Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Disagreements in the governing coalition? (updated)

LETA just announced that Fatherland Union (TB/LNNK) nominated Einārs Cilinskis declined the offer and would not become the Minister of Economics in the government of Aigars Kalvītis (People's Party). The announcement most probably reflects yesterdays speculations about the fact, that he was nominated in return for positive TB/LNNK vote en bloc against Mr Loskutovs in Saeima tomorrow. This is just a first crack in the governing coalition, but it could lead to the positive voting outcome in Saeima after all. "Waking up" of TB/LNNK is too late and pollsters show that they have no chance to cross the parliamentary threshold if elections should take place today. Thus, was the TB/LNNK tactics to wait till the public opinion boils over and then come as saviours in hitting the last nail into government's coffin, thus earning additional brownies? Dont know, but late the announcement came.

If TB/LNNK decision to recall their Minister of Economics nominee is coordinated party decision then it shows, that there are splits within TB/LNNK. It means that in tomorrow's voting process one cannot arithmetically subtract 8votes from 59 member majority in the parliament. Also two members of the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS), Messrs Visvaldis Lācis and Leopolds Ozoliņš cannot be counted. The first one announced that he would vote against suspension of Mr Loskutovs, and the second member of ZZS is on sick leave. After Madam Ambassador speech yesterday it was People's Party member Vaira Paegle who behaved diplomatically, thus could also she abstain from brainless rock solid governing coalition behaviour?

Diena editor Sarmīte Ēlerte has called citizens to come to the Saeima building and follow the voting procedure of Latviam MP's tomorrow. I am definitely going and perhaps there will be more folks than during passing the budget in the first reading. Only God knows whether government might fall after slight possibility of aborted vote of suspending Mr Aleksejs Loskutovs from the position of the head pf the Anti Coruption Agency?


LETA announced (11:00 CET) that President Valdis Zatlers considers the decision of the government as too harsh and that puts the head of Latvian government under severe test( The incumbent president called up MP's to vote in tomorrow's vote of no-confidene reasonably, thus serving interests of all voters, and not just few chosen ones. I hope that the president understands consequences of his statement, because abortive vote of no-confidence would authomatically mean the fall of the existing government. The latest data of SKDS pollster shows that 62,1% of population does not trust the government and the 65,6% definitely harangue about the work of the parliament.

Disagreements in the governing coalition are becoming louder, and I would not be surprised, if there would be even more members of the governing coalition deciding to leave the sinking ship today (wondering, what is my classmate, Minister of Justice Gaidis Bērziņš still contemplating:). What else should the passangers of the delapidated Ms Latvia expect, when the captain (the PM) has left the ship actually for an informal meeting of the EU heads of states?? The end of the governing coalition is approaching and I hope that the incumbent president Valdis Zatlers would have so much willpower as to disband the parliament after resignation of the existing government!


Anonymous said...

I think the vote will be very telling -- it will also show how much money and how it's being spread from the powers-in-charge.

Zatlers is still being a little weak in the vertebrae (perhaps he needs to operate on himself), and I fear the "Iron Lady" will have less impact than she thinks she'll have (she, and all of us, will be disappointed how little influence she has outside of office).

The problem is until Latvian politics moves from post-Soviet to European, there's no hope even if there are fresh Saeima elections. If political parties are based around personalities (and how much they hate or love each other), it looks more FSU than EU.

Latvia had a chance in the 1990s to create real platform-based party politics but each election period brought a "knight in shining armour" (Cevers, Skele, Repse, etc). And for most people who are in the centre-right of politics, their vote is essentially which one of the idiots they hate less.

There's only a few "good guys" left and they have little clout left. If anything, if Pabriks was not around, this government would be completely morally bankrupt.

So even if things shift and we end up with Saeima elections in the approaching winter, what will happen? Still the same idiots running things, and more people will probably "fall" into the Daugava...


Baltic said...

Prior Saeima voting there will be demonstration in front of the Saeima tomorrow morning. I am going and shall see how many of responsible citizens shall arrive?

About VVF impact I agree with you 100% and I asuume that her time has passed. Transition from post-Soviet into European political culture is taking place right at this moment. The party membership is increasing and I assume that with it also ideological platforms shall be formed. It is obvious that in the transition from traditional into rational legal authority parties would behave in catch all party manner, isnt it so? Look what happened in the US in the early 20 th cebntury, remember the party machines:)

About new people after the snap elections I am positively inclined, and shall talk more when I see how many people actually would come in front of the parliement tomorrow.