governing coalition is gradually dwindling, and now it is a time to wait until the August 2 referendum.

There is the Latvian Song & Dance festival starting this week and it is a chance for folks from all corners of Latvia and world to meet, sing, dance and discuss. It could enable the majority of the participants to form a conclusion that the best proof of the yesterday's Pyrrhic victory would be an overwhelming participation level in the August 2 referendum. Shall see, there are 34 days to go!

Thank you KNAB!

The Anti Corruption Bureau (KNAB) was created five years ago in order to brake the traditional and corrupt networks of the Latvian post independence elite. Since March 2007 one may notice that the civil society is gradually forming out from the situation when Latvian peoples expectations and real life experiences have become incompatible. Latvian hordes in their tens of thousands protested against political elite that mismanage Latvia particularly during the last four years - not with STRIKES, but with leaving to Emerald island and misty Albion instead! Present taxation system is more appropriate to the country of the early 20th century, the money laundering is endemic, social infrastructure is barely surviving and corruption thrives.

Picture: www.diena.lv

Latvian minigarchic families and their godfathers are not happy with the KNAB, because it crushes fiefdoms built by the ill famous AAA team during the last 17 years. The Latvian cabinet gave a green light to lay off the incumbent head (Mr Loskutovs) of the KNAB. The final decision is within parliament and one still does not know whether there will be "ten brave MP's" who would demand (according to the Saeima procedures) to add the issue of Mr Loskutovs into the emergency session tomorrow. On Sunday Latvian motley opposition have demanded the vote of no confidence on ministers of Defense and Agriculture.

Members of intelligentsia as well as opposition New Era (JL), Civic Union (PS), and Society for Other Politics (SCP) parties have asked supporters to come in front of the parliament and, thus with their presence express their support to KNAB as an institution that quite successfully started ridding the republic from the corruption cancer.

I am in Istanbul now but in my thoughts I am with my friends who will be in front of the parliament. Shall see how considerable was the increase of budding civil society since the Cappuccino revolution last October? Even though many experts do not expect multitude of civil society members in front of the Saeima due to the Summer vacation time, still I am convinced that tomorrow's venue will most certainly act as a prelude to the ominous referendum on August 2, 2008!

Latvian summer 2008 parliamentary session goes on

Yesterday I received a text message from the Latvian opposition MP calling me to come in front of the parliament with flowers to support the head of the Anti Corruption bureau Mr Loskutovs. She asked to forward the message further to others and I did to at least four people. Most probably there will be couple of thousand people with steely determination around Saeima this coming Sunday. In the meantime I am departing to Istanbul this afternoon.

The parliamentary session this summer is continuing and most probably will turn out to be the longest in Latvian history. Latvian motley opposition collected 34 signatures to call for an emergency session of the Saeima. This coming Sunday Latvian MP's must decide whether the confidence in two members of the cabinet, the Ministers of Defense and Agriculture, is still there. The governing coalition, that has barely 53 votes in a 100 member parliament, decided that they also want to decide the fate of Mr Loskutovs on the same day. Saeima procedures prohibit adding another motion into the emergency session. The judicial commission of the parliament decided twice on the issue of vote of no - confidence about Mr Loskutovs. On June 20th with the head of the commission Ms Muižniece in abscentia the decision could not be reached because there was no quorum. When Ms Muižniece returned from Azerbaijan the same evening the judicial commission in the evening decided, without members of the opposition parties present, to move the motion of Loskutovs no-confidence to the emergency session. However, nobody knows exactly whether it will really happen on June 29.

Party political games are still played and the referendum that could lead to snap elections is decided to be held on August 2. Saeima must also decide what they will do with proposed changes in pension laws, and this motion could probably go to referendum later this summer. Also incumbent president, while meeting with people in Strenči ,asked his country men and wo men to actively participate in the August 2 referendum. Does it really mean that he also is tired of the present Saeima, or it is just his public relations stunt knowing that its is rather hard to get circa 750 000 AYE votes (half of the electors in Latvia) in the referendum? It is hard to say exactly, although I would argue that he simply tries to be nice to everyone now. After all nobody prohibits him from exercising his power to call for dissolution of the parliament right at this moment as it is written in the Art. 48 of the Satversme. Also the sociological polls since October 2007 show the ever declining trust of the electorate in their parties, government and parliament.

Alright, incumbent president waits till the referendum results, because it saves him from exercising the right to call for the tedious procedure of snap elections. He is cautious and his betting could be quite right - in any case publicly he was outspoken thus showing that he is for changes in the stagnant political culture. Just he forgets one aspect, that onerous action whilst exercising his powers could have saved him from the bad fame of tax evader, and he missed it:)

Midsummer

Its Midsummer time when weather is nice and blossoms bloom all over the meadows and fields in the Baltic States. While Scandinavians try to celebrate Midsummer on the weekend of the June 23-24, Estonia and Latvia still stick to the traditional celebration dates. Most of the Riga citizens already have left the city and the available quota of ferry tickets to Saaremaa is already sold out.

There is turbulence in the Baltic States politics due to the economy cooling down. Estonian PM and Reform party contemplates about the new situation after accepting the negative budget. Latvian PM is in the hospital and recuperates after the car accident. In the meantime the motley opposition acted in unison and postponed the session about "unsuitability" of Mr Loskutovs as the head of the Corruption Fighting Agency (KNAB) prior Midsummer celebrations. The opposition demanded resignation of the ministers of defense and agriculture and the session of the parliament will take place on June 29. Until July 2 also the fate of Mr Loskutovs and the Anti Money laundering law must be decided. It already feels that the politics will be boiling right after the Midsummer celebrations:)

Until then the sun is in equinox and the white nights are just gorgeous.

Līksmu līgošanu un saulainus Jāņus! Lōbusat Jaanipāeva!

Turning on the heat! (updated)

The commission evaluating job performance of the Corruption prevention bureau (KNAB) Mr Loskutovs passed their unanimous verdict - Mr Loskutovs should leave the office. The Commission headed by the Prosecutor General Mr Maizītis and where also the Head of Secret Police Mr Reiniks, the Head of Latvian Security Service (SAB) Mr Kažociņš, the Head of the Saeima National Security commission Mr Jaundžeikars (LPP/LC), and the Minister of Defense Mr Veldre (TP) participate have a right to recommend only. The commission's findings were presented to the government, and government with one minister opposing (Broks (TB/LNNK) decided that Mr Loskutovs should leave his post as the head of KNAB. The final decision making power is within the parliament, thus it is the question now whether the Saeima shall make an emergency session about Mr Loskutovs prior Midsummer or not.

The PM decided to meet the president today but en route there his car collided with a minibus. After the accident Mr Godmanis was taken to the hospital with serious concussion and broken bone in his temple area reports LETA. According to the doctor Andrejs Pavārs from the Riga Hospital No.1 prime minister's condition is not serious, but he would not be able to return to his duties earlier than within a week.

In the meantime the Interior Minister Mareks Seglinš (TP) has lost his mind again (douze points!), because he sent a threatening sms message to the Diena journalist who dared to investigate affairs of People's Party (TP)! After his pronouncements last year he kept quiet for a while, but now such a sms message that would make any PM to demand his resignation. The Prime Minister is in hospital now, thus there is none to demand his resignation...

UPDATED

Latvian parliamentary motley opposition demanded resignation of the Minister of Defense and Minister of Agriculture. Reasons for such a request is the extremely vulnerable situation in fishing and dairy industries as well as pronouncements of Vinets Veldre (TP). The chair of the government was wobbling for some time already and now with the PM in the hospital would it really fall?

The governing coalition has 51+7 mandates in the parliament. Seven mandates has Fatherland Freedom party (TB/LNNK) and their leader Roberts Zīle already announced that his party members have a freedom to decide about Mr Loskutovs at their free will. The governing coalition does not have Mr Pabriks and Štokenbergs anymore, thus the QUESTION now is whether there will be solidification of the existing coalition with mandates from the Reconciliation Centre (SC) and Human Rights Party (FHRL)? Both SC and FHRL were vocal in their dissatisfaction about the existing government, and lets see whether it will also reflect in their voting behavior during upcoming days.

Fruits of economic crisis

It is Wednesday morning and I received news about looming economic crisis in my own garden. While walking down the yard to get my morning newspaper from the mailbox I noticed that small gates were wide open. Later I realized that garden solar power generated lamps were stolen. Those lamps were cheap Chinese made, they were "green" and very effective during the night. The theft last night only confirms the general news that is spreading for last couple of months about the economy slowing, and hence the number of thefts and overall crime rate increasing.

Several garden owners have told me personally that the snatchers of onions and salads are back after two years absence and leaving "empty land" behind them. Such news were confirmed also by police constable whom I reported about the theft in my garden.

The Latvian news channels now weekly show people stealing gas from pumps and from trucks. Actually the funniest fact is that the "most needy" are the owners of SUV's who fake their car registration plates, and thus simply tank&leave from gas stations. Statoil and other gasoline retail market participants have been even discussing reintroduction of prepayment system in gas stations. Economists and foreign experts speak openly about economic crisis in Latvia and such news are confirmed by a number of factories closed. Yesterday machine tools producer Rebir announced that they are relocating to China. Some months ago Riga Yeast Factory was closed due to the sugar reform in Latvia. Thus molasses was stopped to be produced in Latvia, and to import it from Belarus was too expensive to the new owners of the factory.

The only entity that stubbornly refuses to admit that crisis is there is the government. Last week during the weekly Kas Notiek Latvijā? TV show the PM explained that he would accept the existence of crisis in the Latvian economy only if the GDP growth would turn out to be negative, thus even 0,1% economic growth does offer some optimism to him...whatta number cruncher he is:)

While wrangling with his numbers the rest of governing coalition wrangles with the head of the KNAB, Mr Loskutovs. On Wednesday the governmental commission headed by the Prosecutor General must pass their verdict. Lets wait and hear...